If these sources are used, the corresponding mean monthly
ice extent values can be adjusted by an offset to roughly correspond to the NSIDC value.
If other data sources for sea ice extent are used, the corresponding mean monthly
ice extent values can be adjusted by an offset to roughly correspond to the NSIDC value.
MASIE products include an ASCII text file of sea
ice extent values in square km for each Arctic region, time series plots, and image files that visually show where the sea ice is.
MASIE products include an ASCII text file of sea
ice extent values in square km over the entire Northern Hemisphere with 16 separate Arctic regions identified, time series plots of the 16 regions, and image files that visually show where the sea ice is.
Ice extent values at the end of the first week in August suggest a different ice evolution than that from the end of July (Stroeve, Kaleschke).
It's interesting to notice the same denier crowd «accidentally» neglects to mention the up to ~ 7 % measurement error in
ice extent values at certain times of the year when trumpeting «record ice extent in Antarctica».
The twentieth century sustained the lowest maximum sea
ice extent values since A.D. 1200.
By month's end, daily sea
ice extent values were record low.
Daily sea
ice extent values were record low throughout the month.
With observations from early summer, the projected median
ice extent value increased to 4.9 million square kilometers for the July Outlook.
When considering the success and accuracy of a given method, it is important to take into account whether and how the area of
ice extent value is obtained and if this value is significantly different than the NSIDC value.
Based on winter air temperatures and sea ice extents and thickness, a September 2016 minimum
ice extent value of 4.3 million km2 is heuristically predicted.
Not exact matches
Whilst remaining (2006) the market leader in the UK for individual hand - held products such as Cornetto and Magnum, and
value - added multi-portion products designed to be eaten at home, such as Viennetta, the Wall's brand faces severe competition from the major supermarket brands and to a lesser
extent from Nestle and Mars spin - off
ice cream products.
The scientists summarize: «The low Arctic sea
ice extent ranks amongst the low
values of the last decade.
The exact date and
value of the minimum sea
ice extent in 2017 can only be determined in the coming weeks, after a significant increase.
Low maximum sea
ice extent also occurred over periods of some decades (e.g., mid-seventeenth and mid-eighteenth centuries, early fifteenth and late thirteenth centuries), with absolute
values in some cases as low as the twentieth century ones, but these periods were in no case as persistent as in the twentieth century. . .
You complain that there was no mention of Arctic Sea
Ice Extent in the Guardian article reporting exceptional warm temperatures up in the high Arctic yet I contrasted that report of exceptional warmth with JAXA Arctic SIE
values of recent days.
I have often used quadratic fits of annual minimum Arctic sea
ice extent to forecast the future
value.
Just to return to one of the suggested topics, Arctic sea
ice extent appears to have passed its minimum for this year with a
value higher than has recently been the case.
Using comprehensive data sets of observations made between 1979 and 2001 of sea
ice thickness, draft,
extent, and speeds, we find that it is possible to tune model parameters to give satisfactory agreement with observed data, thereby highlighting the skill of modern sea
ice models, though the parameter
values chosen differ according to the model forcing used.
If you plot the average Arctic Sea
Ice extent for 20 years, the you should also plot the monthly maximum and minimum
values on the same figure so that we can get some perspective on where the 2007 and 2008 data falls in the context of annual variability, or examine for trends.
If, and this is THE big IF, we have finally passed one of the climate tipping points, then all past statistics are of no
value in predicting the new dynamics of
ice extent in the arctic.
... June sea
ice extents in 2008 and 2007 are essentially identical, and near the lowest
values for June ever recorded by satellite for the Arctic....»
WattsUpWithThat.com, 4.9, Heuristic Website devoted to climate and weather polled its readers for the best estimate of 2012 sea
ice extent minimum by choosing bracketed
values.
With 19 responses for the Pan-Arctic Outlook (plus 6 regional Outlook contributions), the June Sea
Ice Outlook projects a September 2012 arctic sea
extent median
value of 4.4 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.3 and 4.7 million square kilometers (Figure 1).
NASA GMAO (Cullather et al.), 5.03 (+ / - 0.41), Modeling The GMAO seasonal forecasting system predicts a September average Arctic
ice extent of 5.03 ± 0.41 million km2, about 4.7 percent less than the 2014
value.
Our model predicts that September 2015 Arctic sea
ice extent will be 2.11 million km2 below the 1982 to 2011 observed average
extent, but will not reach
values as low as those observed in 2007 or 2012.
With regard to the Outlook estimates for the past two years, the median
values for June outlooks for sea
ice extent were within 0.1 million square kilometers (msk) of the observed
values of 4.9 msk in 2010 and 4.6 msk in 2011.
With regard to the Outlook estimates for the past three years, the median
values for June outlooks for sea
ice extent were within 0.1 million square kilometers (msk) of the observed
values of 4.9 msk in 2010 and 4.6 msk in 2011, but the June Outlook
value of 4.4 msk in 2012 was well above the extreme observed September
value of 3.6 msk.
Provided that ocean and atmospheric conditions favor rapid melting in June and July, which we feel are still likely, it is therefore hypothesized that the 2013 fall sea
ice extent will achieve
values comparable to those of 2012, with regional losses governed by local wind and
ice conditions and dynamics.
Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook
values (June Report) for September 2013 sea
ice extent (
values are rounded to the tenths).
Klazes (Public), 3.6 (95 % confidence interval of + / - 0.9), Statistical September
extent is predicted using an estimated minimum
value of the PIOMAS arctic sea
ice volume and a simple model for volume -
extent relationship.
The mean
extent of the
ice has been decreasing since 1980 from the average winter
value of 15,600,000 km2 (6,023,200 sq mi) at a rate of 3 % per decade.
However, despite the fact that their own data show that sea
ice extent stayed at that
value for three days, NSIDC has chosen the last day of that 3 - day period rather than the first to represent the 2015 minimum.
Does this suggest a new level of reduced summer
ice extent persisting at around 5.0 million square kilometers, relative to a
value of 6.0 million square kilometers in the early 2000s?
Given the minimum
ice extent is about 4 million km2 and 4000 km3 (an average of 1 meter thickness) the SMOS data is of limited
value.
Remember: You do not need any more than 15 % concentration of sea
ice in a «grid cell» to be counted in the
extent value.
But, in general, the sea
ice extent should attain a higher
value than last year.
Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook (June Report)
values for September 2010 sea
ice extent.
With 19 responses for the pan-arctic (and 7 for the regional outlook), including several new contributors, the June Sea
Ice Outlook projects a September 2011 arctic sea
extent median
value of 4.7 million square kilometers (Figure 1).
Red horizontal arrow indicates interval with increased Atlantic Water (AW) inflow, characterized by minimum PIP25
values (minimum sea
ice extent)(from ref.
Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook
values (August Report) for September 2012 sea
ice extent.
NSIDC is not the only data source for
ice extent; their estimate is based on a long - term time series and we use their
value as an operational definition.
Lukovich et al, 4.3, n / a, Heuristic It is hypothesized that the 2012 fall sea
ice extent will attain
values comparable to those of 2011 based on a heuristic assessment of sea
ice and surface atmospheric dynamics, with regional losses governed by local wind and
ice conditions.
Previous maximum melt
extent values since 1978 (when satellite obseravations begin, this is what NASA meant by «unprecedented») are under 60 % of the
ice sheet area.
The consensus is for continued low
values of September 2012 sea
ice extent.
Again, we are comparing these Outlook
values to the September average sea
ice extent as provided by NSIDC.
Using this approach the mean (50th percentile) of the forecast distribution suggests a
value for sea
ice extent of 4.67 Million square Kilometers, with a 5 - 95th percentile range (3.64, 5.76) and «likely range» (33 - 66 %) of (4.38, 4.97).
The sea
ice monthly extent for September 2012 was 3.6 million square kilometers, based on National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) estimates, a full 1.0 million square kilometers below the 2011 value (Figure
ice monthly
extent for September 2012 was 3.6 million square kilometers, based on National Snow and
Ice Data Center (NSIDC) estimates, a full 1.0 million square kilometers below the 2011 value (Figure
Ice Data Center (NSIDC) estimates, a full 1.0 million square kilometers below the 2011
value (Figure 1).
While the winter / spring 2008 sea -
ice extent has rebounded from the 2007 negative mega-anomaly, the age - class distribution at present is negatively skewed compared to satellite climatology and even the
values for 2007, as is
ice concentration within the
ice - ocean margin that defines
extent.