ice core data which show a smaller, and less abrupt decline at the end of the 16th century.
I prefer to think Steve has (finally) motivated the Aussies to release
ice core data which should have been released a decade + ago.
This is the common sceptic claim that «the prediction is that CO2 is a major driver is refuted by
the ice core data which shows it isn't, therefore, CO2 is not a major driver of climate change»
Not exact matches
The researchers studied temperature measurements over the last 150 years,
ice core data from Greenland from the interglacial period 12,000 years ago, for the
ice age 120,000 years ago,
ice core data from Antarctica,
which goes back 800,000 years, as well as
data from ocean sediment
cores going back 5 million years.
It is much cheaper to test
ice cores,
which capture years of
data in one
core, than to do repeated air sampling over time.
The
ice core data also shows that CO2 and methane levels have been remarkably stable in Antarctica — varying between 300 ppm and 180 ppm — over that entire period and that shifts in levels of these gases took at least 800 years, compared to the roughly 100 years in
which humans have increased atmospheric CO2 levels to their present high.
The paleoclimate
data,
which included mainly changes in the oxygen isotopes of the calcium carbonate deposits, were then compared to similar records from other caves,
ice cores, and sediment records as well as model predictions for water availability in the Middle East and west central Asia today and into the future.
Joanne also discusses using
ice core data,
which is generally reliable.
Other tree ring
data, 10 Be
data, orbital satellite
data, borehole
data,
ice coring data, etc. show, for example, the lengthy medieval warming
which is practically absent from the hockey stick.
Indeed, Gore could have used the
ice core data to make an additional and stronger point,
which is that these
data provide a nice independent test of climate sensitivity,
which gives a result in excellent agreement with results from models.
We know from
data that we have caused the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere to rise sharply during the past century: it is now much higher than any time during the past 650,000 years (
which is as far back as reliable
ice core data exist).
An uncertainty in some
ice core results is somehow «translated» into a statement about current CO2 emissions
data in the 20th and 21st centuries (
which can be measured precisely).
As Richard Alley has shown in a couple of papers, the
ice core data of DO events are entirely consistent with stochastic resonance —
which is not chaos but arises from a simple threshold process («flicking of a switch») in the presence of noise.
For one thing, the timing with the industrial revolution is hard to dismiss as a coincidence, especially since it is known that CO2 levels haven't been as high as they are now for at least ~ 1 million years (over
which we have very good
data from
ice cores) and likely for the last 20 million years.
>... there are still ways of discovering the temperatures of past centuries,... tree rings...
Core samples from drilling in
ice fields... historical reconstruction... coral growth, isotope
data from sea floor sediment, and insects, all of
which point to a very warm climate in medieval times.
The highly accurate
ice core data sets rathr precise dates for three major (and tropical) eruptions for
which previous studies by traditional methods of paleogeology gave only poorer approximations.
Which is not surprising, given that the
ice core data suggest that this feedback only sets in with a delay of hundreds of years after the warming starts.
The pre-1960
data,
which comes from
ice core samples, has many more problems.
That is the case for Buch's measurements, except for the trip to Spitsbergen and back
which had an enormous variability (even there with the
ice core data within the range).
For instance, here's the
data for delta - oxygen - 18 from a stack of 57 ocean sediment
cores,
which is considered an excellent proxy for global
ice volume, known as the «LR04 stack» (from Lisiecki, L.E., & Raymo, M.E. 2005.
fhhaynie For the empirical
ice core and proxy temperature
data on
which the 1000 year cycle is based see Figs 6 and 7 in the latest post at http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com Interestingly Fig 6 also suggests that if you believe (
which I obviously don't) that CO2 is the main climate driver - its long term effect is to cool the earth.
exactly... i recall seeing a graph produced from
ice core samples in
which the CO2 content of thousands of years past was measured against tree ring
data... what it showed was CO2 levels rising 300 years after rapid vegetative growth (natural warming) and incidently the PPM of CO2 measured higher than current levels.
This work is the first to consistently recreate the event by computer modeling, and the first time that the model results have been confirmed by comparison to the climate record,
which includes such things as
ice core and tree ring
data.
This is only suggested by
ice -
core paleoclimate
data which is ultimately uncheckable by direct empirical observation.
And this is a crucial point; Salby's conclusions are based on the best measurements; his critics are rabbiting on about
ice core data and other proxies
which are up there with how's your mother in terms of evidence.
The 1942 «peak» is nowhere seen in any other direct measurement (high resolution
ice cores from Law Dome) neither in stomata
data for the past century, neither in coralline sponges, the latter based on 13C / 12C ratio's
which certainly should change if there was an important change in inputs or outputs from vegetation or oceans.
These have been observed in the paleo record including
ice core data plus many historical references, so are very likely to be real (unlike unicorns,
which have only been sighted after a night of heavy drinking).
A longer time scale AMO component of 45 — 65 years,
which has been seen clearly in the 20th century SST
data, is detected only in central Greenland
ice cores.
«They're talking about the instrumental
data which is unaltered — but they're talking about proxy
data going further back in time, a thousand years, and it's just about how you add on the last few years, because when you get proxy
data you sample things like tree rings and
ice cores, and they don't always have the last few years.
This is the time - span over
which temperatures with annual resolution can be calculated using hemispheric - wide tree - ring,
ice -
cores, corals, and other annually - resolved proxy
data.
For the South Pole
Ice Core project, in which scientists drilled a core from 2014 to 2016 and continue the research today, Casey and her NASA colleagues helped analyze satellite, airborne and field data to select a place to drill the ice co
Ice Core project, in which scientists drilled a core from 2014 to 2016 and continue the research today, Casey and her NASA colleagues helped analyze satellite, airborne and field data to select a place to drill the ice c
Core project, in
which scientists drilled a
core from 2014 to 2016 and continue the research today, Casey and her NASA colleagues helped analyze satellite, airborne and field data to select a place to drill the ice c
core from 2014 to 2016 and continue the research today, Casey and her NASA colleagues helped analyze satellite, airborne and field
data to select a place to drill the
ice co
ice corecore.
An important point,
which we have discussed elsewhere on attribution of CO2 in the
Ice Cores, when comparing
data looking for signals, is that we are making reasonable assumptions about what we would expect to see before we looking at the
data.
Atmospheric CO2, CH4 and N2O have varied almost synchronously with global temperature during the past 800000 years for
which precise
data are available from
ice cores, the GHGs providing an amplifying feedback that magnifies the climate change instigated by orbit perturbations [29 — 31].
Then we use available long - term proxies of the solar activity,
which are 10Be isotope concentrations in
ice cores and 22 - year smoothed neutron monitor
data, to interpolate between the present quiet Sun and the minimum state of the quiet Sun.
Climate change doubters used this analysis to support their belief that — despite climatological
data which includes 800,000 year
ice -
core records of atmospheric carbon dioxide — humans have not affected the atmosphere by releasing billions of tons of carbon dioxide per year.
Also, some proxies show here that the last 3 million years, p.CO2 often could be similar — or higher — than the present (also in the period in
which we have
data from
ice cores).
So, there is a conflict with the
ice core data,
which says that CO2 has been well behaved.
Stomata
data are in no way «better» than
ice core CO2
data, they are proxy's of local CO2 levels, not like
ice cores which are direct measurements of CO2 in the ancient bulk (95 %) of the atmosphere, be it averaged over several years to several centuries, depending of the snow accumulation rate of the
ice core.
If you want
data from approximately the same location, just compare the four
ice core records shown,
which are all from Antarctica, with the South Pole
data.
This curve is statistically speaking a «random walk», with no robust statistical correlation with atmospheric CO2,
which has seen no cycles but has increased at a fairly constant CAGR of around 0.4 % per year since measurements started at Mauna Loa in 1958 and at an estimated somewhat slower rate before this, based on
ice core data.
The issue, beyond the
core data representing but a single geospacial location and thus by itself not representative of the whole (and much larger) region in
which it resides, is that the
core is near the Greenland summit (in order to get the deepest profile of the
ice possible) and therefore at an elevation of over 2 miles above sea level.
In this link https://bravenewclimate.com/2016/09/10/open-thread-26/#comment-470348 I briefly outline the results of an important paper
which uses Liang causality, a statistical notion superior to the older Granger causality, to analyze the climate
data, both
ice core and recent, to obtain the expected result that CO2 Liang causes global warming in recent times but the opposite conclusion for the paleodata.
To make it clear: nobody ever has «but» the
ice core data and atmospheric
data together, without counting the layers for
ice (
which is the age at closing depth) and the CO2 level changes in firn (
which give a nice trend from atmospheric to closing depth).
Therefore we have no later
ice core data, but we have firn
data,
which show a further increase of CO2 until current levels.
Yet the article presents charts based on
ice -
core data,
which show a 1000 - year lag, with CO2 lagging temperature.
IPCC has been myopically fixating on the recent «blip» in our climate (measured since 1850, but with emphasis starting around 1976), trying to tie it to another «blip» in atmospheric CO2 (measured since 1958, with some somewhat questionable
ice core data before 1958),
which IPCC is assuming has come from anthropogenic sources.