By the end of the century, the melting rate could surpass the point associated
with ice shelf collapse, it is claimed.
Scambos TA, Bohlander JA, Shuman CA, Skvarca P. Glacier acceleration and thinning after
ice shelf collapse in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica.
But as the chain
of ice shelf collapse pushes farther south from the peninsula's tip toward the mainland, to Larsen B and Scar Inlet, it is now entering the ominous realm of historical anomaly.
So when the northern part of the Larsen
B ice shelf collapsed into the sea in March 2002, it was not a total surprise.
Removal of the ice shelf would likely result in rapid acceleration, thinning and recession as the glacier adjusts to new boundary conditions; these reactions have been observed
following ice shelf collapse around the Antarctic Peninsula17 - 21.
Warm Pliocene ocean waters would have facilitated such a retreat of this part of the EAIS into the Central Basin, occurring at the same time
as ice shelf collapse and ice margin retreat in other circum - Antarctic locations, such as the Ross Sea.
«These two papers clearly illustrate, for the first time, the relationship
between ice shelf collapses caused by climate warming, and accelerated glacier flow,» Rignot remarks
Quaternary scientists can use micro-organisms preserved in marine muds and onshore in lakes [25 - 27] to reconstruct past temperatures, ocean currents, rates of environmental change [28] and previous ice shelf collapses [29 - 31].
The team's next steps include looking more closely at specific ocean swell events and sea ice conditions during
known ice shelf collapses and large iceberg calving events.
When a
catastrophic ice shelf collapse in Antarctica opened up prime ocean real estate, enterprising delicate creatures called glass sponges showed up with unprecedented speed to stake their claim.
Balmy surface temperatures, not an unstable underbelly, probably prompted the
largest ice shelf collapse ever recorded, researchers report in the Sept. 12 Science.
Two years ago, Antarctica's Larsen B
ice shelf collapsed over the course of 35 days; 3,250 square kilometers of shelf area — an area larger than that of Rhode Island — disintegrated.
All of those lakes mysteriously and simultaneously drained just before the breakup commenced — a possible warning sign for
future ice shelf collapses, the team contends.
However, if the
remaining ice shelf collapses or starts losing mass more rapidly, it could effectively unplug the glaciers next to the shelf, sending land - based ice into Southern Ocean, and contributing to sea level rise.
Based on the seasonality of ice shelf break up, and the geographic distribution of
ice shelf collapse near the southerly - progressing -9 °C isotherm, it appears that surface ponding is necessary for ice - shelf collapse [12].
Scientists have become growingly concerned
about ice shelf collapse, and in 2016, they proposed a new rule allowing for special study areas following collapse or massive calving events.
«This has already occurred in places like the Antarctic Peninsula, where we've observed warming and
abrupt ice shelf collapses in the last few decades.
By examining
past ice shelf collapse and projecting the next century of temperature change onto current ice shelves, Trusel and his fellow researchers found a huge difference between a business - as - usual fossil fuel emission scenario, in which ice melt may increase eight-fold, and a scenario where emissions are stabilized relatively rapidly and ice melt remains relatively linear.
Dramatic images of
ice shelf collapse like this — mixed with a healthy dose of Hollywood - style exaggeration — could understandably lead someone to believe the entire continent could be next.
A recurring statement was that we have essentially no skill at modeling dynamic processes of accelerated glacier flow, and thus there is low to no predictive ability for either the collapse of ice shelfs or the effects of accelerated flow
following ice shelf collapse.
Researchers had previously speculated on a link
between ice shelf collapse and the Southern Annular Mode, based mainly on elevated air temperatures.
With glaciers thinning, accelerating and receding in response to ice shelf collapse [20, 21], more ice is directly transported into the oceans, making a direct contribution to sea level rise.
There are no manufacturers» specs for this, and no reputable climatologist is going to waste good grant money on monitoring my personal catastrophe meter in order to understand the physics
of ice shelf collapse, for example.
Ice shelves collapse in response to long term environmental changes, which cause on - going thinning and shrinking.
Glaciers around the Antarctic Peninsula are shrinking particularly rapidly, and this is exacerbated
by ice shelf collapse.
Marcus Brigstocke, the comedian, came in to talk to us about a trip he'd been on to Cape Farewell in the Arctic, to see
the ice shelves collapsing and the physical effects of climate change.
Still, climate change did impact other icebergs and
ice shelf collapses in the region recently.
The authors conclude «
Ice shelf collapse has triggered particularly strong thinning that has endured for decades.»
Labile organic carbon dynamics in continental shelf sediments recently exposed after
an ice shelf collapse: a radiochemical approach to the Larsen system off the eastern Antarctic Peninsula.
Scientists recognized that climate change is rapidly altering the landscape in Antarctica, particularly when it comes to glacier retreat and
ice shelf collapse, so they made a pact for how they would approach research as huge chunks of ice broke off.
If
the ice shelves collapse, this land ice ends up in the ocean and consequently sea level will rise.
Ice shelf collapse and glacier recession here, in front of the large ice streams such as Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier, would have potential to raise sea levels by tens of centimetres to a metre, through the process of marine ice sheet instability23.
Sea level rise due to
ice shelf collapse is as yet limited, but large ice shelves surrounding some of the major Antarctic glaciers could be at risk, and their collapse would result in a significant sea level rise contribution [22].