Revelle (1983); similarly Thomas et al. (1979); Bentley (1980) saw a possible
ice sheet collapse in the next 500 years; but Bentley (1982) said melting could take thousands of years; this was disputed by Hughes (1982); Hollin (1980) tried to demonstrate an East Antarctic ice sheet surge about 95,000 years ago; for predictions of meter - scale rises, see Jones and Henderson - Sellers (1990), pp. 10 - 11, 15; a skeptic: Van der Veen (1985); Van der Veen (1988).
Hence our answer to the question, «are the observations of the last few decades a harbinger of continued
ice sheet collapse in West Antarctica?»
Not exact matches
The precariously moored West Antarctic
ice sheet probably won't
collapse into the ocean all
in one go as the climate warms.
The risk is real: we know that the West Antarctic
ice sheet has
collapsed many times
in the past, raising sea levels at least 3 metres.
«
Ice - cliff
collapse has been debated as a theoretical process that might cause West Antarctic
Ice Sheet retreat to accelerate
in the future,» said co-author Dr Robert Larter, from the British Antarctic Survey.
While some may see evidence of rapid glacier thinning
in the past and again today as evidence that the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet is nearing a
collapse driven by human - caused climate change, Steig said at this point, scientists just don't know whether that is the case.
When the planet's big
ice sheets collapsed at the end of the last
ice age, their melting caused global sea levels to rise as much as 100 meters
in roughly 10,000 years, which is fast
in geological time, Mann noted.
But when the glacier retreats past that bulwark, it will
collapse into the ocean; then seawater will intrude and melt channels into the
ice sheet, setting the juggernaut
in motion.
«
Collapse of European
ice sheet caused chaos
in past.»
Those changes may include the loss of Arctic summer sea
ice, the
collapse of
ice sheets in Greenland and western Antarctica, dieback of the Amazon rainforest and changes
in the jet stream and the pattern of El Niño and La Niña weather cycles.
Dr Ian Joughin at the University of Washington, author of a recent study simulating future Antarctic
ice sheet losses added: «This study does a nice job of revealing the strong thinning along the Amundsen Coast, which is consistent with theory and models indicating this region is
in the early stages of
collapse.»
«We know that there could potentially be catastrophic
collapse of the
ice sheets — we know it has happened
in the past — but we don't know how likely it is to happen over our time scale.
It was bad enough to learn last year that the
ice sheets of West Antarctica were headed toward inevitable
collapse in just a few centuries and that the world would have to contend with the more than 3 meters of water they hold.
Vaughan, D.G., and J.R. Spouge, Risk estimation of
collapse of the West Antarctic
ice sheet., Climatic Change,
in press.
In its latest assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that there wasn't sufficient evidence available to put an exact number on how much the
collapse of marine - based
ice sheets could add to sea levels by 2100.
For example, some exciting work being done by David Pollard and Rob DeConto suggests that processes such as
ice - cliff
collapse and
ice - shelf hydrofracturing may play important roles
in future
ice sheet behavior that have not been well incorporated into most
ice sheet models.
The rate of release from the tundra alone is predicted to reach 1.5 billion tons of carbon per annum before 2030, contributing to accelerated climate change, perhaps resulting
in sustained decadal doubling of
ice loss causing collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet (Hansen et al, 201
ice loss causing
collapse of the Greenland
Ice Sheet (Hansen et al, 201
Ice Sheet (Hansen et al, 2011).
in the last 18 months suggesting the
collapse of the West Antarctic
ice sheet was already underway — which it probably is, Scambos adds.
Ice shelf collapse and glacier recession here, in front of the large ice streams such as Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier, would have potential to raise sea levels by tens of centimetres to a metre, through the process of marine ice sheet instability
Ice shelf
collapse and glacier recession here,
in front of the large
ice streams such as Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier, would have potential to raise sea levels by tens of centimetres to a metre, through the process of marine ice sheet instability
ice streams such as Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier, would have potential to raise sea levels by tens of centimetres to a metre, through the process of marine
ice sheet instability
ice sheet instability23.
Given that the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet has a total sea level equivalent of 3.3 m1, with 1.5 m from Pine Island Glacier alone4, marine ice sheet collapse could be a significant challenge for future generations, with major changes in rates of sea level rise being possible within just the next couple of hundred yea
Ice Sheet has a total sea level equivalent of 3.3 m1, with 1.5 m from Pine Island Glacier alone4, marine ice sheet collapse could be a significant challenge for future generations, with major changes in rates of sea level rise being possible within just the next couple of hundred y
Sheet has a total sea level equivalent of 3.3 m1, with 1.5 m from Pine Island Glacier alone4, marine
ice sheet collapse could be a significant challenge for future generations, with major changes in rates of sea level rise being possible within just the next couple of hundred yea
ice sheet collapse could be a significant challenge for future generations, with major changes in rates of sea level rise being possible within just the next couple of hundred y
sheet collapse could be a significant challenge for future generations, with major changes
in rates of sea level rise being possible within just the next couple of hundred years.
This process is difficult to accurately model, but rapid
ice sheet collapse would certainly result
in dramatically higher rates of sea level rise once this critical threshold is passed.
Geologic shoreline evidence has been interpreted as indicating a rapid sea level rise of a few meters late
in the Eemian to a peak about 9 meters above present, suggesting the possibility that a critical stability threshold was crossed that caused polar
ice sheet collapse [84]--[85], although there remains debate within the research community about this specific history and interpretation.
If the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet collapses, sea level will fall close to the Antarctic and will rise much more than the expected estimate
in the northern hemisphere because of this gravitational effect;
However, we should consider the scenarios where a disastrous Greenland
ice sheet collapse occurs
in case that can happen.
It is well known that
ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula have
collapsed on several occasions
in the last couple of decades, that
ice shelves
in West Antarctica are thinning rapidly, and that the large outlet glaciers that drain the West Antarctic
ice sheet (WAIS) are accelerating.
However,
in periods
in the past, say around 8,200 years ago, or during the last
ice age, there is lots of evidence that this circulation was greatly reduced, possibly as a function of surface freshwater forcing from large lake
collapses or from the
ice sheets.
Again about WAIS
collapse Here at this mark 35 mins
in R. Alley explains why
Ice Sheet retreat is based on thresholds (local topography).
In any case, there are no massive ice sheets going to rapidly collapse at any time in the readily foreseeable futur
In any case, there are no massive
ice sheets going to rapidly
collapse at any time
in the readily foreseeable futur
in the readily foreseeable future.
This idea may also explain the mystery of why Heinrich events,
collapses of the Laurentide
ice sheet, always came at cold times
in the D - O cycles.
The authors, led by James E. Hansen, the veteran climatologist - turned - campaigner, stitch a variety of findings and simulations into a worrisome vision of a looming and abrupt
collapse of Antarctic
ice sheets and a multi-meter rise
in storm - raked seas.
John Mercer,
in 1968 and 1970, called attention to the fact that the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet (WAIS) was grounded mostly below sea level, calling it a «marine ice sheet» that was therefore inherently unstable, and proposed that the higher sea level resulted from its LIM collapse 125,000 years a
Ice Sheet (WAIS) was grounded mostly below sea level, calling it a «marine ice sheet» that was therefore inherently unstable, and proposed that the higher sea level resulted from its LIM collapse 125,000 years
Sheet (WAIS) was grounded mostly below sea level, calling it a «marine
ice sheet» that was therefore inherently unstable, and proposed that the higher sea level resulted from its LIM collapse 125,000 years a
ice sheet» that was therefore inherently unstable, and proposed that the higher sea level resulted from its LIM collapse 125,000 years
sheet» that was therefore inherently unstable, and proposed that the higher sea level resulted from its LIM
collapse 125,000 years ago.
Until we have a shift
in attitudes
in the USA towards the precautionary approach, we will continue to bicker about whether this or that climate impact (be it frogs, salmon, hurricanes,
ice sheet collapse, etc.) is REALLY due to climate change or not.
«Which is the more environmentally sensitive thing to do: let the Greenland
ice sheet collapse, or throw a little sulfate
in the stratosphere?»
In Hansen, 2005, he talks about the use of the word «explosive» in relationship to ice sheet collaps
In Hansen, 2005, he talks about the use of the word «explosive»
in relationship to ice sheet collaps
in relationship to
ice sheet collapse.
Which is the more environmentally sensitive thing to do: let the Greenland
ice sheet collapse and polar bears become extinct, or throw a little sulfate
in the stratosphere?
The Royal Society report includes references to Clark et al, 2016
in Nature Climate Change, suggesting the final sea level rise on millennia timescale caused by anthropogenic climate change (partly depending on future emissions) lies
in a range between 29 to 55 metres and to DeConto & Pollard, 2016
in Nature, a study suggesting hydro - fracturing and
ice cliff
collapse around Antarctic
ice sheets increases high end projection for sea level rise by 2100 to ± 2 metres.
The USGS,
in one estimate, has stated that a total
collapse of both the Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheets could potentially raise eustatic sea - level 260 feet.
Air pressure changes, allergies increase, Alps melting, anxiety, aggressive polar bears, algal blooms, Asthma, avalanches, billions of deaths, blackbirds stop singing, blizzards, blue mussels return, boredom, budget increases, building season extension, bushfires, business opportunities, business risks, butterflies move north, cannibalistic polar bears, cardiac arrest, Cholera, civil unrest, cloud increase, cloud stripping, methane emissions from plants, cold spells (Australia), computer models, conferences, coral bleaching, coral reefs grow, coral reefs shrink, cold spells, crumbling roads, buildings and sewage systems, damages equivalent to $ 200 billion, Dengue hemorrhagic fever, dermatitis, desert advance, desert life threatened, desert retreat, destruction of the environment, diarrhoea, disappearance of coastal cities, disaster for wine industry (US), Dolomites
collapse, drought, drowning people, drowning polar bears, ducks and geese decline, dust bowl
in the corn belt, early spring, earlier pollen season, earthquakes, Earth light dimming, Earth slowing down, Earth spinning out of control, Earth wobbling, El Nià ± o intensification, erosion, emerging infections, encephalitis,, Everest shrinking, evolution accelerating, expansion of university climate groups, extinctions (ladybirds, pandas, pikas, polar bears, gorillas, whales, frogs, toads, turtles, orang - utan, elephants, tigers, plants, salmon, trout, wild flowers, woodlice, penguins, a million species, half of all animal and plant species), experts muzzled, extreme changes to California, famine, farmers go under, figurehead sacked, fish catches drop, fish catches rise, fish stocks decline, five million illnesses, floods, Florida economic decline, food poisoning, footpath erosion, forest decline, forest expansion, frosts, fungi invasion, Garden of Eden wilts, glacial retreat, glacial growth, global cooling, glowing clouds, Gore omnipresence, Great Lakes drop, greening of the North, Gulf Stream failure, Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, harvest increase, harvest shrinkage, hay fever epidemic, heat waves, hibernation ends too soon, hibernation ends too late, human fertility reduced, human health improvement, hurricanes, hydropower problems, hyperthermia deaths,
ice sheet growth,
ice sheet shrinkage, inclement weather, Inuit displacement, insurance premium rises, invasion of midges, islands sinking, itchier poison ivy, jellyfish explosion, Kew Gardens taxed, krill decline, landslides, landslides of
ice at 140 mph, lawsuits increase, lawyers» income increased (surprise surprise!)
The heat source isn't new or increasing, but may help explain why the
ice sheet collapsed so rapidly
in an earlier area of climate change and remains unstable.
The Thwaites Glacier «drains the so - called weak underbelly of the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet» (Alley et al. 2015) and this glacier was identified in 1981 as the most likely conduit for collapse of the ice she
Ice Sheet» (Alley et al. 2015) and this glacier was identified in 1981 as the most likely conduit for collapse of the ice s
Sheet» (Alley et al. 2015) and this glacier was identified
in 1981 as the most likely conduit for
collapse of the
ice she
ice sheetsheet.
The impacts of
ice shelf
collapse and ensuing glacier acceleration are substantial, but
in general, the effects of ocean melt are proving to be far more important
in controlling
ice sheet mass balance.
The rate of release from the tundra alone is predicted to reach 1.5 billion tons of carbon per annum before 2030, contributing to accelerated climate change, perhaps resulting
in sustained decadal doubling of
ice loss causing collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet (Hansen et al, 201
ice loss causing
collapse of the Greenland
Ice Sheet (Hansen et al, 201
Ice Sheet (Hansen et al, 2011).
The first version, the «baseline» case, employs a minor modification of the warming — SLR relationship from Levermann et al. (10) The second version, the «triggered» case, makes a major adjustment to explore an important possibility suggested by recent research, by assuming that an inevitable
collapse of the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet (WAIS) already has been set
in motion (17 ⇓ — 19).
Even if the estimates of the
ice sheet collapsing by the end of the century were correct, however, it would likely take much longer than that for the effect of methane hydrates to become detectable
in the atmosphere, says Alexey Portnov, a researcher at the Arctic University of Tromsø
in Norway.
When one couples the plausibility of underground heat causing instability
in one region with the old newspaper articles about fears of
ice sheet collapse from 100 years ago, at a minimum a reasonable person should wonder what has really been going on for many centuries.
Although the heat source isn't a new or increasing threat to the West Antarctic
ice sheet, it may help explain why the
ice sheet collapsed rapidly
in an earlier era of rapid climate change, and why it is so unstable today.
An important
ice shelf responsible for pinning back much of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is in danger of collapse, according to new studies out tod
ice shelf responsible for pinning back much of the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet is in danger of collapse, according to new studies out tod
Ice Sheet is
in danger of
collapse, according to new studies out today.
The study, accepted for publication
in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, comes one week after other studies claimed that the «
collapse» of some glaciers
in the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet may be inevitable, due to manmade global warming and other factors.
Knies, J. & Vogt, C. Freshwater pulses
in the eastern Arctic Ocean during Saalian and early weichselian
ice -
sheet collapse.
A National Academy of Sciences report attributes a primary cause of those thunderous West Antarctic
Ice Sheet iceberg
collapses we often see featured
in the media to geothermal heat from seabed volcanoes below.