Arctic Sea
Ice Hockey Stick: Melt Unprecedented in Last 1,450 years by Rob Painting, 24 November 2011 http://www.skepticalscience.com/Arctic-sea-ice-hockey-stick-melt-unprecedented-in-last-1450-years.html
Playing with a broken
ice hockey stick is a minor penalty.
The findings: a veritable Antarctic
ice hockey stick.
Second,
the Ice Hockey Sticks — almost the only remaining bit of visual science in the now - threadbare IPCC Summary For Policymakers and Synthesis Report —
the Ice Hockey Sticks which «show» a «sudden catastrophically big rises» in the concentrations of CO2, N2O and CH4 «since industrialization».
Not exact matches
To the surprise of everyone who knew about the strong evidence for the little
ice age and the medieval climate optimum, the graph showed a nearly constant temperature from the year 1000 until about 150 years ago, when the temperature began to rise abruptly like the blade of a
hockey stick.
Even now, the softball and glove belonging to a New York City fireman, or the
ice hockey and lacrosse
sticks belonging to a Cantor Fitzgerald employee, or carpentry tools belonging to an AON Corporation vice president — all displayed in a vitrine within the photo - gallery complex, along with many other personal effects — seem beside the point.
He is still
stuck playing heavy
hockey, trying to engage a cycle with big guys below the
icing line.
We offer public
ice activities such as public skate, birthday parties, broomball, and
stick & shoot and
hockey skills classes.
Just a couple months ago a youth
hockey coach in British Columbia was handed a 15 - day jail sentence for purposely
sticking out his foot in the post-game handshake line, which sent two kids tumbling to the
ice from the opposing team.
John Shuster delivered another Miracle on
Ice for the Americans, only this one came with brooms instead of
hockey sticks.
The total composite looks rather like the Mann et al 1999 NH reconstruction — the Medieval Warm periods (MWP) and Little
Ice Ages (LIA) are barely perceptible and the temperature proxy skies upwards (a bit like a «
hockey stick»!)
Other tree ring data, 10 Be data, orbital satellite data, borehole data,
ice coring data, etc. show, for example, the lengthy medieval warming which is practically absent from the
hockey stick.
If you look at the proxy portion of the new Moberg graphic, you see nothing that would be problematic for opponents of the
hockey stick: it shows a striking Medieval Warm Period (MWP), a cold Little
Ice Age and 20th century warming not quite reaching MWP levels by 1979, when the proxy portion of the study ends.
Later in the winter, Blackwell took the JX on a weekend trip with his buddies, cramming it with «cases of beer, duffel bags, poker chips,
ice skates,
hockey sticks, skis, and ski poles.
The headliner features a built - in
hockey coach's play board and the locker room - like rear cargo area features built - in compartments that house four carbon fiber
hockey sticks and two jerseys color matched to the exterior of the car, an
ice skate rack and glove hooks to dry out sweaty game - used equipment, and custom accent lighting.
The Forte 5 - door is finished with custom
ice - metallic gray exterior paint, 19 - inch blue alloy wheels, a custom body kit and Forte Koup front bumper with carbon fiber accents and LED «
hockey stick» fog lights, a quad - tipped exhaust, carbon fiber roof material and a lowered suspension.
Tasha enjoys hiding in leaf piles, playing with toys, playing boot
hockey on
ice,
sticks, chasing squirrels, long walks in the woods (sometimes accompanied), snow, sledding, boating, fishing, a good nap, and playing fetch.
Fights have been entirely revamped for NHL 14, which is pretty important considering that fighting is as much a part of
hockey culture as
ice and
sticks.
At least you appear to be one of the rare AGW» ers admitting the importance of solar forcing and who at the same time implicitly refutes Mann's
hockey stick by acknowledging the proxies that established the existence of the Little
Ice Age, and for that matter, the Medieval Warm Period.
Well, today, on the free - access part of the WSJ site, there appears an editorial titled «
Hockey Stick on
Ice: Politicizing the science of global warming.»
Having read the comments here and in Jones and Mann (2004) «Climate over past millennia», I have been reflecting on some of the comments about the
hockey stick wrt the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little
Ice Age (LIA).
Now, if you're fudging things just to get the «
Hockey Stick» (but missing the 8.2 ky event, the «Little
Ice Age» or the PETM), then that's just wrong and not scientific.
At least part of that controversy is today's Wall Street Journal editorial «
Hockey Stick on
Ice: Politicizing the science of global warming.»
The same issues have dogged other attempts by climate scientists to glean clues on climate trends from bodies of data collected by satellites and weather balloons for other reasons (not to mention ongoing attempts to discern climate patterns in tree rings,
ice layers, and other natural substitutes for thermometers; remember the «
hockey stick» debate?).
OK, so apart from the
Hockey stick graph, the disappearance of the Himalayan glaciers, the melting of summer Arctic sea
ice, the lack of hurricane activity, the erroneous relationship between malaria and global warming, the resilience of corals, the obstinacy of Tuvalu and the Maldives to disappear to the sea, the manipulation of instrumental temperature data... (Gasp for breath!)
The «
hockey stick» describes a reconstruction of past temperature over the past 1000 to 2000 years using tree - rings,
ice cores, coral and other records that act as proxies for temperature (Mann 1999).
For the IPCC both the MWP (Medieval Warm Period) and the LIA (Little
Ice Age) existed before the «
hockey stick,» so viewing the situation objectively — after the IPCC participated in the rewriting of history by showcasing the «
hockey stick as a part of the Left's efforts to manufacture a supposed consensus about climate change — the IPCC condoned a fraud that federal climatists to this very day persist in perpetrating on the public.
Hansen got the warming right in the 1980s, the
hockey stick is validated by numerous oth alternative research methods and ocean heat content and arctic
ice continue to rise and shrink as predicted from the understanding of the physical effect of CO2, as have air temperatures in the area.
Look, I dislike the phrase «
hockey stick»; it's clearly used by people who have little appreciation for the games of
hockey or cognition that
ice hockey and field
hockey sticks are radically different in shape..
«It potentially does,» admits Jones, but says that analyses using other methods — proxy temperature markers from
ice core samples, for example — still show much the same temperature change over the past 1,000 years, backing up Mann's
hockey stick.
Since the
hockey stick paper in 1998, there have been a number of proxy studies analysing a variety of different sources including corals, stalagmites, tree rings, boreholes and
ice cores.
His
Hockey Stick model wiped out both the Medieval Warming Period and the Little
Ice Age, both of which were well documented in history, literature, art and science.
My other point to him at the time was that the Industrial Revolution was actually quite limited and that it wasn't until the forties last century that industry spread, but he ignored this as he ignored the email about getting rid of the MWP and LIA and when I found the Vostok data, and began to appreciate the great cycles within our
Ice Age, he dismissed these too and came back to the claim that our temps had been «flat normal» and our fault that we were changing this by our increased production of carbon dioxide as the
Hockey Stick showed.
Not to mention that the «
hockey -
stick - like» CO2 data from
ice cores + modern measurements is a carefully crafted stalking horse — you have to ignore most pre-industrial measurements (cherry - picking the low ones) and also the bulk of the stomata proxies to believe it.
«The
hockey stick is broken,» «the world hasn't warmed in 16 years,» «Antarctic
ice is growing.»
It follows the
hockey stick in as much that shows a steadily declining temperature which kinnard mirrors with steadily increasing
ice,
The
Hockey Stick tacked onto a wall, polar bears on a floating sheet of
ice.
Their two main results are a confirmation that current global surface temperatures are hotter than at any time in the past 1,400 years (the general «
hockey stick» shape, as shown in Figure 1), and that while the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little
Ice Age (LIA) are clearly visible events in their reconstruction, they were not globally synchronized events.
Mann's
Hockey Stick work is not a piece of research that is open to challenge and review as would be normal scientific prat
ice, but an icon of «the cause» that like all religions icons can not be challenge nor reviewed.
Mann's 1998 «
hockey stick» eliminated from the historic record both the Medieval Warm Period and the Little
Ice Age.
The «hiding the decline» refers neither to Little
Ice Age (as the Spiked Online version says) nor the recent pause in the upward trend of temperatures, but rather the pasting of current temperature data onto some rather dubious proxy data to continue the
hockey stick pattern through the 20th century.
The «
hockey stick» graph rewrote history by erasing the Medieval Warm Period and the Little
Ice Age.
Current GCM models may have realistic - seeming weather patterns, but are totally incapable of producing phenomena that look like the Holocene (Little
Ice Age, Medieval Warm Period, Roman Warm Period, Holocene Optimum, the steady decline of temperature on average over the last 3,000 years, etc.) The Climate Science community has, instead, taken the path of trying to claim that these swings didn't occur (Michael Mann's «
Hockey Stick», etc.) This does not give me a lot of confidence in the rest of their «science».
On the Guardian's forums, you'll find endless claims that the
hockey stick graph of global temperatures has been debunked; that sunspots are largely responsible for current temperature changes; that the world's glaciers are advancing; that global warming theory depends entirely on computer models; that most climate scientists in the 1970s were predicting a new
ice age.
64) Michael Mann of Penn State University has actually shown that the Medieval Warm Period and the Little
Ice Age did in fact exist, which contrasts with his earlier work which produced the «
hockey stick graph» which showed a constant temperature over the past thousand years or so followed by a recent dramatic upturn.
• Postulate 1 The Mann / Kinnard / Marcot
hockey -
stick blade, and the Arctic sea -
ice death spiral, and the acceleration in sea - level rise - rate all are physically real and will be sustained throughout decades to come.
• Marcott et al publish a (self - admittedly) weak climate - change
hockey -
stick («Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea
ice over the past 1,450 years», Science 2013).
• Kinnard et al publish a strong climate - change
hockey -
stick («Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea
ice over the past 1,450 years», Nature 2011).
This newborn arctic
hockey stick is not supported by numerous older reconstructions, for example
ice cores from Central Greenland.
Ice core data supports the general cooling trend in case of the last 2000 years, but the
hockey stick shape is missing again: http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/histo4.png