For short periods, it peaked at
ice loss rates of over 3000 cubic kilometres per year.»
For short periods, it peaked at
ice loss rates of over 3000 cubic kilometres per year.»
Not exact matches
Even worse, there are signs that the
rate of ice loss is increasing.
«
Loss of ice shelves surrounding the Antarctic continent could have a major effect on the
rate of ice flow off the continent,» Scambos notes.
Based on what we know, we can expect the rapid
ice loss to continue for a long time yet, especially if ocean - driven melting
of the
ice shelf in front
of Pine Island Glacier continues at current
rates,»
They then used the satellite record
of Arctic sea
ice extent to calculate the
rates of sea
ice loss and then projected those
rates into the future, to estimate how much more the sea
ice cover may shrink in approximately three polar bear generations, or 35 years.
By lubricating the bedrock, it will speed the flow
of the overlying
ice, perhaps increasing the
rate of ice - mass
loss in West Antarctica.
The
rates and geographic extent
of ice loss are «very surprising,» says radar altimetry expert Curt Davis
of the University
of Missouri, Kansas City.
Glaciologists worldwide use these and other maps in modeling the
rate of ice loss in Greenland and projecting future
losses.
In 2008 a satellite study based on
rates of snowfall and
ice movement estimated a
loss of 210 cubic kilometers
of ice per year — a 59 percent increase in the past decade.
«Until the
rate and likely duration
of sea
ice losses as well as the ensuing ecosystem responses are better understood, closing the U.S. Arctic to commercial fishing is a prudent measure.»
However, the
rate of ice loss picked up during July, when the sun is still strong.
Many researchers think this is unrealistic and that the
rate of ice loss will accelerate, which means that sea level could rise much faster than predicted.
The IPCC's latest prediction for sea level rise — 0.2 to 0.6 metres by 2100 — takes this
ice loss into account but it is based on the assumption that the
rate of ice loss will remain constant.
The first comprehensive survey
of all Antarctic
ice shelves discovered that basal melt, or
ice dissolving from underneath, accounted for 55 percent
of shelf
loss from 2003 to 2008 — a
rate much higher than previously thought.
Complementary analyses
of the surface mass balance
of Greenland (Tedesco et al, 2011) also show that 2010 was a record year for melt area extent... Extrapolating these melt
rates forward to 2050, «the cumulative
loss could raise sea level by 15 cm by 2050 ″ for a total
of 32 cm (adding in 8 cm from glacial
ice caps and 9 cm from thermal expansion)- a number very close to the best estimate
of Vermeer & Rahmstorf (2009), derived by linking the observed
rate of sea level rise to the observed warming.
Lead author Dr Malcolm McMillan from the University
of Leeds said: «We find that
ice losses continue to be most pronounced along the fast - flowing
ice streams
of the Amundsen Sea sector, with thinning
rates of between 4 and 8 metres per year near to the grounding lines
of the Pine Island, Thwaites and Smith Glaciers.»
New research suggests that as early as 2090,
rates of ice loss at the site could exceed gains from new snowfall.
But that could soon change, Rignot said, because the
rate at which
ice sheets are losing mass is increasing three times faster than the
rate of ice loss from mountain glaciers and
ice caps.
Khazendar and his team, analyzing their direct radar measurements, found stunning
rates of ice loss from the glaciers» undersides on the ocean sides
of their grounding lines.
The IceCon project [8] is investigating Antarctic
ice mass balance - the
rate of loss of ice from the continent.
[7] The IceCon project aims to gain a better understanding
of the
rate of the
loss of ice — now and in the past - from the Antarctic
ice sheet in the Dronning Maud Land area, and includes six partners: Université Libre de Bruxelles, Royal Observatory
of Belgium, University
of Luxembourg, Norwegian Polar Institute, and Aberystwyth University.
The team also compared the
ice loss up until the mid-1980s to that observed by satellites over roughly the last decade and found that today the
rate of ice loss is twice the 20th century average, mostly because
of increased water runoff from the
ice sheet's surface.
Since 1979, winter sea
ice extent has decreased 3.2 percent per decade (the
loss is much more pronounced in summer at a
rate of 13.4 percent per decade).
Other researchers look at raised beaches [32] and palaeo lakes to record previous
rates of isostatic uplift and
rates of sea level rise [33, 34]; this can help constrain previous
ice volumes and
rates of ice loss.
The
rate of release from the tundra alone is predicted to reach 1.5 billion tons
of carbon per annum before 2030, contributing to accelerated climate change, perhaps resulting in sustained decadal doubling
of ice loss causing collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet (Hansen et al, 201
ice loss causing collapse
of the Greenland
Ice Sheet (Hansen et al, 201
Ice Sheet (Hansen et al, 2011).
Joughin et al. (2010) applied a numerical
ice sheet model to predicting the future
of PIG, their model suggested ongoing
loss of ice mass from PIG, with a maximum
rate of global sea level rise
of 2.7 cm per century.
This kind
of significant change could increase the
rate of warming already in progress, affect further sea
ice loss in the Arctic and alter shipping access to the Arctic Ocean.
Rates of sea - level rise calculated from tide gauge data tend to exceed bottom - up estimates derived from summing
loss of ice mass, thermal expansion and changes in land storage.
IceCon aims to gain a better understanding
of the
rate of the
loss of ice — now and in the past - from the Antarctic
ice sheet in the Dronning...
And since you have missed this acceleration you have assumed that the
rate will remain at 3.3 mm / year for the rest
of this century, despite ongoing observations
of increases in
ice mass
loss in Greenland and parts
of Antarctica.
For three particular mismatches — sea
ice loss rates being much too low in CMIP3, tropical MSU - TMT rising too fast in CMIP5, or the ensemble mean global mean temperatures diverging from HadCRUT4 — it is likely that there are multiple sources
of these mismatches across all three categories described above.
Our modelled values are consistent with current
rates of Antarctic
ice loss and sea - level rise, and imply that accelerated mass
loss from marine - based portions
of Antarctic
ice sheets may ensue when an increase in global mean air temperature
of only 1.4 - 2.0 deg.
Our experiments show a clear threshold in the relationship between the
rate of sea - level rise, and the
rate of (sea - level contributing)
ice - sheet mass
loss.
Non-linear
rates of Antarctic
ice loss under high
rates of sea - level rise Golledge, Nick; Arnold, Richard; Levy, Richard; Naish, Tim
Now, this is why you are not thinking — let's assume that at any particular level
of regional temperature, we can expect a certain
loss rate — this is reasonable because, as you say, there is a lot
of ice in Greenland.
From recent instrumental observations alone we are therefore unable to predict whether mass
loss from these
ice sheets will vary linearly with changes in the
rate of sea - level rise, or if a non-linear response is more likely.
Nevertheless, some caution is in order in interpreting this to mean that current
rates of rapid
ice loss from West Antarctica represent a long term trend.
The sea
ice loss rate seems to be very sensitive to model resolution and has improved in CMIP5 — implicating aspects
of the model structure as the main source
of the problem.
If you were to take the current
rate of ice loss as a starting point, and assume a constant
rate of acceleration, then by the end
of the century, the annual
loss rate would need to reach nearly 6,200 km ³ / yr, or nearly 23 times the current
rate, to result in a cumulative 10 %
loss.
One
of the things about
ice melting (and this goes for dynamic
ice sheet effects as well) is that melt /
loss rates increase more than linearly with temperature.
Under all RCP scenarios the
rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed during 1971 — 2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased
loss of mass from glaciers and
ice sheets.
For Greenland to lose 285,000 km ³
of ice in 89 years, the AVERAGE
rate of loss would have to be more than 3,200 km ³ / yr, or nearly 12 times faster than the current
loss rate (273 km ³ / yr).
Currently they are reporting on record
ice losses in August, when the
rate of decline typically decreases (but this year it kept right on melting as if it was July).
The authors
of the study — Ricarda Winkelmann and Anders Levermann from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Ken Caldeira
of the Carnegie Institution for Science and Andy Ridgwell
of the University
of Bristol — find that the
loss of the entire Antarctic
ice sheet would take millenniums, but up to 100 feet
of sea level rise could result within 1,000 years, with the
rate of the rise beginning to increase a century or two from now.
8) Accelerated mass
loss in Greenland and / or Antarctica, perhaps with another huge
ice shelf breaking off, but in any case coupled with another measurable rise in the
rate of sea level rise, 9) The Fifth Assessment Report (2012 - 2013) really spelling out what we face with no punches pulled.
Chris, in my amateurish way, I have wondered whether there may be a bit
of a slowdown in the
rate of ice loss as the oldest
ice melts.
IIRC, the limit on mass
loss was attributed to the narrowness
of passes in the mountains, but if the
ice loss is behind the mountains as the ocean reaches beyond them, and mixes salt into the system with tides, then only the flushing
of salt and icebergs via meltwater would limit the
rate of melt in the (brand new) Greenland Sea.
However, although the Arctic is still not as warm as it was during the Eemian interglacial 125,000 years ago [e.g., Andersen et al., 2004], the present
rate of sea
ice loss will likely push the system out
of this natural envelope within a century.
The contribution from glaciers and
ice caps (not including Greenland and Antarctica), on the other hand, is computed from a simple empirical formula linking global mean temperature to mass
loss (equivalent to a
rate of sea level rise), based on observed data from 1963 to 2003.