Not exact matches
The five lowest summer sea
ice minimums have occurred
over the past five years, researchers noted.
The
minimum Arctic sea
ice has declined by a little
over half since its maximum extent of the past three decades.
For example, austral summer
minimum ice extents have varied by as much as 25 %
over the 1979 to 2014 modern satellite record.
Artic sea
ice minimum has been retreating
over the past thirty years (shown in yellow).
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The Maunder
Minimum falls within the climatically cooler period of the «Little
Ice Age», during which temperatures were particularly low
over continents in the Northern hemisphere (especially in winter).
Global mean temperature since the last
ice age has oscillated quasi-periodically between about + / - 1 % of its mean;
over that time, the mean has slightly declined, as have the maxima and
minima of the excursions.
As a result, the sea
ice volume at its annual
minimum has declined 75 %
over the past three decades.
(1) One is the
ice sheet and glacier mechanical collapse, which doesn't require a whole lot more warming, but will happen with some set
minimum amount of warming
over some time period; and (2) the other is global warming that keeps increasing beyond the level needed to cause # 1, which among other things will perhaps lead to positive carbon feedbacks (e.g., from melting permafrost and hydrates).
The graph below (high - resolution copy) shows the range of the forecasts for early September, the point when the sea
ice typically reaches its
minimum extent, compared to recent years and the average
over the period of precise satellite measurement.
The range of ocean remaining frozen
over the northern polar region reached its
minimum extent for 2009 on September 12, when it covered 1.97 million square miles (5.1 million square km), and now appears to be growing again as the Arctic starts its annual cool - down, the National Snow and
Ice Data Center reported.
And remember, the satellite data are one small part of a vast amount of data that overwhelmingly show our planet is warming up: retreating glaciers, huge amounts of
ice melting at both poles, the «death spiral» of arctic
ice every year at the summer
minimum over time, earlier annual starts of warm weather and later starts of cold weather, warming oceans, rising sea levels, ocean acidification, more extreme weather, changing weather patterns overall, earlier snow melts, and lower snow cover in the spring...
Arctic sea
ice extent (SIE) has decreased
over recent decades, with record - setting
minimum events in 2007 and again in 2012.
«A peer - reviewed paper [Krivova et al.] published in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds that reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) show a significant increase since the Maunder
minimum in the 1600's during the Little
Ice Age and shows further increases
over the 19th and 20th centuries... Use of the Stefan - Boltzmann equation indicates that a 1.25 W / m2 increase in solar activity could account for an approximate.44 C global temperature increase... A significant new finding is that portions of the more energetic ultraviolet region of the solar spectrum increased by almost 50 %
over the 400 years since the Maunder
minimum... This is highly significant because the UV portion of the solar spectrum is the most important for heating of the oceans due to the greatest penetration beyond the surface and highest energy levels.
published in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds that reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) show a significant increase since the Maunder
minimum in the 1600's during the Little
Ice Age and shows further increases
over the 19th and 20th centuries... Use of the Stefan - Boltzmann equation indicates that a 1.25 W / m2 increase in solar activity could account for an approximate.44 C global temperature increase... A significant new finding is that portions of the more energetic ultraviolet region of the solar spectrum increased by almost 50 %
over the 400 years since the Maunder
minimum... This is highly significant because the UV portion of the solar spectrum is the most important for heating of the oceans due to the greatest penetration beyond the surface and highest energy levels.
Depending on how the weather plays out
over the next few weeks, that
minimum is likely to fall somewhere between second and fifth place, they estimate — still a remarkably low level that shows how precipitously sea
ice has declined in recent decades.
In retrospect, our overall outlook of setting a new record
minimum based on the vast amount of FY
ice should have been tempered by the fact that the FY
ice over the pole should be thicker since it was the first
ice to grow last fall and the north pole is also colder than the Eurasian and Alaskan coasts, and during summer this
ice is subject to less incident sunlight.
They collectively conclude that recent September sea
ice minima are more related to longer term shifts in thermal forcing and
ice melt and thus persistence, and in most years, month - to - month meteorological variability
over the summer months tends to cancel out extremes in atmospheric forcing.
Actually Fielding's use of that graph is quite informative of how denialist arguments are framed — the selected bit of a selected graph (and don't mention the fastest warming region on the planet being left out of that data set), or the complete passing
over of short term variability vs longer term trends, or the other measures and indicators of climate change from ocean heat content and sea levels to changes in
ice sheets and
minimum sea
ice levels, or the passing
over of issues like lag time between emissions and effects on temperatures... etc..
Both 2007 and 2008 qualify as major outliers compared to previous summer
minimum sea
ice extents
over the last three decades.
Satellite data reveal how the new record low Arctic sea
ice extent, from Sept. 16, 2012, compares to the average
minimum extent
over the past 30 years (in yellow).
The very small change in ocean water temperatures since sea
ice measurements began in 1979 does not match with gains (or losses) in any season, not from Sept (Arctic sea
ice minimum)
over through winter to March - April sea
ice maximums.
The most recent
ice maximum occurred 20,000 years ago, but few are aware that similar maxima and minima occurred over a 3 million year period called the Pleistocene Ice A
ice maximum occurred 20,000 years ago, but few are aware that similar maxima and
minima occurred
over a 3 million year period called the Pleistocene
Ice A
Ice Age.
Although there is general consensus in the September Outlook for either persistent conditions or a slight increase
over the 2008 sea
ice extent, Outlook contributions which provide probabilistic assessments indicate about a 20 % chance of reaching a new September sea
ice minimum in 2009.
Although the majority of the responses indicate either persistent conditions or a slight increase
over the 2008 sea
ice extent, there appears to be about a 20 % chance of reaching a new
minimum in 2009.
Behavior of the sea
ice over the past winter and the spring and the large positive temperature anomalies in the Arctic (as high as 20 degrees C
over large regions in the past winter) suggest that an extent near that of the 2012
minimum may occur again if there is large export of sea
ice out to the Atlantic Ocean via the Fram Strait.
What we know of the connection between solar activity and radiation, coupled with high abundances of isotopes in tree - rings and
ice - cores (Fig. 2d), supports the likely case that during the Maunder
Minimum solar activity remained for
over half a century at very low levels.
NASA satellites have seen the
minimum summertime sea
ice coverage decline by 13 percent
over the last three decades, along with a decline in sea
ice thickness.
Over the last millennium the agreement between the tree - ring data and volcano /
ice - core data is high: years of ring - width
minima can be matched with known volcanic eruptions or
ice - core volcanic signals in 86 % of cases.
Since the graph isn't fine grained enough to track runs year - to - year, it will be interesting to see if we do experience a resurgence in sea
ice growth
over the next couple of years or if melt just goes straight to the expected
minimum of around 1m km2.
The annual mean Arctic sea
ice extent decreased
over the period 1979 to 2012 with a rate that was very likely in the range 3.5 to 4.1 % per decade (range of 0.45 to 0.51 million km2 per decade), and very likely in the range 9.4 to 13.6 % per decade (range of 0.73 to 1.07 million km2 per decade) for the summer sea
ice minimum (perennial sea
ice).
The models heavily relied upon by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had not projected this multidecadal stasis in «global warming»; nor (until trained ex post facto) the fall in TS from 1940 - 1975; nor 50 years» cooling in Antarctica (Doran et al., 2002) and the Arctic (Soon, 2005); nor the absence of ocean warming since 2003 (Lyman et al., 2006; Gouretski & Koltermann, 2007); nor the onset, duration, or intensity of the Madden - Julian intraseasonal oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings
over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little
Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar
minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20th century.
Yes, after an autumn in which the sea
ice extent curve has tracked pretty closely with 2007 — which ended up with a record - low
minimum — we have had a sharp increase in extent
over the last few weeks.
Ice extent in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian Seas remain high compared to the 2007 record minimum, however, the overall ice extent could still rival the 2007 record minimum particularly if winds over the next few weeks push the ice northwa
Ice extent in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian Seas remain high compared to the 2007 record
minimum, however, the overall
ice extent could still rival the 2007 record minimum particularly if winds over the next few weeks push the ice northwa
ice extent could still rival the 2007 record
minimum particularly if winds
over the next few weeks push the
ice northwa
ice northward.