Cooler temperatures revived sea
ice levels suggesting a rapid recovery was possible if global warming was curbed, scientists say
Not exact matches
David, after your post four days ago of a smug, smirking, fake - Beatle - esque - hairstyled Harper, I was going to
suggest that such images are dangerous to one's health since blood pressure increases to unhealthy
levels and said images be replaced by an
ice sculpture.
But new analyses like this, which show previously undiscovered deep canyons,
suggest that a good chunk of East Antarctica's bed lies below sea
level, rendering the
ice sheet less stable than previously thought.
The deep grooves under the massive
ice sheet could facilitate flow into the ocean, which
suggests sea
level rise estimates for this century need to be revised upwards
But recent studies of oxygen isotopes
suggest that the
level of CO2 was only a tenth of that required to melt the
ice.
A large area of the Greenland
ice sheet once considered stable is actually shedding massive amounts of
ice,
suggesting that future sea -
level rise may be worse than expected, a team of scientists warned yesterday in a new study.
Computer model simulations have
suggested that
ice - sheet melting through warm water incursions could initiate a collapse of the WAIS within the next few centuries, raising global sea -
level by up to 3.5 metres.»
A recent study by Robert Kopp at Princeton University (Nature, DOI: 10.1038 / nature08686)
suggests sea
levels were 8 to 9 metres higher than now during the last interglacial, in part due to the west Antarctic
ice sheet melting.
The results, in the October 15 Science, agree with theoretical predictions,
suggesting that superconducting gravimeters can help satellites chart the earth's gravity to map changes in polar
ice cap thickness, seawater
levels, atmospheric density and planetary geology.
The oxygen
levels also varied in step with water
levels as Rosetta flew around the comet,
suggesting that
ice and oxygen in 67P's atmosphere are coming from the same places in its nucleus.
Recent estimates
suggest the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet alone could contribute 3.3 metres to long - term global sea
level rise.
But in a second run, in which greenhouse gas
levels stopped rising after 2020, the sea
ice shrank until 2020 then recovered,
suggesting no tipping point had been passed.
«These findings add to mounting evidence
suggesting that there are sweet spots or «windows of opportunity» within climate space where so - called boundary conditions, such as the
level of atmospheric CO2 or the size of continental
ice sheets, make abrupt change more likely to occur.
TIPPING POINT A new record of the Antarctic
ice sheet's formation
suggests that carbon dioxide
levels in the atmosphere could soon reach a tipping point that will make the
ice sheet more vulnerable to melting.
Our study
suggests that at medium sea
levels, powerful forces, such as the dramatic acceleration of polar
ice cap melting, are not necessary to create abrupt climate shifts and temperature changes.»
The findings, published yesterday in the journal Science,
suggest scientists still have much to learn about the factors that govern the behavior of
ice sheets — knowledge that is crucial to developing more accurate projections of future sea
level rise.
The academics
suggest that the melting of the
ice sheet may have been caused in part by the fact that some of it rests in basins below sea
level.
Later on, other scientists
suggested that it was a global fall in sea
levels due to growing
ice sheets that cut the sea off from the Atlantic Ocean.
Molecular -
level simulations
suggested that these droplets almost immediately began forming two stacked layers of hexagonal 2 - D
ice, a form that Zeng previously discovered and dubbed Nebraska I
ice, a form that Zeng previously discovered and dubbed Nebraska
IceIce.
The study also finds that the Greenland
ice sheet may contain more
ice, with a greater potential to raise global sea
levels, than previous research has
suggested — about 2.75 inches more, to be exact.
Altogether, the new study
suggests that the
ice sheet has the potential to raise global sea
levels by about 24.3 feet, should it melt entirely.
The new evidence has the potential to alter perceptions about which planets in the universe could sustain life and may mean that humans are having an even greater impact on
levels of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere than accepted evidence from climate history studies of
ice cores
suggests.
, using different approaches, have posited that Antarctic
ice sheets could add as much as a metre to sea
levels by 2100, this new evidence
suggests ice loss on this scale is «implausible», the paper says.
Joughin et al. (2010) applied a numerical
ice sheet model to predicting the future of PIG, their model
suggested ongoing loss of
ice mass from PIG, with a maximum rate of global sea
level rise of 2.7 cm per century.
While some earlier studies, using different approaches, have posited that Antarctic
ice sheets could add as much as a metre to sea
levels by 2100, this new evidence
suggests ice loss on this scale is «implausible», the paper says.
Geologic shoreline evidence has been interpreted as indicating a rapid sea
level rise of a few meters late in the Eemian to a peak about 9 meters above present,
suggesting the possibility that a critical stability threshold was crossed that caused polar
ice sheet collapse [84]--[85], although there remains debate within the research community about this specific history and interpretation.
When there are alternative explanations for arctic
ice melt (historical writings that
suggest natural periods of very rapid decline, ever - increasing
levels of soot that can cause and accelerate melting), how can you be so certain that the cause is CO2 - induced?
1968 Studies
suggest a possiblity of collapse of Antarctic
ice sheets, which would raise sea
levels catastrophically.
«
suggesting that Arctic warming will continue to greatly exceed the global average over the coming century, with concomitant reductions in terrestrial
ice masses and, consequently, an increasing rate of sea
level rise.»
But I understand sea
level rise right now is actually towards the upper end of estimates so this
suggests either climate sensitivity is towards the high end, or
ice sheets are very sensitive to low or medium climate sensitivity.
(The recent work of Huybers and Langmuir
suggests that on
ice - age time scales, the loading and unloading of the planet by
ice growth / shrinkage and sea -
level fall / rise may weakly organize the volcanoes, but not a lot, and with nothing interesting for our time.)
In a more recent paper, our own Stefan Rahmstorf used a simple regression model to
suggest that sea
level rise (SLR) could reach 0.5 to 1.4 meters above 1990
levels by 2100, but this did not consider individual processes like dynamic
ice sheet changes, being only based on how global sea
level has been linked to global warming over the past 120 years.
We
suggest that
ice sheet disintegration is a highly nonlinear process and poses a danger of rapid sea
level rise.
Combined climate /
ice sheet model estimates in which the Greenland surface temperature was as high during the Eemian as indicated by the NEEM
ice core record
suggest that loss of less than about 1 m sea
level equivalent is very unlikely (e.g. Robinson et al. (2011).
ITM I am predicting that if wastewaters are cleaned up as
suggested then the rest of this hurricane season will be a fizzer and the Arctic
ice levels in Jan 09 will reach right up to the long term average
level.
Several studies (e.g. the one quoted by the correspondent)
suggest smaller
ice sheets and correspondingly a sea
level several meters higher than the present.
The corresponding future temperatures in Greenland are comparable to those inferred for the last interglacial period 125,000 years ago, when paleoclimatic information
suggests reductions of polar land
ice extent and 4 to 6 m of sea
level rise.
If all of the currently available carbon resources — estimated to be around 10,000 gigatons — were burned, the Antarctic
Ice Sheet would melt entirely and trigger a global sea -
level rise of more than 50 meters, a new long - term modeling study
suggests.
• Dynamical processes related to
ice flow not included in current models but
suggested by recent observations could increase the vulnerability of the
ice sheets to warming, increasing future sea
level rise.
Should the
ice sheet start to melt in a serious way (i.e. much more significantly than current indications
suggest), then lowering of the elevation of the
ice sheet will induce more melting simply because of the effect of the lapse rate (air being warmer closer to sea
level due to pressure effects).
Actual and projected emission
levels are already at the high end of Hansen's «alternative scenario» which was
suggested as an achievable outcome (based on significant control efforts) that kept forcings (including Co2, CH4 and black carbon) below a
level that Hansen considered would be «dangerous» (specifically a
level that would avoid the melting of any significant fraction of the WAIS or Greenland
ice sheet).
The reasonable agreement in recent years between the observed rate of sea
level rise and the sum of thermal expansion and loss of land
ice suggests an upper limit for the magnitude of change in land - based water storage, which is relatively poorly known.
The Royal Society report includes references to Clark et al, 2016 in Nature Climate Change,
suggesting the final sea
level rise on millennia timescale caused by anthropogenic climate change (partly depending on future emissions) lies in a range between 29 to 55 metres and to DeConto & Pollard, 2016 in Nature, a study
suggesting hydro - fracturing and
ice cliff collapse around Antarctic
ice sheets increases high end projection for sea
level rise by 2100 to ± 2 metres.
The GRACE observations over Antarctica
suggest a near - zero change due to combined
ice and solid earth mass redistribution; the magnitude of our GIA correction is substantially smaller than previous models have
suggested and hence we produce a systematically lower estimate of
ice mass change from GRACE data: we estimate that Antarctica has lost 69 ± 18 Gigatonnes per year (Gt / yr) into the oceans over 2002 - 2010 — equivalent to +0.19 mm / yr globally - averaged sea
level change, or about 6 % of the sea -
level change during that period.
Data on greenhouse gas abundances going back beyond a million years, that is, beyond the reach of antarctic
ice cores, are still rather uncertain, but analysis of geological samples
suggests that the warm
ice - free periods coincide with high atmospheric CO2
levels.
Their findings, published in Society's journal Weather, show for the first time that asperitas is a low
level cloud made of water — not
ice as previously
suggested — which develops its characteristic form from atmospheric disturbances, such as weather fronts and storms.
While the conditions in the geological past are useful indicators in
suggesting climate and atmospheric conditions only vary within a a certain range (for example, that life has existed for over 3 billion years indicates that the oxygen
level of the atmosphere has stayed between about 20 and 25 % throughout that time), I also think some skeptics are too quick to
suggest the lack of correlation between temperature and CO2 during the last 550 million years falsifies the link between CO2 and warming (too many differences in conditions to allow any such a conclusion to be drawn — for example the Ordovician with high CO2 and an
ice age didn't have any terrestrial life).
Some estimates
suggest that if Antarctica's
ice sheet melts completely, it would raise sea
levels by over 200 feet — enough to flood the planet's land masses.
Moreover, recent studies
suggest that
ice sheet loss is accelerating and that future dynamics and instability could contribute significantly to sea
level rise this century.
Recent work has
suggested that rapid retreat is already underway for sections of the West Antarctic
ice sheet, raising the possibility of increasing contributions to sea -
level rise.