Similarly, I've got the Vostok
ice core temperature record heading your way soon.
A full 900,000 years of
ice core temperature records and carbon dioxide content records show CO2 increases follow increases in Earth's temperature instead of leading them.
Not exact matches
Understanding
temperature swings is important for interpreting Antarctic
ice -
core records, says Turner.
It's OK to state that, «The common belief that carbon dioxide is driving climate change is at odds with much of the available scientific data: data from weather balloons and satellites, from
ice core surveys, and from the historical
temperature records» when this is clearly untrue.
«
Ice cores only tell you about temperatures in Antarctica,» Shakun notes of previous studies that relied exclusively on an ice core from Antarctica that records atmospheric conditions over the last 800,000 yea
Ice cores only tell you about
temperatures in Antarctica,» Shakun notes of previous studies that relied exclusively on an
ice core from Antarctica that records atmospheric conditions over the last 800,000 yea
ice core from Antarctica that
records atmospheric conditions over the last 800,000 years.
But the
ice core - derived climate
records from the Andes are also impacted from the west — specifically by El Niño, a temporary change in climate, which is driven by sea surface
temperatures in the tropical Pacific.
In the past decade, paleoclimatologists have reconstructed a
record of climate change over the last millennium by consulting historical documents and examining indicators of
temperature change like tree rings, as well as oxygen isotopes in
ice cores and coral skeletons.
That
record of CO2 levels and
temperature, called the European Project for
Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA)
core, was published in Nature in 2004.
Utilizing the high resolution of the measurements, the team was able to detect methane fingerprints from the Southern Hemisphere that don't match
temperature records from Greenland
ice cores.
Researchers took a
core sample of the
ice from the cave, giving scientists their first
records of winter
temperatures in the region.
study published June 25 by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the Greenland
ice core drifts notably from other
records of Northern Hemisphere
temperatures during the Younger Dryas, a period beginning nearly 13,000 years ago of cooling so abrupt it's believed to be unmatched since.
The present
ice ages are the most studied and best understood, particularly the last 400,000 years, since this is the period covered by
ice cores that
record atmospheric composition and proxies for
temperature and
ice volume.
It is important to remind everyone that i) we expect CO2 to lag behind
temperature in
ice core records, because of feedbacks, and ii) that the Antarctic
cores are not a global
temperature record.
The existence of a Little
Ice Age from roughly 1500 to 1850 is supported by a wide variety of evidence including ice cores, tree rings, borehole temperatures, glacier length records, and historical documen
Ice Age from roughly 1500 to 1850 is supported by a wide variety of evidence including
ice cores, tree rings, borehole temperatures, glacier length records, and historical documen
ice cores, tree rings, borehole
temperatures, glacier length
records, and historical documents.
By W. Jackson Davis, Peter J. Taylor and W. Barton Davis Abstract We report a previously - unexplored natural
temperature cycle
recorded in
ice cores from Antarctica — the Antarctic Centennial Oscillation (ACO)-- that has oscillated for at least the last 226 millennia.
More recent studies, with much more precise correlation between
ice cores and global
temperature records, have shown that
temperature and CO2 changed synchronously in Antarctica during the end of the last
ice age, and globally CO2 rose slightly before global
temperatures.
Sure, just as with the interaction between CO2 and
temperature, as
recorded in the
ice core readings, the rise in
temperature precedes the rise in CO2, wrongly suggesting that a rising
temperature will produce a rise in CO2.
The rates in these two terrestrial
records are comparable to those in Greenland
ice cores, but the actual
temperatures inferred apply to the terrestrial environments of the two regions.
Second, although the central Greenland
ice -
core records may provide the best paleoclimatic
temperature records available, multiple parameters confirm the strong
temperature signal, and multiple
cores confirm the widespread nature of the signal, the data still contain a lot of noise over short times (snowdrifts are real, among other things).
In my briefings to the Association of Small Island States in Bali, the 41 Island Nations of the Caribbean, Pacific, and Indian Ocean (and later circulated to all member states), I pointed out that IPCC had seriously and systematically UNDERESTIMATED the extent of climate change, showing that the sensitivity of
temperature and sea level to CO2 clearly shown by the past climate
record in coral reefs,
ice cores, and deep sea sediments is orders of magnitude higher than IPCC's models.
CO2 in
ice core records has followed not proceeded
temperature changes, indication that it is a proxy of
temperature not a cause of the change.
After scientists have done the hard work of working out these relations, it is possible to use one
ice -
core record to represent broader regions IF you restrict consideration to the parts that are widely coherent, so it is O.K. to plot a smoothed version of an Antarctic
temperature record against CO2 over long times and discuss the relation as if it is global, but a lot of background is required.
Additionally, they take the ratio of
temperature change to CO2 change in the
ice core record and assume that is the climate sensitivity of climate to CO2 as opposed to the other way around.
You may now understand why global
temperature, i.e. ocean heat content, shows such a strong correlation with atmospheric CO2 over the last 800,000 years — as shown in the
ice core records.
Combined climate /
ice sheet model estimates in which the Greenland surface
temperature was as high during the Eemian as indicated by the NEEM
ice core record suggest that loss of less than about 1 m sea level equivalent is very unlikely (e.g. Robinson et al. (2011).
It is important to remind everyone that i) we expect CO2 to lag behind
temperature in
ice core records, because of feedbacks, and ii) that the Antarctic
cores are not a global
temperature record.
When I give talks about climate change, the question that comes up most frequently is this: «Doesn't the relationship between CO2 and
temperature in the
ice core record show that
temperature drives CO2, not the other way round?»
Indeed, Claude Lorius, Jim Hansen and others essentially predicted this finding fully 17 years ago, in a landmark paper that addressed the cause of
temperature change observed in Antarctic
ice core records, well before the data showed that CO2 might lag
temperature.
There is other evidence that can be used to calculate the
temperatures and CO2 levels before the times
recorded in the
ice cores, and also during the times of the
ice cores.
We don't really know the magnitude of that lag as well as Barton implies we do, because it is very challenging to put CO2
records from
ice cores on the same timescale as
temperature records from those same
ice cores, due to the time delay in trapping the atmosphere as the snow is compressed into
ice (the
ice at any time will always be younger older than the gas bubbles it encloses, and the age difference is inherently uncertain).
Or again, in the
ice core records,
temperature is clearly driving the CO2 levels with a lag of about 800 years.
Suffice it to say that the GISP2
ice core recorded temperatures much higher for most of the past 4,000 years.
In the
ice core records of the
ice ages, it appears that CO2 levels may follow
temperature increases, rather than vice versa.»
Allegedly, there's a correlation between CO2 and
temperature in the
ice core records.
Based on the GISP2
ice core proxy
record from Greenland it has previously been pointed out that the present period of warming since 1850 to a high degree may be explained by a natural c. 1100 yr periodic
temperature variation (Humlum et al., 2011).
It's also clear that there is a mismatch between the
temperature reconstructions and the
ice core record.
There is a misconception that
ice core data tells the local
temperature record.
«The hypothesis that the CO2 rise during the interglacials caused the
temperature to rise requires an increase of about 6 °C per 30 % rise in CO2 as seen in the
ice core record.
As we know dust both blocks sunlight (cooling the Earth) and fertilizing the oceanic biotica (sequestrating atmospheric CO2) I suggest that Dust causes the changes in the
temperature and CO2
recorded in the
ice cores.
To answer the question of the Medieval Warm Period, more than 1,000 tree - ring,
ice core, coral, sediment and other assorted proxy
records spanning both hemispheres were used to construct a global map of
temperature change over the past 1,500 years (Mann 2009).
The «hockey stick» describes a reconstruction of past
temperature over the past 1000 to 2000 years using tree - rings,
ice cores, coral and other
records that act as proxies for
temperature (Mann 1999).
The amplitudes of the pre-industrial, decadal - scale NH
temperature changes from the proxy - based reconstructions (< 1 °C) are broadly consistent with the
ice core CO2
record and understanding of the strength of the carbon cycle - climate feedback.
I agree to a large extent with these points, with some nuance: Based on physics, there must be a small influence of CO2 levels on
temperature, but until now, that is not measurable in the data
records (neither in detailed
ice core records).
And according to scientists who have 800,000 years of carbon
records derived from glacial
ice core samples, there is a strong link between earth
temperatures and increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.
Rather, the
ice core record shows clearly that changes in
temperature precede changes in carbon dioxide throughout the glacial - interglacial cycle (Mudelsee, 2001), and that for the last half million years the climate system has oscillated in a self - limiting way between glacials and interglacials by about 6 deg.
The true believer in AGW can look at the
ice core record and see, for example: 800 years with
temperatures rising while CO2 is low and falling; 4000 years with both CO2 and
temperature rising; then 400 years with
temperatures falling while CO2 is high and rising, and say that we do not know what caused the first and last of those periods, but over the majority of the period (4000 out of 5200 years) the two were in step.
The
ice cores can provide an annual
record of
temperature, precipitation, atmospheric composition, volcanic activity, and wind patterns.
When sceptics look at statistical data, whether it is recent
ice melt, deep sea
temperatures, current trend in global surface
temperatures, troposphere
temperatures,
ice core records etc. they look at the data as it is without any pre-conceptions and describe what it says.
Figure 1: Northern Hemisphere
temperatures were reconstructed for the past 1000 years (up to 1999) using palaeoclimatic
records (tree rings, corals,
ice cores, lake sediments, etc.), along with historical and long instrumental
records (WMO 2000).
On this basis we can estimate the 2xCO2 climate sensitivity, based on IPCC's
ice core estimated of pre-industrial CO2 levels and current Mauna Loa CO2 measurements plus the 161 - year HadCRUT surface
temperature record.