Since we are talking about the models that are being used today to model the next 50 or so years and that those models don't generally include ice sheet models, it is correct to describe
ice sheet changes as forcings in this case.
This seems a bit odd giving an answer that ice sheet changes are caused by
ice sheet changes as if some circular reasoning hasn't been resolved.
Not exact matches
Following the maxim of keeping everything
as simple
as possible, but not simpler, Will Steffen from the Australian National University and I drew up an Anthropocene equation by homing in on the rate of
change of Earth's life support system: the atmosphere, oceans, forests and wetlands, waterways and
ice sheets and fabulous diversity of life.
Stewart Jamieson from Durham University in England and his colleagues made the discovery by looking for subtle
changes in the
ice sheet's surface shapes, developed
as a result of
ice flowing over diverse topography.
The first of these pathways, marine
ice sheet instability, has been studied for decades, but the second, marine
ice cliff instability, has only recently been considered
as an important contributor to future sea level
change.
Countless additional forces — melting
ice sheets, shifts in precipitation,
changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, to name a few — will influence the process
as well.
This effect is particularly apparent in parts of the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet (WAIS), long regarded
as the more vulnerable part of the continent to climate
change.
The digitized data extend the record of
changes at the bottom of the
ice sheet, such
as the formation of channels
as Antarctica's
ice flows, by more than two decades.
Today,
as warming waters caused by climate
change flow underneath the floating
ice shelves in Pine Island Bay, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is once again at risk of losing mass from rapidly retreating glacie
ice shelves in Pine Island Bay, the Antarctic
Ice Sheet is once again at risk of losing mass from rapidly retreating glacie
Ice Sheet is once again at risk of losing mass from rapidly retreating glaciers.
While some may see evidence of rapid glacier thinning in the past and again today
as evidence that the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet is nearing a collapse driven by human - caused climate
change, Steig said at this point, scientists just don't know whether that is the case.
Some climate scientists, including James E. Hansen, former head of the nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies, say we must also consider slower feedbacks such
as changes in the continental
ice sheets.
While the ECS factors in such «fast» feedback effects
as changes in water vapor — water itself is a greenhouse gas, and saturates warm air better than cold — they argued that slow feedbacks, such
as changes in
ice sheets and vegetation, should also be considered.
As climate
change warms Greenland and more
ice melts and makes its way into the sea, the
ice sheet is potentially becoming a more important source of nutrients, he said.
What's left to figure out is whether this is happening with other subglacial lakes around the Greenland
ice sheet,
as well
as whether and how to incorporate the findings into models that are aimed at gauging how much Greenland might
change with the warming climate and how much water it could add to the rising seas.
«These findings add to mounting evidence suggesting that there are sweet spots or «windows of opportunity» within climate space where so - called boundary conditions, such
as the level of atmospheric CO2 or the size of continental
ice sheets, make abrupt
change more likely to occur.
However,
as climate
change raises global air temperatures, it is possible that East Antarctic glaciers could start melting, a
change that could make the
ice sheet shift back into unstable territory.
There was an era called white earth which starts about 700 million years ago with alternating periods of deep
ice sheets and then hotter warmer stages which led to formation of various kinds of crystals, and last and luckily we live in the period known
as green earth, which started about 400 million years ago when multicellular life arose and wholly
changed to biochemical breakdown the makeup of the minerals on the planet again.
As global temperatures continue to increase, the hastening rise of those seas as glaciers and ice sheets melt threatens the very existence of the small island nation, Kiribati, whose corals offered up these vital clues from the warming past — and of an even hotter future, shortly after the next change in the wind
As global temperatures continue to increase, the hastening rise of those seas
as glaciers and ice sheets melt threatens the very existence of the small island nation, Kiribati, whose corals offered up these vital clues from the warming past — and of an even hotter future, shortly after the next change in the wind
as glaciers and
ice sheets melt threatens the very existence of the small island nation, Kiribati, whose corals offered up these vital clues from the warming past — and of an even hotter future, shortly after the next
change in the winds.
The shifting coastline is a sobering reminder that Greenland's
ice sheet is
changing,
as well, in ways that could have dramatic consequences throughout the rest of the world.
BANGLADESH is one of the countries at most risk from climate
change,
as it is low - lying and could be swamped by rising seas — particularly if they rise by several metres (see «
Ice sheets on course for collapse «-RRB-.
Others have used tide gauge data to measure GMSL acceleration, but scientists have struggled to pull out other important details from tide - gauge data, such
as changes in the last couple of decades due to more active
ice sheet melt.
Even if we could freeze - frame the atmosphere
as it is today, sea levels would still rise by 25 metres, says the latest study into the effects of climate
change on melting
ice sheets.
Indeed, one of the findings in the recent paper by Overpeck et al. (this weeks Science), is that even
as the Greenland
ice sheet melts faster than originally expected, it still won't provide sufficient meltwater forcing of the North Atlantic circulation (which is the feature of the climate system most commonly implicated in the discussion of «tipping points») to force any sort of threshold
change.
«The Greenland
ice sheet as a whole is shrinking, melting and reducing in size
as the result of globally
changing air and ocean temperatures and associated
changes in circulation patterns in both the ocean and atmosphere,» Muenchow said.
«The big question is whether the
ice sheet will react to these
changing ocean conditions
as rapidly
as it did 14,000 years ago,» said lead author Dr Nick Golledge, a senior research fellow at Victoria's Antarctic Research Centre.
Although experts aren't sure what role climate
change played in the
ice sheet's demise, they see it
as an opportunity to improve our understanding of how glaciers will disintegrate
as the planet warms.
This effort is going on, with major projects such
as the EU funded
Ice2sea project, which has brought together researchers across disciplines, from across Europe, in order to address the challenges faced in predicting the contribution of
ice sheets to future sea level
change.
Anderson, J.B. and Thomas, M.A., 1991, Marine
ice sheet decoupling
as a mechanism for rapid, episodic sea - level
change: the record of such events and their influence on sedimentation: Sedimentary Geology, v. 70, p. 87 - 104.
It is important to regard the LGM studies
as just one set of points in the cloud yielded by other climate sensitivity estimates, but the LGM has been a frequent target because it was a period for which there is a lot of data from varied sources, climate was significantly different from today, and we have considerable information about the important drivers — like CO2, CH4,
ice sheet extent, vegetation
changes etc..
We call this the Charney climate sensitivity, because it is essentially the case considered by Charney (1979), in which water vapor, clouds and sea
ice were allowed to
change in response to climate
change, but GHG (greenhouse gas) amounts,
ice sheet area, sea level and vegetation distributions were taken
as specified boundary conditions.
If climate
change exceeds the temperature target, scientists warn, there is a greater risk that the world's
ice sheets will be destabilized, leading to sharply rising seas, and increasing climate extremes such
as droughts, heat waves and floods, which could pose daunting challenges for food and water availability for growing populations.
Interactions between the ocean and
ice sheets are particularly important in determining
ice sheet changes,
as a warming ocean can melt the
ice shelves, the tongues of
ice that extend from the
ice sheets into the ocean and buttress the large land - based
ice sheets [92], [202]--[203].
During periods when
ice sheets have been relatively stable, such
as the last several millennia (the late Holocene), sub-millennial sea - level variability arose primarily from
changes in atmosphere / ocean dynamics.
Slow feedbacks, such
as change of
ice sheet area and climate - driven
changes of greenhouse gases, are not included.
But public awareness of the urgency of the climate challenge remains low even
as journalists report more deeply about how global warming will alter our cities and environment and how we'll have to adapt to those
changes as wildfires rage,
ice sheets melt and seas rise.
National Snow and
Ice Data Center This comprehensive National Snow and Ice Data Center Web site, useful for teacher reference or for older students, includes information on snow and ice as indicators of climate change, snow avalanches, blizzards, historical snow data, the climate of the Arctic and Antarctic regions, glaciers, sea ice, ice sheets, ice shelves, and iceber
Ice Data Center This comprehensive National Snow and
Ice Data Center Web site, useful for teacher reference or for older students, includes information on snow and ice as indicators of climate change, snow avalanches, blizzards, historical snow data, the climate of the Arctic and Antarctic regions, glaciers, sea ice, ice sheets, ice shelves, and iceber
Ice Data Center Web site, useful for teacher reference or for older students, includes information on snow and
ice as indicators of climate change, snow avalanches, blizzards, historical snow data, the climate of the Arctic and Antarctic regions, glaciers, sea ice, ice sheets, ice shelves, and iceber
ice as indicators of climate
change, snow avalanches, blizzards, historical snow data, the climate of the Arctic and Antarctic regions, glaciers, sea
ice, ice sheets, ice shelves, and iceber
ice,
ice sheets, ice shelves, and iceber
ice sheets,
ice shelves, and iceber
ice shelves, and icebergs.
Glacial climatic fluctuations caused habitat
changes, including the appearance of continental
ice sheets as far south
as Washington State [37], that may have caused range shifts in locally adapted gray fox populations, with foxes with clade B haplotypes existing
as far south
as southern California.
Indeed, one of the findings in the recent paper by Overpeck et al. (this weeks Science), is that even
as the Greenland
ice sheet melts faster than originally expected, it still won't provide sufficient meltwater forcing of the North Atlantic circulation (which is the feature of the climate system most commonly implicated in the discussion of «tipping points») to force any sort of threshold
change.
The standard climate sensitivity and climate model do not in - clude effects of «slow» climate feedbacks such
as change in
ice sheet size.
Among the
ice sheet dynamics to fret about I see this
change in the temperature of the
ice from say -30 C to
ice - at - 0C and the subsequent uptake of the heat to go from
ice - at - 0C to water - at - 0C
as the «dark matter» of the cryosphere.
That is, other feedbacks come into play — vegetation,
ice sheets, aerosols, CH4 etc. will all
change as a function a warming (or cooling), which are not included in the standard climate sensitivity definition.
But what the GSL now says is that geological evidence from palaeoclimatology (studies of past climate
change) suggests that if longer - term factors are taken into account, such
as the decay of large
ice sheets, the Earth's sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 could itself be double that predicted by most climate models.
In probing the fast -
changing ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland, Gordon Hamilton of the University of Maine exemplified the qualities in the rare breed of scientists, engineers and field staff willing to go to extremes — literally — to help clarify the pace at which seas will rise
as warming glacial
ice melts.
As temperatures warmed slightly due to insolation
changes caused by orbital cycles,
ice sheets retreated slightly.
``... estimates of future rises remain hazy, mostly because there are many uncertainties, from the lack of data on what
ice sheets did in the past to predict how they will react to warming, insufficient long - term satellite data to unpick the effects of natural climate
change from that caused by man and a spottiness in the degree to which places such
as Antarctica have warmed....
As for irreversible, if an
ice sheet starts flowing, or if an albedo
change from sea
ice gets locked in, I could imagine a climate
change being essentially irreversible even if CO2 was brought back down, but it's just speculation, nothing more.
[Response: This is way OT, but it's because
as the orbit
changes the insolation forcing periodically makes it easier to form
ice sheets.
Instead, to constrain the Charney sensitivity from the
ice age cycle you need to specifically extract out those long term
changes (in
ice sheets, vegetation, sea level etc.) and then estimate the total radiative forcing including these
changes as forcing, not responses.
In their latest Science paper submittal Jim Hansen, et al. argue that we must reduce atmospheric CO2 to below 350 ppm because so - called «slow feedbacks» such
as changes in
ice sheet albedo are occurring much faster than expected.
Other forcings, including the growth and decay of massive Northern Hemisphere continental
ice sheets,
changes in atmospheric dust, and
changes in the ocean circulation, are not likely to have the same kind of effect in a future warming scenario
as they did at glacial times.