Snow and
ice cover increased 1 % globally and 4 % in the Arctic.
This year's record high temperature and low sea
ice cover increases concerns about what will happen next in the Arctic and globally.
Zhakarov's model is conceptually simple: during periods of high precipitation when winter ice forms readily, summer
ice cover increases, the atmosphere cools, the arctic front together with its associated rain belt shifts south so that freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean decreases, and winter ice cover is thicker, has a deeper draft, and so survives better in summer.
Not exact matches
Indeed, Arctic change in the last two decades has been profound — not just dwindling sea
ice, but also noticeably
increased precipitation, and thus snow
cover, over Eurasia.
The result: Surface temperatures
increased rapidly, especially in the Arctic, which saw its September sea
ice cover shrink by 25 percent.
If the planet is
covered by an immense amount of water, the pressure at the bottom of the ocean will
increase to such an extent that water occurs in the form of «
Ice VII,» which does not exist on Earth.
Although the
ice cover has
increased over the past few years, the Arctic's sea
ice is now much thinner than it was just a few years ago, making it more vulnerable to future warming.
«One societally relevant implication is that more storminess probably means more erosion of Arctic coastlines, especially in tandem with declines in buffering sea
ice cover and
increases in thawing coastal permafrost,» concluded Dr. Vavrus.
Melting can be rapid: as the last
ice age ended, the disappearance of the
ice sheet
covering North America
increased sea level by more than a metre per century at times.
That's important — changing sea
ice, changing lake
ice, changing snow
cover,
increasing shrubs — but I wanted the book to enrich that picture, by describing those changes through the human lives that experience them.
Whales may actually benefit from less
ice cover, at least initially, as the open water could expand their feeding habitats and
increase food supplies.
«Because these plants are photosynthetic, it's not surprising to find that as the amount of sea
ice cover declined, the amount of [photosynthesis]
increased,» says biological oceanographer Kevin Arrigo of Stanford University's School of Earth Sciences, who led an effort to use the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) devices on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites to determine changes in phytoplankton growth.
Mouginot et al. report that between 2002 and 2014, the area
covered by the glacier's
ice shelf shrank by 95 %; since 1999, the glacier's flow rate has nearly doubled; and its acceleration
increased threefold in the fall of 2012.
This sets up a competition of sorts between higher snowfall, which
increases the Arctic
ice cover, and the higher temperatures that melt it.
As a result of atmospheric patterns that both warmed the air and reduced cloud
cover as well as
increased residual heat in newly exposed ocean waters, such melting helped open the fabled Northwest Passage for the first time [see photo] this summer and presaged tough times for polar bears and other Arctic animals that rely on sea
ice to survive, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
«While more research should be done, we should be aware that an
increasing number of studies, including this one, suggest that the loss of Arctic sea
ice cover is not only a problem for remote Arctic communities, but could affect millions of people worldwide.»
The knock - on effects of such a transition would be huge — they would cause marked
increase of warming at the pole, since open water absorbs more of the sun's energy than
ice -
covered seas.
Furthermore, we must understand how changes in sea
ice cover affect the feeding ecology of humpback whales and their competitors in the short - term and the dynamics of krill populations over the longer term, particularly given the
increasing pressure from commercial krill harvests [36].
Thousands of studies conducted by researchers around the world have documented changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; diminishing snow
cover; shrinking sea
ice; rising sea levels; ocean acidification; and
increasing atmospheric water vapor.
Since IPCC (2001) the cryosphere has undergone significant changes, such as the substantial retreat of arctic sea
ice, especially in summer; the continued shrinking of mountain glaciers; the decrease in the extent of snow
cover and seasonally frozen ground, particularly in spring; the earlier breakup of river and lake
ice; and widespread thinning of antarctic
ice shelves along the Amundsen Sea coast, indicating
increased basal melting due to
increased ocean heat fluxes in the cavities below the
ice shelves.
He then uses what information is available to quantify (in Watts per square meter) what radiative terms drive that temperature change (for the LGM this is primarily
increased surface albedo from more
ice / snow
cover, and also changes in greenhouse gases... the former is treated as a forcing, not a feedback; also, the orbital variations which technically drive the process are rather small in the global mean).
Therefore a statistic that combines average global temperature, global humidity, and the negative of
ice cover should
increase every year.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are
increasing its concentration in the atmosphere, raising temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists in equilibrium with water /
ice, would precipitate out if not for the CO2, so acts as a feedback; since the oceans
cover so much of the planet, water is a large positive feedback; melting snow and
ice as the atmosphere warms decreases albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming than the global average; decreasing the temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are
increasing in amplitude and slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its driving gradient decreases; the larger slower meanders
increase the amplitude and duration of blocking highs,
increasing drought and extreme temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
It's a short (10 question) poll,
covering topics like the rate of CO2
increase, predicted future temperatures, sea
ice and sea level states, and hurricane frequencies.
There will be enhanced melting of the
ice cover and an
increase in the amount of sunlight available in the upper ocean.
If we take the largest decline (1,500 km3 / year) in Arctic
ice cover of the last decades together with the
increase in precipitation over the Arctic (500 km3 / year), then this is completely dwarfed by the 115,000 - 230,000 km3 in one year which is supposed to have slowed down (not even stopped) the THC.
However as the area was
ice covered at that time
increased insolation wouldn't have caused high temperatures, although inflow of air or large leads / polnyas could.
The southern polar region has already been cooling for several years, with an
increasing ice cover.
But on the bright side, he noted, in a joking reference to the meeting's Danish hosts, the retreat of the sheath of
ice covering Greenland, which is Danish - controlled territory, «would
increase your usable land by, I don't know, 10,000 percent.»
If the heat transport by the Atlantic thermohaline circulation suddenly
increases for some reason (we'll come to that), Greenland suddenly gets warm (an effect amplified by receding sea
ice cover of the seas near Greenland) and Antarctica starts to cool.
And may I add looks remarkably similar to the idealized deformation of the polar vortex under scenarios with Arctic warming, low Arctic sea
ice and
increased Siberian snow
cover presented in my recent review paper with Jennifer Francis [of Rutgers University].
With the Arctic melting season over for 2008,
ice cover will continue to
increase until melting begins anew next spring.
* Because of
increased dust, cloud
cover and water vapor ``... the planet will cool, the water vapor will fall and freeze, and a new
Ice Age will be born,» Newsweek magazine, January 26, 1970.
Is the
increased forcing from heat absorbed in the Arctic from the drop in snow
cover and Arctic Sea
Ice included in the Charney sensitivity or is it part of the larger Earth System Sensitivity?
Dave Cooke (# 303), +4 C per doubling is a somewhat higher than usual (but still reasonable) number that includes feedbacks such as an
increasing amount of atmospheric H2O but also non-greenhouse effects such as a diminshed reflective
ice cover on the surface of the planet.
Maue discussed how «two camps» of researchers claim to have
increased predictability of such weather events over periods of a month or more by using clues either in the Arctic, related to the extent of sea
ice and snow
cover, or in the temperature of surface waters across the Pacific Ocean.
There are several things that are well proven and simple to understand — for example, global termperature
increase, sea level rise, polar
ice cover, glacier retreat, and snow
cover.
That was due to
increased global moisture content, decreased global average cloud
cover and decreased sea
ice extent at high latitudes.
All climate models tell us that it is the Arctic sea
ice cover that declines first, and that Antarctic
ice extent falls only later, and may even (as observed) temporarily
increase in response to changing patterns of atmospheric circulation.
And as that permanent
ice cap grew it would
cover an increasingly larger area and reflect an
increasing amount of incoming sunlight back to space (less energy in), causing earth as a whole to cool.
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally
increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an
increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while sea
ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when
ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow
cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
This would certainly explain why arctic sea
ice cover has been absolutely crashing in recent years while the HARDCRU / GISS global average temps had been
increasing more modestly.
Given the level of denialism in the face of glacial mass loss, plummeting Arctic summer
ice cover, progressive collapse of
ice shelves that have been stable for 6000 to 10000 years, northward, upward, and seasonally earlier movements of ecosystems and other phenological changes,
increasing Greenland
ice melt, and all the other direct observations of global warming, I think denialists will go to their graves believing it can't be happening.
One reason I suspect this happened is because decreasing
ice and snow
cover increased the lapse rate overall in the lowest ~ 1 - 1.5 kilometers of the lower troposphere.
Remote sensing data shows that the area
covered by
ice lakes within the Qomolangma National Nature Reserve in Tibet
increased to 114 square kilometres in 2013, up from 100 square kilometres in 1990.
The influence of anthropogenic forcing has also been detected in various physical systems over the last 50 years, including
increases in global oceanic heat content,
increases in sea level, shrinking of alpine glaciers, reductions in Arctic sea
ice extent, and reductions in spring snow
cover (Hegerl et al., 2007).
The warming of approximately 0.1 — 0.2 °C per decade that has resulted is very likely the primary cause of the
increasing loss of snow
cover and Arctic sea
ice, of more frequent occurrence of very heavy precipitation, of rising sea level, and of shifts in the natural ranges of plants and animals.
I'm wondering about Transantarctic mountains, altitude, humidity, dehumidification,
increased cloud
cover and the creation of more Antarctic
ice through this process.
Add a dramatic
increase of CO2 and methane emissions to the albedo declines of sped up Arctic
ice and snow
cover losses and you may still witness a runaway situation.
Over tens of thousands of years, Milankovich cycles have
increased and decreased seasonality, leading to periods of greater
ice cover which in turn reflect away sunlight, cooling the planet.