Velicogna, I. Increasing rates of
ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets revealed by GRACE.
«Increasing rates of
ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets revealed by GRACE.»
We hypothesize that
ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response.
I know that there is now widespread disquiet about the potential for rapid
ice mass loss from the WAIS and the GIS (century scale).
Velicogna (2014) Regional acceleration in
ice mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica using GRACE time - variable gravity data.
Atmospheric warming does not appear to contribute to
ice mass loss from either the EAIS or WAIS, other than the «Peninsula».
That seems questionable, as is the suggestion that some 50 % of future SLR could come from
ice mass loss from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.
SLR by 2100 is more likely to come from
ice mass loss from West Antarctica (WAIS) where warm ocean currents are already melting ice at glacier mouths and attacking areas of the WAIS resting on the seabed.
Thanks to GRACE satellite monitoring, there is a good gravity record of
ice mass loss from Greenland from the period 2002 - present.
Rignot et al., Recent Antarctic
ice mass loss from radar interferometry and regional climate modelling, Nature Geoscience 1, 106 — 110 (2008)
The IPCC projects that
ice mass loss from melting of the Greenland ice sheet will continue to outpace accumulation of snowfall.
Not exact matches
Within a few years, the main outlet glacier draining the region — Zachariae Isstrom — retreated about 20 kilometers, and regional
ice mass loss jumped
from zero to roughly 10 metric gigatons a year.
The drought that is devastating California and much of the West has dried the region so much that 240 gigatons worth of surface and groundwater have been lost, roughly the equivalent to a 3.9 - inch layer of water over the entire West, or the annual
loss of
mass from the Greenland
Ice Sheet, according to the study.
Complementary analyses of the surface
mass balance of Greenland (Tedesco et al, 2011) also show that 2010 was a record year for melt area extent... Extrapolating these melt rates forward to 2050, «the cumulative
loss could raise sea level by 15 cm by 2050 ″ for a total of 32 cm (adding in 8 cm
from glacial
ice caps and 9 cm
from thermal expansion)- a number very close to the best estimate of Vermeer & Rahmstorf (2009), derived by linking the observed rate of sea level rise to the observed warming.
«The fact that the
mass loss of the Greenland
Ice Sheet has generally increased over the last decades is well known,» Khan said, «but the increasing contribution from the northeastern part of the ice sheet is new and very surprising.&raq
Ice Sheet has generally increased over the last decades is well known,» Khan said, «but the increasing contribution
from the northeastern part of the
ice sheet is new and very surprising.&raq
ice sheet is new and very surprising.»
But that could soon change, Rignot said, because the rate at which
ice sheets are losing
mass is increasing three times faster than the rate of
ice loss from mountain glaciers and
ice caps.
Subtracting one
from the other produced a «
mass - balance» picture of net
ice loss or growth for each
ice sheet.
The IceCon project [8] is investigating Antarctic
ice mass balance - the rate of
loss of
ice from the continent.
A large contribution
from the Greenland
Ice Sheet is unlikely, as it is mostly grounded above sea level and so mass loss from calving ice bergs is limit
Ice Sheet is unlikely, as it is mostly grounded above sea level and so
mass loss from calving
ice bergs is limit
ice bergs is limited.
The reconstructed curve includes isolated rapid events of several decimetres within a few centuries, one of which is most likely related to
loss from the Antarctic
ice sheet
mass around 5000 years before present.
The findings, published Monday in Nature Geoscience, reveal that the 1997 - 98 El Niño led to a substantial
loss of
mass from the bottom of the
ice shelves in West Antarctica's Amundsen sea sector, even as the shelves appeared to grow about ten inches taller
from additional snowfall.
Joughin et al. (2010) applied a numerical
ice sheet model to predicting the future of PIG, their model suggested ongoing
loss of
ice mass from PIG, with a maximum rate of global sea level rise of 2.7 cm per century.
Rates of sea - level rise calculated
from tide gauge data tend to exceed bottom - up estimates derived
from summing
loss of
ice mass, thermal expansion and changes in land storage.
In the figure right,
from Rignot et al. 2008, you can see that
mass losses from Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier dominate Antarctic
Ice Sheet ice loss
Ice Sheet
ice loss
ice losses.
Indeed, previously scientists thought that the
loss of
ice mass from Greenland and Antarctica alone was driving a polar shift.
Our modelled values are consistent with current rates of Antarctic
ice loss and sea - level rise, and imply that accelerated
mass loss from marine - based portions of Antarctic
ice sheets may ensue when an increase in global mean air temperature of only 1.4 - 2.0 deg.
Most of the
mass -
loss is apparently
from ice - dynamics, which was apparently not considered at least in the first study you linked to.
From recent instrumental observations alone we are therefore unable to predict whether mass loss from these ice sheets will vary linearly with changes in the rate of sea - level rise, or if a non-linear response is more lik
From recent instrumental observations alone we are therefore unable to predict whether
mass loss from these ice sheets will vary linearly with changes in the rate of sea - level rise, or if a non-linear response is more lik
from these
ice sheets will vary linearly with changes in the rate of sea - level rise, or if a non-linear response is more likely.
Under all RCP scenarios the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed during 1971 — 2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased
loss of
mass from glaciers and
ice sheets.
However, the idea is simple, and I've talked about this much in many presentations this winter: Take the amount of
ice you need to get rid of
from Greenland to raise sea level 2 m in the next century, reduce it by your best estimate of the amount that would be removed by surface
mass balance
losses, and try to push the rest out of the aggregate cross-sectional area of Greenland's marine - based outlet glaciers.
The lower trend found by our study is consistent with the median projected sums of thermal expansion and glacier
mass loss, implying that no net contribution
from polar
ice sheets is needed over 1901 - 1990.
al) suggest radiative
loss to space, but they also include references relating to warming bottom water, deepening tropical gyre warm bowls, and increased
mass loss from the Antarctic and Geenland
ice sheets.
The contribution
from glaciers and
ice caps (not including Greenland and Antarctica), on the other hand, is computed
from a simple empirical formula linking global mean temperature to
mass loss (equivalent to a rate of sea level rise), based on observed data
from 1963 to 2003.
Thus, whatever the contribution of
mass loss from the Greenland
ice sheet to the huge (4 - 8 m) rise in sea level of the Eemian, it occurred under very strong temperature forcing.
The acceleration increased the
mass loss from 5 km3
ice / year in 1996 (12) to 36 km
ice / year in 2005 (Table 1), which is 6 % of Greenland's total accumulation.
A rise in global mean sea level of between 0.09 and 0.88 metres by 2100 has been projected, mainly due to the thermal expansion of sea water and
loss of
mass from ice caps and glaciers».
The
ice mass loss observed in this research was a change
from the trend of losing 113 ± 17 gigatons per year during the 1990s, but was smaller than some other recent estimates (Luthcke et al. 2006).
We suggest that
mass loss from disintegrating
ice sheets probably can be approximated better by exponential
mass loss than by linear
mass loss.
Most of the
mass loss came
from the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet (Velicogna and Wahr 2006b).
Yet the rate of
ice loss from these two polar realms, as identified by satellite measurements of the change in gravity of the
ice masses, has more than doubled over the last decade.
Ice mass loss is occuring at an accelerated rate in Greenland, Antarctica and globally
from inland glaciers.
These authors use an
ice sheet model within a Bayesian statistical framework — in which critical processes are guided by expert synthesis — to simulate the
mass loss from the entire Antarctic
ice sheet to 2200.
Even if it is 1.6, that is enough to seriously reduce the size of the Greenland
Ice Sheet, and the rate of
mass loss from that is still doubling every 10 years.
Insights
from this study suggests that large sectors of contemporary
ice sheets overlying geothermally active regions, such as Siple Coast, Antarctica, and NE Greenland, have the potential to experience rapid phases of
mass loss and deglaciation once initial retreat is initiated.
Has the discussion of sea level rise as a non linear response to forcings and acceleration of
mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic
ice caps.
Annual net balance on eight North Cascades glaciers during the 1984 - 1994 period has been determined by measurement, of total
mass loss from firn and
ice melt and, of residual snow depth at the end of the summer season.
Should thank Fan for bringing up
ice -
mass loss «inferred»
from gravimetric interferometry.
GRACE interferometry is sufficiently sensitive that many skeptics (angech for example) believes that
ice -
mass loss inferred
from gravimetric interferometry can't be real!
The rate of
ice mass loss in the Russian Arctic has nearly doubled over the last decade when compared to records
from the previous 60 years, a new study shows.
«It is very likely that the rate of global mean sea level rise during the 21st century will exceed the rate observed during 1971 — 2010 for all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios due to increases in ocean warming and
loss of
mass from glaciers and
ice sheets.