Modeled monthly sea
ice concentrations at the four different core locations.
Yuan et al. (LDEO Columbia University), 5.08 (+ / - 0.51), Statistical The prediction is made by statistical models, which are capable to predict Arctic sea
ice concentrations at grid points 3 - month in advance with reasonable skills.
These are spatial plots of the date at which
the ice concentration at a given location first drops below 15 %.
Not exact matches
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«While
concentrations measured in Antarctic
ice cores are very low, the records show that atmospheric
concentrations and deposition rates increased approximately six-fold in the late 1880s, coincident with the start of mining
at Broken Hill in southern Australia and smelting
at nearby Port Pirie.»
It also eliminates much of the uncertainty surrounding potentially ill effects; whereas various mathematical models may disagree about when and
at what
concentrations Arctic Ocean sea
ice disappears, they all agree that
at roughly 3 degrees C of warming, the far north will be
ice - free.
«The rise
at the end of the
Ice Age and today is about the same [a rise of 100 ppm] and we're going to be well above and beyond,» most likely increasing
concentrations of greenhouse gases by hundreds of parts per million from preindustrial levels, Shakun notes.
Year - round
ice - free conditions across the surface of the Arctic Ocean could explain why Earth was substantially warmer during the Pliocene Epoch than it is today, despite similar
concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, according to new research carried out
at the University of Colorado Boulder.
«When carbon dioxide
concentrations and temperatures rise, then mixed - phase clouds will increase their liquid water content,» said Ivy Tan, a PhD candidate
at Yale University who led the research, which investigated common clouds that contain both
ice and water.
Patrick Crill, an American biogeochemist
at Stockholm University, says
ice core data from the past 800,000 years, covering about eight glacial and interglacial cycles, show atmospheric methane
concentrations between 350 and 800 parts per billion in glacial and interglacial periods, respectively.
At the poles, gamma - ray data from Mars Odyssey show high
concentrations of hydrogen — «the
icing on the cake,» Head says.
Then they mixed the CNFs into
ice cream
at varying
concentrations, ranging from zero up to three - tenths of a gram per 100 grams of the dessert.
The Mars Express observations hint
at greater methane
concentrations over areas containing subsurface water
ice.
Spleen cells (1 × 106) were incubated with hamster anti-murine αβTCR (Accurate Chemical, Westbury, NY), hamster anti-murine γδTCR (GL3; kindly provided by Leo LeFrancois, University of Connecticut, Farmington, CT), or PE - conjugated rat anti-Thy 1.2 (PharMingen, San Diego, CA)
at a
concentration of 1 μg / ml for 30 min on
ice, and washed three times in HBSS.
If nothing is done to stop the increase in the
concentration of CO2, sea level rise will not stop
at 20 ft.. The Arctic sea
ice has nearly gone.
This week, Arctic sea
ice extent - that is, the total ocean area in which the
ice concentration is
at least 15 percent - was
at 1.96 million square miles.
There is evidence that Earth has gone through
at least one globally frozen, «snowball» state in the last billion years, which it is thought to have exited after several million years because global
ice - cover shut off the carbonate - silicate cycle, thereby allowing greenhouse gases to build up to sufficient
concentration to melt the
ice.
In one sentence: Researchers
at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory found that when miniscule particles of airborne dust, thought to be a perfect landing site for water vapor, are modified by pollution, they change cloud properties via
ice crystal number
concentration and
ice water content.
Briefly, the cells were washed in
ice - cold PBS and resuspended in binding buffer
at a
concentration of 1 × 106 cells / mL.
CO2 will also diffuse through the
ice at a set rate and the effect over time will be that the CO2
concentration will be a function of the vapor pressure of the CO2 in the trapped air, and the rate of diffusion of the CO2 through the
ice.
... Polar amplification explains in part why Greenland
Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet appear to be highly sensitive to relatively small increases in CO2
concentration and global mean temperature... Polar amplification occurs if the magnitude of zonally averaged surface temperature change
at high latitudes exceeds the globally averaged temperature change, in response to climate forcings and on time scales greater than the annual cycle.
If you look
at anomalies in
ice concentration, you'll see that the eastern Arctic is below normal whereas the western Arctic is above normal.
Note that part of the uncertainy in all this is the time uncertainty — from the
ice core records, we can pick a rather precise time and look
at a rather precise number for greenhouse gas
concentrations, but pinning down the magnitude albedo change
at exactly the same time (since albedo is not globally uniform, obviously) is impossible.
Alarmed
at the pace of change to our Earth caused by human - induced climate change, including accelerating melting and loss of
ice from Greenland, the Himalayas and Antarctica, acidification of the world's oceans due to rising CO2
concentrations, increasingly intense tropical cyclones, more damaging and intense drought and floods, including glacial lakes outburst loods, in many regions and higher levels of sea - level rise than estimated just a few years ago, risks changing the face of the planet and threatening coastal cities, low lying areas, mountainous regions and vulnerable countries the world over,
The thrust of my question is this: If we were in the future looking
at ice cores from the last few years with today's best available scientific practices, would we be able to measure today's rapid change in atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentration?
Dr. Will Chapman's Cryosphere Today web page offers an archive of daily polar sea
ice cap
concentrations (1979 — present)
at:
Figure 1 shows the
concentration of multi-year
ice (MYI) in the western channel of the Northwest Passage
at the end of May this year and for the past four years compared to the 1981 - 2010 climatology.
She and her co-author, Harry Stern, principal mathematician
at the PSC, used 35 years of satellite data to examine sea
ice concentrations around the entire Arctic.
Spatial distribution of multi-year
ice concentration (in tenths) within the Western Parry Channel region of the Northwest Passage
at the end of May.
Determining the mechanisms and feedbacks involved in climate change
at the end of the last
ice age therefore requires an understanding of the relationship between the southern margin
ice retreat and connected meltwater events to atmospheric and sea surface temperatures,
ice - rafting Heinrich events, sea level rise, and atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations.
This hindcast uses two time - varying inputs: 10 - meter wind vectors from the atmospheric model NAVGEM (Navy Global Environmental Model, Hogan et al. 2014) run
at the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), and analyses of
ice concentrations (also produced
at FNMOC) from passive microwave radiometer data (SSM / I).
They used the very advanced ECMWF seasonal prediction model
at high resolution and prescribed various sea -
ice concentrations, ENSO states, as well SST and solar forcings.
please read Z. Jaworowski's (with Segalstad and Ono) many papers on this subject of trapped gases in glaciers, where he discusses the over 20 mechanical and chemical processes that make accurate measurements impossible; even in shallow cores above the point where co2 is supposedly permanently trap in
ice cavities in the firn, co2
concentrations are already 20 - 40 % lower than those measured in air
at mauna loa.
Arctic sea
ice extent reconstruction - Kinnard et al. 2011 Sea
ice albedo feedback - NASA Polar jet stream - NC State University Greenland
ice sheet surface melt - NASA Permafrost distribution in the Arctic - GRID - Arendal Atmospheric methane
concentration - NOAA ESRL Russia plants flag
at North Pole - Reuters
These NASA provided images show the minimum arctic sea
ice concentration in 1979,
at left, and in 2003.
If you watch the NRL Hycom animations (sequences of daily arctic
ice concentration) or look
at velocity maps, a lot of the arctic cap flows south.
Measuring the distance apart and speed of 2 satellites in space orbiting the earth to the width of a human hair with no margin for error [damn those drift recalculations], and taking into account unknown factors with respect to the true values for water depth, water weight
at different salt
concentrations,
ice depth magma flows, volcanic activity etc [ie making a lot of guesses], plus taking human motivation on board [like CO2 increase must melt
ice surely] can give you an accurate measurement of the volume
ice in Antarctica.
This estimate was refined by Hansen and Nazarenko (2004), who used measured BC
concentrations within snow and
ice at a wide range of geographic locations to deduce the perturbation to the surface and planetary albedo, deriving an RF of +0.15 W mâ $ «2.
Annual Antarctic sea
ice extent (total area of
at least 15 %
ice concentration) for selected years since 1979.
The vulnerable nations declared that they are, «Alarmed
at the pace of change to our Earth caused by human - induced climate change, including accelerating melting and loss of
ice from Greenland, the Himalayas and Antarctica, acidification of the world's oceans due to rising CO2
concentrations, increasingly intense tropical cyclones, more damaging and intense drought and floods, including Glacial Lakes Outburst Floods, in many regions and higher levels of sea - level rise than estimated just a few years ago, risks changing the face of the planet and threatening coastal cities, low lying areas, mountainous regions and vulnerable countries the world over...»
Salby's numbers for thermal influence on CO2
concentrations are an order of magnitude too high, and back - casting those to the last
ice age indicates zero (that is, absolutely none
at all) CO2, which would have killed off all vegetable life on the planet.
Scientists
at the University of Bremen calculate AMSR2 sea
ice concentrations daily in near real time.
A 40 %
concentration cutoff; open water areas could have sea
ice at concentrations less than 40 %.
Sea
ice concentration from the Hamburg Group, Lars Kaleschke and Tom Agnew suggest that there were large regions of low sea
ice concentrations (black regions) within the boundary of sea
ice extent
at the end of July
He notes that
ice concentrations in Nares Strait
at the end of June were close to 100 % with a
concentration of multi-year
ice at 45 %.
In fact the earth still manages to go into and out of
ice ages on a regular bases regardless of what the CO2
concentration is
at the time.
Extent here is defined as the total area of
ice with
concentration (over an area of
at least 100 square kilometers) greater than 15 %.
Also of note is new data showing large regions of low sea
ice concentrations within the boundary of sea
ice extent
at the end of July.
The fourth core, Core PS2138 - 2, is located
at the Barents Sea continental margin, an area with a seasonal sea
ice cover and a strong influence of warm Atlantic Water inflow today (Fig. 1; ca. 4/10 summer sea
ice concentration).
A look
at Arctic sea
ice concentration over the last 100 years (through 2013) using the latest NSIDC gridded 1850 - reconstruction from Walsh et al. [2016].