No, Climate Change Deniers and Patsies, Wider Arctic
Ice Extent Compared to Last Year's Record Low Does Not Mean «Climate Change is Dead» NOAA: 2012 Was Hottest Year on Record.
Further, it only took one month of persistent wind conditions to slow the rate of sea ice loss, resulting in an increase in 2009 sea
ice extent compared to 2007 and 2008.
The remaining estimates fall into «high» and «low» extent groupings: the low extent group with a range of 4.2 to 4.7 million square kilometers, representing a continued loss of sea
ice extent compared to 2008/2009, and the high extent group of 5.4 to 5.7 million square kilometers, suggesting a return to the long - term trend for summer sea ice loss.
However, a number of models that have fairly thick Arctic sea ice produce a slower near - term decrease in sea
ice extent compared to observations (Stroeve et al., 2007).
The June Outlook for arctic sea ice in September 2010 shows reasonable arguments for either a modest increase or decrease in September 2010 sea
ice extent compared to the last two years (5.4 million square kilometers in 2009 and 4.7 million square kilometers in 2008).
Not exact matches
The greatest difference
compared with other comparable services is that traditionally they only tell about the
extent of the
ice or snow situation.
Ola Johannessen and his colleagues at the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre in Bergen base their claims on an analysis of two consecutive series of data on the
extent of the
ice packs which have previously been impossible to
compare.
The algorithm allowed the team to
compare the
extent of sea
ice over the whole period from 1978 to 1994.
A composite image shows how the
extent of Arctic sea
ice in September 2016
compared with a 30 - year average for the month (yellow line).
Satellites show the
extent of Arctic sea
ice on Sept. 16, 2012 as
compared to the average minimum from the past 30 years (yellow line).
Comparing the dataset with modern satellite records, the researchers find that Antarctic summer sea
ice extent was «surprisingly comparable» to what it is today.
«What this study shows is that summer sea
ice in the Antarctic might not be particularly sensitive to a warming climate
compared to the Arctic, however it does leave open the possibility that there has been a decrease in
ice extent of at most 14 %.»
Just look at the plots taken from CMIP4 and CMIP5 models when they are
compared with measured
extents from NSIDC data then tell us where you would place your bet for a summer free of sea
ice.
Just look at the plots taken from CMIP4 and CMIP5 models when they are
compared with measured
extents from NSIDC data then tell us where you would place your bet for a summer free of sea
ice.
Check out the difference in
extent of most mountain glaciers
compared to 30 years ago, or the
extent of sea
ice in the arctic ocmpared to a few decades ago.There are many manifestations all around us.
For the latest forecasts of this summer's Arctic
ice retreat, have a look at Sea Ice Outlook 2009, an effort to collate and compare a variety of studies aiming to project the minimum ice extent each summ
ice retreat, have a look at Sea
Ice Outlook 2009, an effort to collate and compare a variety of studies aiming to project the minimum ice extent each summ
Ice Outlook 2009, an effort to collate and
compare a variety of studies aiming to project the minimum
ice extent each summ
ice extent each summer.
In other words, the reading for May 2008 is
compared to the
ice extent from May 2007 and also to the average, for the month of May, from 1979 - 2000.
The graph below (high - resolution copy) shows the range of the forecasts for early September, the point when the sea
ice typically reaches its minimum
extent,
compared to recent years and the average over the period of precise satellite measurement.
Any curve that represents the sea
ice extent this year can not be
compared to last year's curve — it would be
comparing apples to oranges.
This increase was based on the June
ice extent remaining within 1 sigma of the 1981 - 2010 long - term mean and nearly average melt pond coverage
compared to recent years.
To illustrate that last point, this animation
compares 25 March 2011
ice extent on Greenland's northeast coast with 25 March, 10 April, and 01 June 2010.
In that sense one could argue that Arctic sea
ice extent at least in 1940 was «very low»
compared to the early and mid 20th Century, but
compared to the past 20 years it was actually very high.
This begs the obvious question - in the scientific literature, how does Arctic sea
ice extent during the period 1938 - 43
compare to the rest of the 20th Century and current levels?
Will an excess of 2.0 Mkm ^ 2 in September be «trivial»
compared to a total of 20.0 Mkm ^ 2 sea
ice extents?
Comparing the mean
extent for 1999 — 2008, with the July 2008
extent we see a slightly greater
ice extent west of Franz Josef Land (FJL), and a slightly smaller
extent east of FJL.
NSIDC reported that the 2010 seasonal sea
ice maximum was quite late (31 March
compared to the climatological date of 26 February) and the total maximum
ice extent approached the climatological mean.
Ice coverage in summer 2007 reached a record minimum, with ice extent declining by 42 % compared to conditions in the 198
Ice coverage in summer 2007 reached a record minimum, with
ice extent declining by 42 % compared to conditions in the 198
ice extent declining by 42 %
compared to conditions in the 1980s.
Figure 5
compares the April 2011
ice extent with previous years.
When
comparing the
ice extent for July 2007 with that of 2008 between Svalbard and FJL, the
ice edge was much further north in 2007 than in 2008.
Comparing the latest
ice age data from Maslanik and Fowler (see Maslanik contribution) for 21 June 2010 (Figure 6) to current (20 July)
ice extent data shows that the
ice edge has retreated back to the boundary between first - year and multi-year
ice pack in the eastern Arctic and in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas.
Looking at AR5, these seem to be the take away messages: «
Comparing trends from the CCSM4 ensemble to observed trends suggests that internal variability could account for approximately half of the observed 1979 — 2005 September Arctic sea
ice extent loss.»
Figure 1: This image
compares the average sea
ice extent for September 2007 to September 2005; the magenta line indicates the long - term median from 1979 to 2000.
Again, we are
comparing these Outlook values to the September average sea
ice extent as provided by NSIDC.
While the winter / spring 2008 sea -
ice extent has rebounded from the 2007 negative mega-anomaly, the age - class distribution at present is negatively skewed
compared to satellite climatology and even the values for 2007, as is
ice concentration within the
ice - ocean margin that defines
extent.
Even if the 2008 summer sea
ice minimum
extent appeared to be slightly above the 2007 all - time record minimum, according to passive radiometers, it does not seem like the
ice mass budget is significantly different in 2008
compared with 2007.
Compared to last year, the sea -
ice extent is similar, but the
ice age data indicates that the
ice pack is more vulnerable to loss this year.
Another way to look at sea
ice extent it to
compare the current level to long term averages.
Both 2007 and 2008 qualify as major outliers
compared to previous summer minimum sea
ice extents over the last three decades.
Sea
ice extent in both 2012 and 2007 represent large reductions
compared to the preceding year.
We
compared 23,000 days of observations in those records with late twentieth - century observations, and concluded that the
extent of the sea
ice at the end of winter was pretty much the same in the nineteenth and late twentieth century, but that the end - of - summer Arctic sea
ice retreat is greater today than it was then.
A notable feature of the 2013
extent is an
ice «tongue» between Franz Josef Land and Novaya Zemlya; further west, the
ice extent is relatively far north
compared to previous years.
It should be recalled that we are
comparing these Outlook values to the September average sea
ice extent as provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSID
ice extent as provided by the National Snow and
Ice Data Center (NSID
Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
For example Arctic Sea
Ice volume and
extent has not dramatically declined this year as
compared to the last few more recent years.
Satellite data reveal how the new record low Arctic sea
ice extent, from Sept. 16, 2012,
compares to the average minimum
extent over the past 30 years (in yellow).
While the initial
ice cover is remarkably low in the Barents and Kara seas, the forecast suggests limited reductions in
ice extent on the Pacific side of the Arctic as
compared with recent years.
If the increasing number of sunspots would bring the Arctic index into «a positive phase» as well, then temperature isolation of the High North would in the winters months improve
compared to recent years [which brought temperature records over Greenland and the Arctic Ocean — and a smallest
ice extent last winter], perhaps allowing for some extra sea
ice recovery.
But looking at the May 2016 melt pond fraction in our sea
ice simulation, the pond fraction is higher in the Kara Sea, north of Svalbard and in the Fram Strait
compared to May 2015 and with a lesser
extent to May 2012, but lower in the East Siberian Sea and the Arctic Basin.
Compared to the Arctic, Antarctic sea -
ice extent is not as strongly influenced by recent global warming, with year - to - year climate variability still playing a large role in year - to - year changes in Antarctic sea -
ice extent.
At the same time, they point towards below normal
ice extent in the Barents / Kara Sea, also
compared to the record minimum in 2007, which they see coupled to oceanic processes and promoting further warming of surface waters in the region.
The study was conducted by climate researchers at the University of Reading, and it approximates that the
extent to which the Antarctic summer sea
ice has diminished doesn't exceed a 14 percent rate
compared to the beginning of the 20th century.