It is clear that the trend of Arctic sea
ice decline indicates that it'll be ice - free for an increasingly large part of the year, with consequences for the climate.
Not exact matches
However, this year's
ice cover remains far below the 1981 - 2010 average,
indicating an ongoing, long - term
decline of
ice because of warming temperatures, according to scientists.
I would say that this
indicates a changed dynamic in the Arctic, especially when viewed as part of the long - term
decline of the
ice cap.
The credible scientific studies I can find
indicate that the observed Arctic sea
ice decline has accellerated in recent years, which would make a linear interpolation a really lousey estimate with which to predict the future.
Arctic sea
ice is melting, but the Antarctic has cooled for 30 years and the sea
ice there is growing, so the
decline in Arctic sea
ice does not
indicate a global problem.
Although July data
indicated that the sea
ice might be on track for a slight recovery from 2007 (though still well below «normal» climatological conditions), new sea
ice data and weather forecasts show that total
ice extent in early August
declined at about twice the rate of any other time this summer.
Simulating the variation of the
ice sheet's albedo using a regional climate model — Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR), which some members of the team helped develop —
indicated that increasing temperatures and melting accompanied by snow grain growth and greater bare
ice exposure account for about half the
decline, the scientists report.
The absence of anomalous features evident in 2007 in SLP and stratospheric and surface winds in spring in 2011
indicates that accelerated
decline associated with the former will not be an artifact of dynamical phenomena, although a thinner and more mobile
ice cover may lower the wind forcing threshold required for increased
ice export.
Miller assumes (reasonably enough) that the moss was engulfed by
ice cap expansion — the expansion
indicating a
decline in temperature — and that the moss has not been subsequently exposed (since it degrades relatively rapidly upon exposure).
A report published online by World Climate Report for the science and public policity institute says there exist historic observations, as well as currently active research efforts, that strongly
indicate that there was a large sea -
ice extent
decline from about the mid-1920s to the mid-1940s.
Arctic summer sea
ice is in rapid
decline [2nd lowest extent on record after 2007, and perhaps more importantly, the lowest volume of
ice ever — this, along with the methane increase, could
indicate a tipping element has been crossed that will kick climate change into a higher gear]
The study also
indicates that
declining sea
ice off the peninsula is causing greater mixing in the Southern Ocean, said co-author Doug Martinson, an oceanographer at Columbia University's Lamont - Doherty Earth Observatory.
The fact that polar
ice is disappearing faster than predicted from the models along with permafrost
decline and more besides seem to
indicate to many climate scientists (who incidently appear profously in the Fred Pearce book — the last generation) that human induced climate change is happenning faster than can be explained by the primarily linear models.