«Our analyses highlight the potential for large reductions in the global Polar Bear population if sea -
ice loss continues, which is forecast by climate models and other studies (IPCC 2013).
But there is so much we can't yet know — including exactly how strong each of these trends will become as
ice loss continues, and how these and other developments will interact.
If both Greenland and West Antarctica shed the entirety of their ice burden, global sea levels would rise by 12 to 14 m. Although these icecaps would not disintegrate within a century, the loss of even a third of their mass — quite plausible if the rate of polar
ice loss continues to double each decade — would force up the oceans by at least 4 m, with disastrous socioeconomic and environmental consequences.
And if
ice loss continues to accelerate in the warming Arctic, this effect may only become more pronounced in the future.
The results do suggest however that if sea
ice loss continues as it has over recent decades, the risk of wet summers may increase.
Lead author Dr Malcolm McMillan from the University of Leeds said: «We find that
ice losses continue to be most pronounced along the fast - flowing ice streams of the Amundsen Sea sector, with thinning rates of between 4 and 8 metres per year near to the grounding lines of the Pine Island, Thwaites and Smith Glaciers.»
«However,
ice loss continued north of the Laptev Sea, opening up a gap in the ice cover that reduced extent.»
Not exact matches
This has
continued ever since and is responsible for the
ice loss we are observing today and over the last few decades.»
The
ice loss found in northeast Greenland is accelerating, and it is uncertain how many years it will
continue, he said.
The team say their findings demonstrate the potential for current
ice loss to
continue for several decades yet.
Based on what we know, we can expect the rapid
ice loss to
continue for a long time yet, especially if ocean - driven melting of the
ice shelf in front of Pine Island Glacier
continues at current rates,»
Faster than normal
ice loss rates
continued through August, a transition month when
ice loss typically begins to slow.
Whiteman and his colleagues concluded in the Science publication: «This suggests that bears are unlikely to avoid deleterious declines in body condition, and ultimately survival, that are expected with
continued ice loss and lengthening of the
ice - melt period.»
The dramatic
loss of Arctic sea
ice cover observed over the satellite era is expected to
continue throughout the 21st century.
But that could just be temporary: The spot may eventually succumb to
ice loss if warming
continues, she says.
The World Conservation Union projects the bears» numbers will drop by 30 % by 2050 (pdf) due to
continued loss of Arctic sea
ice.
The
continued swings in the Arctic Oscillation can make it difficult for climate scientists to determine how sea
ice loss is altering winter weather, since there is so much natural variability in the system in the first place.
The IPCC projects that
ice mass
loss from melting of the Greenland
ice sheet will
continue to outpace accumulation of snowfall.
People are also still looking for a weight
loss pill that will allow them to
continue eating country fried steak, massive cinnamon buns and
ice cream on a regular basis.
I remember only a few years ago people were talking about end of the century or later for
ice loss — and as events unfold we seem to be rapidly reeling this estimate in closer — prudence would lead me to assume it best to take a pessimistic view in case we
continue to shorten our estimates.
There
continues to be significant excess heat storage in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer due to
continued near - record sea
ice loss.
Whilst there has been a
continuing loss of thick multi-year
ice (Maslanik — drift age model) after the precipitous drop Nghiem 2008 revealed using QuikScat: This is in line with the arguments of Bitz & Roe — thicker
ice thins faster.
It is likely that the primary reason for the large
loss of
ice this summer is that the
ice cover has
continued to thin and become more dominated by seasonal
ice.
The thing is, Antarctic land
ice loss will
continue and accelerate as glacial terminators erode more and more quickly.
DSL: «The thing is, Antarctic land
ice loss will
continue and accelerate as glacial terminators erode more and more quickly.
Individual responses
continue to be based on a range of methods: statistical, numerical models, comparison with previous rates of sea
ice loss, composites of several approaches, estimates based on various non sea
ice datasets and trends, and subjective information (the heuristic category).
Furthermore, dissimilarity and a
continued loss in coherence in sea
ice drift patterns in March 2012 relative to March 2007 and 2011 suggests that spatiotemporal variability in fall
ice extent will be governed by local
ice conditions and
ice -
ice interactions as monitored by small - scale properties associated with sea
ice deformation.
It has come to the point that if we
continue losing mass in those areas, the
loss can generate a self - reinforcing feedback whereby we will be losing more and more
ice, ultimately raising sea levels by tens of feet.»
Individual responses
continue to be based on a range of methods: statistical, numerical models, comparison with previous rates of sea
ice loss, estimates based on various non-sea
ice datasets and trends, and subjective information (the «heuristic» category).
Most of the studies on the Arctic climate and
ice trends cited to support the proposed listing assumed that the buildup of heat - trapping gases was probably contributing to the
loss of sea
ice, or that the
continued buildup of these gases, left unchecked, could create
ice - free Arctic summers later this century, and possibly in as little as three decades.
The northern melting will likely add to sea level rise explains lead author, Shfaqat Abbas Khan: «If this activity in northwest Greenland
continues and really accelerates some of the major glaciers in the area — like the Humboldt Glacier and the Peterman Glacier — Greenland's total
ice loss could easily be increased by an additional 50 to 100 cubic kilometers (12 to 24 cubic miles) within a few years.»
The end result is the glaciers accelerate seaward, causing dynamic thinning, increased calving, and a large
loss of
ice mass that
continues until a new equilibrium is established.
Furthermore, the parameters for the certainty or uncertainty of
continued sea
ice loss can be established based on projections of total energy content in the Arctic environment.
A
continuing trend in glacier
loss will seriously decrease the water reserves stored as
ice, reducing melt season runoff.
The
loss of the normal ocean circulation could cause drastic shifts in weather patterns, and
continued loss of
ice in Greenland will lead to the
continued rise in sea level, threatening coastal cities around the globe.
Still, the consensus of a stable low level of sea
ice extent or
continued modest sea
ice loss is a strong result.
The remaining estimates fall into «high» and «low» extent groupings: the low extent group with a range of 4.2 to 4.7 million square kilometers, representing a
continued loss of sea
ice extent compared to 2008/2009, and the high extent group of 5.4 to 5.7 million square kilometers, suggesting a return to the long - term trend for summer sea
ice loss.
The natural variation that has led us out of the Little
Ice Age has a bit of frosting on the cake by land use; and, part of that land use has resulted in a change in vegetation and soil CO2
loss so that we see a rise in CO2 and the CO2
continues to rise without a temperature accompaniment (piano player went to take a leak), as the land use has all but gobbled up most of the arable land North of 30N and we are starting to see low till farming and some soil conservation just beginning when the soil will again take up the CO2, and the GMO's will increase yields, then CO2 will start coming down on its own and we can go to bed listening to Ave Maria to address another global crisis to get the populous all scared begging governments to tell us much ado about... nothing.
In many rivers fed by glaciers, there will be a «meltwater dividend» during some part of the 21st century, due to increasing rates of
loss of glacier
ice, but the
continued shrinkage of the glaciers means that after several decades the total amount of meltwater that they yield will begin to decrease (medium confidence).
«When you start looking at longer - term trends, 50 or 60 years, there's no escaping the
loss of
ice in the summer,» Kay said, telling LiveScience that «the long - term fate is basically sealed if we
continue to increase greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.»
The MDB average rainfall during the last three decades has been recording a 10 %
loss per decade, I believe this is primarily due to declining solar radiation levels, moving from the highest for 8000 years to presently the lowest for 100 years, this solar decline is expected to
continue for at least another 3 decades, maybe 6 decades like it did in the 16th century, brining on the last little
ice age.
Unlike 2007, however, August and September 2009 SLP patterns were not conducive to
continued sea
ice loss.
Relatively large daily
ice losses have
continued into early August, though they are less than the extreme
losses in early August 2012 that occurred in the wake of a strong cyclone that moved through the area and broke up the
ice in the Chukchi Sea.
Zwally deemed it necessary to acknowledge climate change fears and suggested that if the rate of dynamic thinning
continues, Antarctica could begin exhibiting a net
loss of
ice within the next 20 years, but only if there was no compensating snowfall.
Individual responses
continue to be based on a range of methods: statistical, numerical models, comparison with previous rates of sea
ice loss, estimates based on various non-sea
ice datasets and trends, and subjective information (i.e., the «heuristic» category).
Rather than the AD pattern being relevant and impacting the Beaufort Sea, a key factor for sea
ice loss in the last month is the strong
continuing positive North Atlantic Oscillation pattern bringing warm temperatures to the North of Eurasia (Figure 4).
Loss of glacial volume in Alaska and neighboring British Columbia, Canada, currently contributes 20 % to 30 % as much surplus freshwater to the oceans as does the Greenland Ice Sheet — about 40 to 70 gigatons per year, 66,78,63,57,64,58 comparable to 10 % of the annual discharge of the Mississippi River.79 Glaciers continue to respond to climate warming for years to decades after warming ceases, so ice loss is expected to continue, even if air temperatures were to remain at current lev
Loss of glacial volume in Alaska and neighboring British Columbia, Canada, currently contributes 20 % to 30 % as much surplus freshwater to the oceans as does the Greenland
Ice Sheet — about 40 to 70 gigatons per year, 66,78,63,57,64,58 comparable to 10 % of the annual discharge of the Mississippi River.79 Glaciers continue to respond to climate warming for years to decades after warming ceases, so ice loss is expected to continue, even if air temperatures were to remain at current leve
Ice Sheet — about 40 to 70 gigatons per year, 66,78,63,57,64,58 comparable to 10 % of the annual discharge of the Mississippi River.79 Glaciers
continue to respond to climate warming for years to decades after warming ceases, so
ice loss is expected to continue, even if air temperatures were to remain at current leve
ice loss is expected to continue, even if air temperatures were to remain at current lev
loss is expected to
continue, even if air temperatures were to remain at current levels.
Closed contours over the Pacific Arctic support a
continued low sea level pressure in that region, similar to Figure 9, which is not supportive of rapid sea
ice loss.
The two scientists report in Nature Climate Change that if emissions of greenhouse gases
continue to rise as they are doing now, the thaw of the permafrost and the
loss of the
ice caps could release 1,700 billion metric tons of carbon now locked in as frozen organic matter.
However, the rate of
ice loss accelerated in July, and faster than normal
loss rates
continued through August, a transition month when
ice losses typically begins to slow.