A sea
ice free summer arctic within 30 years: an update from CMIP5 models.
we are talking about several hundred years with
an ice free summer arctic.
Not exact matches
Virtually
ice -
free summers in the
arctic sea could well arrive by 2030, with troubling implications for accelerated albedo feedback and possibly disruptive changes in the jet stream.
An
ice -
free arctic in the
summer won't get rid of the need for
ice - breakers in fall, winter, and spring.
I think what Alastair is alluding to is the fact that, say by 2050 when the
arctic ocean will conceivably be
ice -
free in the
summer, the atmosphere will have a much higher relative humidity than it has currently because of the open air = water interface, so this will have a magnifying effect beyond just the feedback from increased CO2.
If some suitably huge area of the
arctic is totally
free of
ice this
summer, could it then be claimed with confidence that this was the first time such a large region was
free of
ice in «x» years, where x is some largeish number like 50,000 or 100,000?
The
arctic will be
ice free in
summer within 5 - 6 years, progressing rapidly to all the remaining 9 months of the year as the
arctic ocean continues to warm.
as you can see both show no death spiral, nor is the
arctic going to be
ice free this
summer as opined back in 2007 by some of their ilk
Tagged annual
summer minimum,
arctic sea
ice, Beaufort Sea, body condition, Cherry, Chukchi, declining sea
ice, Eastern Beaufort, good news, heavy sea
ice, Hudson Bay,
ice -
free Arctic, litter size, loss of
summer ice, Pilfold, polar bear, record low, Regehr, ringed seals, Rode, sea
ice extent, Southern Beaufort, Stirling,
summer ice minimum,
summer sea
ice, thick spring
ice
Tagged adaptation,
Arctic,
arctic seals, biological responses, climate change, climate extremes, Cronin, evolution, facts, genetics, glacial, he,
ice -
free summer, information, interglacial, LGM, marine mammals, paleoclimate, polar bear, resilience, sea
ice, USGS, walrus
All of this will be over by 2015, when the records of 2010 and 1998 will have been obliterated by increased solar activity, ENSO and decreased albedo as we go into virtually
ice free arctic summers, oh and increased GHG concentrations of course.
There appears to be evidence that the
arctic was
ice free (in
summer) in Viking times, which would make sense considering they were farming on Greenland in those days.
And seems to me that this large increase of 2 C in global temperatures would probably include
arctic polar
ice melting in
summer, so as to allow
ice free travel in
arctic during most
summers.
On current trends, we will see the first
ice free arctic summer (90 days
ice free) in 2016; 2017 at the latest.
I fully expect to see our first essentially
ice free arctic summer day to week in September of 2015.
MODELING OF FUTURE
ARCTIC SEA
ICE CHANGE «Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October — November of 2007 at less than 9,000 km3 (Kwok et al. 2009), one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly
ice -
free Arctic Ocean in
summer.»
Was it the IPCC TAR or the AR4 which said a
summer arctic sea
ice free event was unlikely to happen until the 2090s; the end of the century?
Yet, we know that the
arctic has already been
ice -
free in
summer before.
But nothing like the catastrophe we have been led to believe, with many alarmists claiming there would be an
ice -
free arctic last
summer due to global warming (in fact, much of the big decline in 2007 was due to changes in wind patterns, not temperature).
«with many alarmists claiming there would be an
ice -
free arctic last
summer due to global warming»