The rate of
ice mass loss in the Russian Arctic has nearly doubled over the last decade when compared to records from the previous 60 years, a new study shows.
Between April 2002 and April 2006, GRACE data uncovered
ice mass loss in Greenland of 248 ± 36 cubic kilometers per year, an amount equivalent to a global sea rise of 0.5 ± 0.1 millimeters per year.
The maps suggests growth of parts of coastal East Antarctica, little change in the interior and
ice mass loss in West Antarctica (basins 18 - 27 and 1) focused on the Amundsen Sea Coast region (basins 20 - 23).
Although that's really all that needs be said, I should add that jetfuel is trying to compare cumulative year - over-year land
ice mass loss in Antarctica with (cyclical) seasonal river / lake ice volume gain in Canada - and ignoring the inevitable melt - away of the latter.
Ice mass loss in Greenland 2003 - 2009 as measured by GRACE amounts to 223 + / - 29 Gt / yr.
And since you have missed this acceleration you have assumed that the rate will remain at 3.3 mm / year for the rest of this century, despite ongoing observations of increases in
ice mass loss in Greenland and parts of Antarctica.
Indeed, some, such as Arctic sea ice loss or
ice mass losses in Greenland's glaciers, have been proceeding faster than expected.
Not exact matches
As glaciologist Richard Alley of Pennsylvania State University notes: «The
ice sheet is losing
mass, this
loss has increased over time, [and] it is not the dominant term
in sea - level rise — but it matters.»
By lubricating the bedrock, it will speed the flow of the overlying
ice, perhaps increasing the rate of
ice -
mass loss in West Antarctica.
«By refining the spatial pattern of
mass loss in the world's second largest — and most unstable —
ice sheet, and learning how that pattern has evolved, we are steadily increasing our understanding of
ice loss processes, which will lead to better - informed projections of sea level rise.»
In other words, the
losses of
mass of the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet will intensify — just like the models predict.»
Complementary analyses of the surface
mass balance of Greenland (Tedesco et al, 2011) also show that 2010 was a record year for melt area extent... Extrapolating these melt rates forward to 2050, «the cumulative
loss could raise sea level by 15 cm by 2050 ″ for a total of 32 cm (adding
in 8 cm from glacial
ice caps and 9 cm from thermal expansion)- a number very close to the best estimate of Vermeer & Rahmstorf (2009), derived by linking the observed rate of sea level rise to the observed warming.
Despite being trumpeted
in certain circles as meaning that there's really nothing to worry about regarding the Greenland
ice sheet, the authors made a point of noting (although not
in this press release) that an additional source of
mass loss needs to be identified
in order to reconcile their results with the GRACE data (which do not show a reduction
in mass loss for the same period).
First, the
loss of
mass in the Antarctic
ice sheet is actually somewhat unexpected.
The relevant papers are [Velicogna and Wahr 2006 Measurements of time - variable gravity show
mass loss in Antarctica Science 311, 1754 - 1756 and Rignot and Thomas «
Mass balance of polar
ice sheets» Science 297, 1502 - 1506]
It is quite possible that we are well past half - way — maybe at 75 %
in terms of
loss of arctic sea
ice mass.
His comments are based on the paper «Limits
in detecting acceleration of
ice sheet
mass loss due to climate variability», B. Wouters, J. L. Bamber, M. R. van den Broeke, J. T. M. Lenaerts and I. Sasgen, Nature Geoscience 6, 613 — 616 (2013) doi: 10.1038 / ngeo1874 Find the abstract and illustrations for that paper here.
The findings, published Monday
in Nature Geoscience, reveal that the 1997 - 98 El Niño led to a substantial
loss of
mass from the bottom of the
ice shelves
in West Antarctica's Amundsen sea sector, even as the shelves appeared to grow about ten inches taller from additional snowfall.
Rates of sea - level rise calculated from tide gauge data tend to exceed bottom - up estimates derived from summing
loss of
ice mass, thermal expansion and changes
in land storage.
In the figure right, from Rignot et al. 2008, you can see that
mass losses from Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier dominate Antarctic
Ice Sheet ice loss
Ice Sheet
ice loss
ice losses.
Our modelled values are consistent with current rates of Antarctic
ice loss and sea - level rise, and imply that accelerated
mass loss from marine - based portions of Antarctic
ice sheets may ensue when an increase
in global mean air temperature of only 1.4 - 2.0 deg.
Most of the
mass -
loss is apparently from
ice - dynamics, which was apparently not considered at least
in the first study you linked to.
Our experiments show a clear threshold
in the relationship between the rate of sea - level rise, and the rate of (sea - level contributing)
ice - sheet
mass loss.
From recent instrumental observations alone we are therefore unable to predict whether
mass loss from these
ice sheets will vary linearly with changes
in the rate of sea - level rise, or if a non-linear response is more likely.
However, the idea is simple, and I've talked about this much
in many presentations this winter: Take the amount of
ice you need to get rid of from Greenland to raise sea level 2 m
in the next century, reduce it by your best estimate of the amount that would be removed by surface
mass balance
losses, and try to push the rest out of the aggregate cross-sectional area of Greenland's marine - based outlet glaciers.
8) Accelerated
mass loss in Greenland and / or Antarctica, perhaps with another huge
ice shelf breaking off, but
in any case coupled with another measurable rise
in the rate of sea level rise, 9) The Fifth Assessment Report (2012 - 2013) really spelling out what we face with no punches pulled.
IIRC, the limit on
mass loss was attributed to the narrowness of passes
in the mountains, but if the
ice loss is behind the mountains as the ocean reaches beyond them, and mixes salt into the system with tides, then only the flushing of salt and icebergs via meltwater would limit the rate of melt
in the (brand new) Greenland Sea.
The relevant papers are [Velicogna and Wahr 2006 Measurements of time - variable gravity show
mass loss in Antarctica Science 311, 1754 - 1756 and Rignot and Thomas «
Mass balance of polar
ice sheets» Science 297, 1502 - 1506]
Over the time period of our survey, the
ice sheet as a whole was certainly losing
mass, and the
mass loss increased by 75 %
in 10 years.
First, the
loss of
mass in the Antarctic
ice sheet is actually somewhat unexpected.
This is despite using observed
ice sheet
mass loss (0.19 mm / year)
in the «modelled» number
in this comparison, otherwise the discrepancy would be even larger — the
ice sheet models predict that the
ice sheets gain
mass due to global warming.
The Greenland
ice sheet gains
mass via snowfall and
losses mass via the production of icebergs and by melt of
ice in the
ice marginal zone.
Thus, whatever the contribution of
mass loss from the Greenland
ice sheet to the huge (4 - 8 m) rise
in sea level of the Eemian, it occurred under very strong temperature forcing.
Given the level of denialism
in the face of glacial
mass loss, plummeting Arctic summer
ice cover, progressive collapse of
ice shelves that have been stable for 6000 to 10000 years, northward, upward, and seasonally earlier movements of ecosystems and other phenological changes, increasing Greenland
ice melt, and all the other direct observations of global warming, I think denialists will go to their graves believing it can't be happening.
It is noted that the
mass loss of Antarctica is mostly or entirely due to recent changes
in ice flow.
That typically occurs
in ice - sheet model simulations that involve more than about 2 m of sea - level - equivalent
mass loss.
The acceleration increased the
mass loss from 5 km3
ice / year
in 1996 (12) to 36 km
ice / year
in 2005 (Table 1), which is 6 % of Greenland's total accumulation.
In 1996, the rate of
ice mass loss had increased to 97 gigatonnes per year.
The findings reinforce suggestions that strong positive
ice — temperature feedbacks have emerged
in the Arctic15, increasing the chances of further rapid warming and sea
ice loss, and will probably affect polar ecosystems,
ice - sheet
mass balance and human activities
in the Arctic...» *** This is the heart of polar amplification and has very little to do with your stated defintion of amplifying the effects of warming going on at lower latitudes.
It has come to the point that if we continue losing
mass in those areas, the
loss can generate a self - reinforcing feedback whereby we will be losing more and more
ice, ultimately raising sea levels by tens of feet.»
A rise
in global mean sea level of between 0.09 and 0.88 metres by 2100 has been projected, mainly due to the thermal expansion of sea water and
loss of
mass from
ice caps and glaciers».
Gravity measurements of the
ice -
mass loss in Greenland and Antarctica are complicated by glacial isostatic adjustment.
The
ice mass loss observed
in this research was a change from the trend of losing 113 ± 17 gigatons per year during the 1990s, but was smaller than some other recent estimates (Luthcke et al. 2006).
Yet the rate of
ice loss from these two polar realms, as identified by satellite measurements of the change
in gravity of the
ice masses, has more than doubled over the last decade.
Ice mass loss is occuring at an accelerated rate
in Greenland, Antarctica and globally from inland glaciers.
«We also are seeing this
ice mass loss trend
in Antarctica, a sign that warming temperatures really are having an effect on
ice in Earth's cold regions.»
CryoSat - 2 observations taken between November 2010 and September 2013 indicate annual
ice sheet
mass losses of 134 ± 27 gigatons
in West Antarctica, 3 ± 36 gigatons
in East Antarctica, and 23 ± 18 gigatons on the Antarctic Peninsula.
The main memory is through the warming of the oceans, manifested
in part through the ongoing rise
in sea level, and the
loss of Arctic sea
ice and glacier
mass.
These authors use an
ice sheet model within a Bayesian statistical framework —
in which critical processes are guided by expert synthesis — to simulate the
mass loss from the entire Antarctic
ice sheet to 2200.
Its
ice loss in 2003 was only 0.03 % of its total
mass — well within long - term variability throughout its history.