For testing purposes - ie when the sea -
ice modelling scientists are testing changes to their parametrisations - then you can't do runs like that.
Not exact matches
Murali Haran, a professor in the department of statistics at Penn State University; Won Chang, an assistant professor in the department of mathematical sciences at the University of Cincinnati; Klaus Keller, a professor in the department of geosciences and director of sustainable climate risk management at Penn State University; Rob Nicholas, a research associate at Earth and Environmental Systems Institute at Penn State University; and David Pollard, a senior
scientist at Earth and Environmental Systems Institute at Penn State University detail how parameters and initial values drive an
ice sheet
model, whose output describes the behavior of the
ice sheet through time.
The thermodynamic
model developed by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland research
scientists shows that under certain conditions
ice warms and melts when an item of material slides across its surface.
Ice friction was
modelled by VTT's Principal
Scientist Lasse Makkonen and Research
Scientist Maria Tikanmäki.
Climate
models may understate risks Previously, many
scientists had believed that northeast Greenland was too cold to be a significant contributor to
ice loss, said Khan.
Scientists have suggested that
ice sheets covering the ocean, or a hydrogen - sulfide haze, might have protected nascent life, but attempts to
model these conditions have given ambiguous results.
Scientists have already discovered enormous lakes deep under the
ice, a result not predicted in any
model.
Materials
scientists hope their computer
model results will spark further research into the effects of carbon dioxide on fracturing in glaciers and
ice sheets
The
scientists also ran a computer
model to simulate the future of Greenland's surface temperature, grain size, exposed
ice area and albedo.
Coastal sea
ice formation takes place on relatively small scales, however, and is not captured well in global climate
models, according to
scientists at the University of California, Santa Cruz, who conducted the study.
The more data
scientists can gather about Antarctic sea
ice, the more they can unpick why climate
models struggle to accurately predict its extent.
The new
model is the first to document and quantify this new feedback — one that is not accounted for in climate
models, says Jason Box, an
ice scientist at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland in Copenhagen, who has documented rising impurities at a local scale during field campaigns.
Isaac Held, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climate
scientist, said he agreed with the researchers about the «the importance of getting the
ice - liquid ratio in mixed - phase clouds right,» but he doesn't agree that global climate
models generally underestimate climate sensitivity.
But the
models also suggest that the scheme could go too far: Adding excess sulfur could increase
ice in Antarctica, «overcompensating» for warming, says Rasch, which could affect ecosystems and the global ocean - atmosphere system in a myriad of ways that
scientists haven't studied.
Many older
models of Greenland assumed that its massive
ice sheet sat on bedrock that was relatively flat, even though
scientists did not know the full thickness of the
ice.
In order to predict future changes in climate,
scientists verify and refine their
models against paleoclimate data from the
ice cores Taylor and others pull up.
The data that Old Weather volunteer citizen
scientists meticulously transcribe from the logbooks are used to drive climate and sea
ice models to help understand changes and improve predictions.
The consequences of global sea level rise could be even scarier than the worst - case scenarios predicted by the dominant climate
models, which don't fully account for the fast breakup of
ice sheets and glaciers, NASA
scientists said today (Aug. 26) at a press briefing.
Combining the speed and thickness measurements allowed the
scientists to determine how much
ice was flowing into the ocean, while the climate
model allowed them to estimate how much snow was falling on the
ice sheet.
«People have been talking about the possible link between winds and Antarctic sea
ice expansion before, but I think this is the first study that confirms this link through a
model experiment,» commented Axel Schweiger, a polar
scientist at the UW Applied Physics Lab.
Scientists are involved in the evaluation of global - scale climate
models, regional studies of the coupled atmosphere / ocean /
ice systems, regional severe weather detection and prediction, measuring the local and global impact of the aerosols and pollutants, detecting lightning from space and the general development of remotely - sensed data bases.
To reach further back in time and provide a long - term record that can inform global climate
models,
scientists are turning to other means of measuring
ice mass.
«It will add to what is already being done by other
scientists on the Roi Baudouin
Ice Shelf, will bring a new data set for
models and will make a significant additional contribution to research activities at the Princess Elisabeth Antarctica Station».
They have tracked the rotten
ice to a depth of nearly 3 feet below the surface — a finding that could help
scientists who develop climate
models to better understand how
ice sheets are losing mass.
The authors compared recently constructed temperature data sets from Antarctica, based on data from
ice cores and ground weather stations, to 20th century simulations from computer
models used by
scientists to simulate global climate.
How do you think climate
scientists model and otherwise study past
ice ages if they ignore their cause?
Here are some possible choices — in order of increasing sophistication: * All (or most)
scientists agree (the principal Gore argument) * The 20th century is the warmest in 1000 years (the «hockeystick» argument) * Glaciers are melting, sea
ice is shrinking, polar bears are in danger, etc * Correlation — both CO2 and temperature are increasing * Sea levels are rising *
Models using both natural and human forcing accurately reproduce the detailed behavior of 20th century global temperature *
Modeled and observed PATTERNS of temperature trends («fingerprints») of the past 30 years agree
«An ongoing US Department of Energy - backed research project led by a US Navy
scientist predicts that the Arctic could lose its summer sea
ice cover as early as 2016 — 84 years ahead of conventional
model projections.»
A team of
scientists from the National Snow and
Ice Data Center and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which has compiled data on Arctic Ocean summer ice melting from 1953 to 2006, concluded that the ice is melting much faster than climate models had predict
Ice Data Center and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which has compiled data on Arctic Ocean summer
ice melting from 1953 to 2006, concluded that the ice is melting much faster than climate models had predict
ice melting from 1953 to 2006, concluded that the
ice is melting much faster than climate models had predict
ice is melting much faster than climate
models had predicted.
While finishing up her dissertation at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Parkinson and climate
scientist William Kellogg decided to take the theory about carbon dioxide emissions increasing global temperatures and apply it to a sea
ice model that Parkinson had built.
In this study,
scientists from Georgia Tech, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Columbia University expanded on previous research by combining observational data and
model simulations to explore the link between unusually large snowfall amounts in the Northern Hemisphere in recent winters and diminishing Arctic sea
ice.
Evaluating ocean and atmospheric observations with advanced
modeling tools,
scientists from NOAA and CIRES found that about 60 percent of 2016's record warmth was caused by record - low sea
ice observed that year, and the ensuing transfer of ocean heat to the atmosphere across wide expanses of
ice - free or barely frozen Arctic Ocean.
This is starting to make the second graph (below) looking reasonable, and those
scientists and
models which have been suggesting an sea -
ice - free summer Arctic within a decade to be on the money.
Scientists from the University of Erlangen - Nuremberg Institute of Geography and from the Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Gophysique de l'Environnement in Grenoble, France, used radar data from satellites such as ESA's Envisat and observations of
ice thickness from airborne surveys in a complex
model to demonstrate, for the first time, how the buttressing role of the
ice shelves is being compromised as the shelves decline.
Very few of these people would call themselves climate
scientists — they are a collection of people who study the ocean, air, past climate, numerical
models, physics,
ice, etc..
The US CLIVAR Greenland
Ice Sheet - Ocean Interactions Working Group was formed to foster and promote interaction between the diverse oceanographic, glaciological, atmospheric and climate communities, including modelers and field and data
scientists within each community, interested in glacier / ocean interactions around Greenland, to advance understanding of the process and ultimately improve its representation in climate
models.
The SIO produces reports in June, July, and August containing a variety of perspectives on Arctic sea
ice — from observations of current conditions, to advanced numerical
models, to qualitative perspectives from citizen
scientists.
To assure the
model was realistic, the
scientists drew on observations of changes in the altitude of the
ice sheet surface made by NASA's IceSat satellite and airborne Operation IceBridge campaign.
They used the
Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), a numerical depiction of the physics of ice sheets developed by scientists at JPL and the University of California, Irvi
Ice Sheet System
Model (ISSM), a numerical depiction of the physics of
ice sheets developed by scientists at JPL and the University of California, Irvi
ice sheets developed by
scientists at JPL and the University of California, Irvine.
«
scientists have assumed» «The climate
models assume» «assumption that Natural CO2 is totally fixed and unchanging» «if you assume a long lifetime for atmospheric CO2 ″ «falsification of the basic assumption» «it requires assumptions that violate empirical knowledge» «assumed so that the
ice cores and modern measurements fit together» «arbitrary and unjustified assumption»
Simulating the variation of the
ice sheet's albedo using a regional climate
model — Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR), which some members of the team helped develop — indicated that increasing temperatures and melting accompanied by snow grain growth and greater bare
ice exposure account for about half the decline, the
scientists report.
To better understand how climate change will affect the Greenland
ice sheet,
scientists modeled the melting Laurentide
ice sheet of 9000 years ago.
The new research finds that limiting warming to 1.5 C rather than 2C could «substantially» reduce the risk of
ice - free conditions in the coming decades, says Prof Michael Sigmond, a research
scientist at the Canadian Centre for Climate
Modelling and Analysis at Environment Canada and lead author of one of the new studies.
«Using complex new
modeling, the
scientists have found that rapidly melting Arctic sea
ice now threatens to diminish precipitation over California by as much as 15 percent within 20 to 30 years,» the Los Angeles Times writes.
Here's a prediction from 2007 where a climate
scientist predicts that Arctic sea
ice may disappear by 2013, saying that since his
modelling didn't include the last couple of record lows in its training data,» you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.»
A team of
scientists from the National Snow and
Ice Data Center and the National Center for Atmospheric Research concluded that the ice is melting much faster than climate models had predict
Ice Data Center and the National Center for Atmospheric Research concluded that the
ice is melting much faster than climate models had predict
ice is melting much faster than climate
models had predicted.
The climate
models that
scientists use to understand and project climate change are improving constantly, with better representations of the oceans,
ice, land surfaces and other factors in the atmosphere.
For the decade of 2007 - 2017 (left), the research team predicts that there may be some growth of winter sea
ice in the Arctic Ocean, particularly on the Atlantic side, where
scientists have the most confidence in the
model's ability.
For the decade of 2013 - 2023 (right), the
scientists expect to see some winter sea
ice loss balanced with sea
ice gain on the Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean, where
scientists have the most confidence in the
model's ability.
Hang on... we've been told for years by apparent top climate
scientists to expect less snowfalls, climate
models predict warmer winters, ex-politicians claiming
ice - free polar caps, hand - wringing news articles of children who would never experience snowfalls, on and on... but now we're expected to believe exactly the opposite because that's what's happening now.