GPS and seismic measurements together provide a means to answer critical questions about
ice sheet behavior in a warming world.
Not exact matches
Impacts of thermal expansion and melting mountain glaciers can be predicted with moderate confidence, but more uncertainty remains
in the potential
behavior of polar
ice sheets.
But, rapid change
in the
behavior of parts of the Antarctic
ice sheet might cause much greater rise than is often included
in coastal planning.
The plume has been a factor
in the
ice sheet's
behavior throughout its history, and recent surges
in melting are the result of all the additional heat humans have pumped into it.
Murali Haran, a professor
in the department of statistics at Penn State University; Won Chang, an assistant professor
in the department of mathematical sciences at the University of Cincinnati; Klaus Keller, a professor
in the department of geosciences and director of sustainable climate risk management at Penn State University; Rob Nicholas, a research associate at Earth and Environmental Systems Institute at Penn State University; and David Pollard, a senior scientist at Earth and Environmental Systems Institute at Penn State University detail how parameters and initial values drive an
ice sheet model, whose output describes the
behavior of the
ice sheet through time.
«Incorporating all of these uncertainties is daunting, largely because of the computational challenges involved,» and to an extent, «whatever we say about the
behavior of
ice sheets in the future is necessarily imperfect,» note the authors.
Evidence of past glacial advance and retreat is also more easily observed
in the Dry Valleys, providing a window into the past
behavior of the vast Antarctic
ice sheets and their influence on global sea levels.
«The past
behavior and dynamics of the Antarctic
ice sheets are among the most important open questions
in the scientific understanding of how the polar regions help to regulate global climate,» said Jennifer Burns, director of the NSF Antarctic Integrated Science System Program.
The findings, published yesterday
in the journal Science, suggest scientists still have much to learn about the factors that govern the
behavior of
ice sheets — knowledge that is crucial to developing more accurate projections of future sea level rise.
«We see processes that operate
in the climate system that either don't operate
in glacial times we've seen
in the last 2 million years, or they operate very differently,» she said, citing the
behavior of
ice sheets as an example.
This
in turn will provide a means to answer critical questions about the
ice sheet's
behavior in a warming world.
The information from the study helps improve scientists» understanding of the
behavior of the
ice sheet and what processes control the loss of
ice, Beata Csatho, a geophysicist at the University of Buffalo
in New York who was not involved with the work, said
in a commentary published
in the same issue of Nature.
For example, some exciting work being done by David Pollard and Rob DeConto suggests that processes such as
ice - cliff collapse and
ice - shelf hydrofracturing may play important roles
in future
ice sheet behavior that have not been well incorporated into most
ice sheet models.
Anandakrishnan, S., R.B. Alley, R.W. Jacobel and H. Conway, The flow regime of
ice stream C and hypotheses concerning its recent stagnation, in R.B. Alley and R.A. Bindschadler, eds., The West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Behavior and Environment, American Geophysical Union, Antarctic Research Series, v. 77, p. 283 - 296 (200
ice stream C and hypotheses concerning its recent stagnation,
in R.B. Alley and R.A. Bindschadler, eds., The West Antarctic
Ice Sheet: Behavior and Environment, American Geophysical Union, Antarctic Research Series, v. 77, p. 283 - 296 (200
Ice Sheet:
Behavior and Environment, American Geophysical Union, Antarctic Research Series, v. 77, p. 283 - 296 (2001).
«These are two of the largest and most rapidly changing glaciers
in Antarctica, so the potential for their evolution to influence each other is important to consider
in modeling
ice sheet behavior and projecting future sea level rise,» Dustin Schroeder, a Stanford geophysicist who led the study, told Earther.
This result would be strongly dependent on the exact dynamic response of the Greenland
ice sheet to surface meltwater, which is modeled poorly
in todays global models.Yes human influence on the climate is real and we might even now be able to document changes
in the
behavior of weather phenomena related to disasters (e.g., Emanuel 2005), but we certainly haven't yet seen it
in the impact record (i.e., economic losses) of extreme events.
We have a pretty good idea that the Heinrich events, with the most prominent bipolar seesaw
behavior, are linked to
ice -
sheet behavior, but we're less confident about the non-Heinrich cold phases of the D / O oscillations (the cold phases do have more
ice - rafted debris
in these non-Heinrich cold - phases than
in warm phases, but is that an
ice - dynamical signal, a survival - of - icebergs signal, or something else?).
Nonetheless, a recent probabilistic assessment based on IPCC projections and expert elicitations on
ice sheet behavior assigns a 0.5 % chance that global SLR will exceed 6.3 m by 2200 under RCP 8.5 (46), suggesting that all but the highest committed levels discussed here could be attained
in the relatively near term.
Studies of this kind, which explore the
ice sheet's past
behavior, are critical to developing better predictions of how it will evolve
in the future, Csatho says.
«The novel aspect of our study is that we discover biological processes play an important role
in ice sheet behavior,» Stibal said.
We need greater attention on the strength of uncertain processes and feedbacks
in the physical climate system (e.g. carbon cycle feedbacks,
ice sheet dynamics)(NRC 2013), as well as on institutional and behavioral feedbacks associated with energy production and consumption, to determine scientifically plausible bounds on total warming and the overall
behavior of the climate system (Heal and Millner 2014).
They ran a climate model to take account of variations
in sunlight and the rise and fall of CO2, then took snapshots from this model and fed them into a model for
ice -
sheet behavior and fed the result back into their climate model.
In understanding the behavior of ice sheets, attention is particularly focused on the boundary between the floating ice and grounded ice, which is usually called the grounding line, although in detail it is a zone with interesting but imperfectly understood properties (e.g., Schoof, 2007; Joughin et al., 2012a; Walker et al., 2013); see Figure 2.
In understanding the
behavior of
ice sheets, attention is particularly focused on the boundary between the floating
ice and grounded
ice, which is usually called the grounding line, although
in detail it is a zone with interesting but imperfectly understood properties (e.g., Schoof, 2007; Joughin et al., 2012a; Walker et al., 2013); see Figure 2.
in detail it is a zone with interesting but imperfectly understood properties (e.g., Schoof, 2007; Joughin et al., 2012a; Walker et al., 2013); see Figure 2.7.
Dr. Alley teaches, and conducts research on the climatic records, flow
behavior, and sedimentary deposits of large
ice sheets, to aid
in prediction of future changes
in climate and sea level.
«There's been a lot of speculation about the stability of marine
ice sheets, and many scientists suspected that this kind of
behavior is under way,» Ian Joughin, a glaciologist at the University of Washington
in Seattle, said
in a news release about one of the studies published Monday.
Forecasts of future
ice sheet behavior appear even more uncertain: Under the same high — global warming scenario, eight
ice sheet models predicted anywhere between 0 and 27 cm of sea level rise
in 2100 from Greenland melt.