Sentences with phrase «ice trend by»

«Global Sea ice trend by year only (barely) crosses 95 % significance when the first two months of satellite data is included for the entire record.»

Not exact matches

Edible cookie dough has been a hot trend in the foodie world, with shops in big cities like New York serving it by the scoop like ice cream.

Long - term predictions of summer Arctic extent made by global climate models (GCMs) suggest that the downward trend will likely lead to an ice - free Arctic summer in the middle of the century.

The trends revealed by the data were clear: The average albedo in the northern area of the Arctic Ocean, including open water and sea ice, is declining in all summer months (May - August).

And she describes sobering trends: The projection that Switzerland will lose more than half of its small glaciers in the next 25 years; the substantial retreat of glaciers from the Antarctic, Patagonia, the Himalayas, Greenland and the Arctic; the disappearance of iconic glaciers in Glacier National Park, Montana, or reduction to chunks of ice that no longer move (by definition, a glacier must be massive enough to move).

Comiso and other climate scientists reject the suggestion that his data set may overestimate the recent trend in Antarctic sea - ice growth — by as much as two - thirds, according to Eisenman's analysis.

Large - scale surface temperature reconstructions yield a generally consistent picture of temperature trends during the preceding millennium, including relatively warm conditions centered around A.D. 1000 (identified by some as the «Medieval Warm Period») and a relatively cold period (or «Little Ice Age») centered around 1700.

Current predictions [5], [6] suggest that trends in sea ice extent will alter in the second half of this century and that the annual average sea ice extent will diminish by 33 %; most of this retreat is expected to occur in winter and spring [5], [6], with attendant risks for emperor penguins.

Changes in the winds around Antarctica therefore change ice - concentration trends around Antarctica [8] by influencing sea - ice production and melt rates [9].

Collectively, these observations can be used to project trends of ocean acidification in higher latitude marine surface waters where inorganic carbon chemistry is largely influenced by sea ice meltwater.

«Environmental scientists have been saying for some time that the global economy is being slowly undermined by environmental trends of human origin, including shrinking forests, expanding deserts, falling water tables, eroding soils, collapsing fisheries, rising temperatures, melting ice, rising seas, and increasingly destructive storms,» 6.

It is difficult to see how a person in the general public should not be concerned by the downward trend of Arctic sea ice volume.

«According to a 1972 article in the Christian Science Monitor, Belchen asserted that «a general warming trend over the North Pole is melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice - free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000 ″»

What about the feedbacks that are not normally well represented by ECS and normally fall into the Earth System Climate Sensitivity, stuff like the Arctic Ice cover, which now has trends over decades closer to what was seen on centuries in paleoclimate:

~ Our study confirms many changes seen in upper Arctic Ocean circulation in the 1990s were mostly decadal in nature, rather than trends caused by global warming,» / / www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2007-131 [ANDY REVKIN comments: That's precisely what I wrote in the Science Times feature on Arctic ice in September (link is in the post).

Although a recent downward trend in coverage is clearly visible by naked eye inspection, Goddard invites us to believe there has ``... been no net gain or loss of polar sea ice since records began.»

If aerosols and GHGs have a lower forcing, that must be compensated by a larger forcing for something else, to fit past temperature trends (especially the 1945 - 1975 period and other — little — ice ages).

BPL: The warming trend is not twenty years old, but 165 years old by direct measurements and perhaps 250 years old if you include ice - core data.

What if history repeats itself and the warming trend we currently have will be followed by a cooling period similar to what is known as the «little ice age»?

The same issues have dogged other attempts by climate scientists to glean clues on climate trends from bodies of data collected by satellites and weather balloons for other reasons (not to mention ongoing attempts to discern climate patterns in tree rings, ice layers, and other natural substitutes for thermometers; remember the «hockey stick» debate?).

The lower trend found by our study is consistent with the median projected sums of thermal expansion and glacier mass loss, implying that no net contribution from polar ice sheets is needed over 1901 - 1990.

By forecasting more sea ice this summer, I am going against the grain; the posts here mainly assume a downard trend (though of course one year does not change in trend).

Unfortunately, the tough scientific work to clarify ice and sea trends and dynamics has largely been obscured online by coverage focused on an error on Greenland ice loss that many polar scientists say made it into the new edition of the Times Comprehensive Atlas of the World (that's the British Times, just to be clear).

A significant northward trend (reduction of ice) in the winter - maximum ice edge is apparent, however, and appears to be caused by the gradual warming of sea - surface temperatures in the region (paper available on this if you want it).

The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (whose reports are conservative by nature), and a range of other assessments all conclude with high confidence that — for better or worse — the long - term Arctic trend for summer sea ice is down, given the projected buildup of greenhouse gases and tendency of the Arctic to amplify warming.

Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).

Comiso and other climate scientists reject the suggestion that his data set may overestimate the recent trend in Antarctic sea - ice growth — by as much as two - thirds, according to Eisenman's analysis.

This means that the current warming trend is qualitatively different from those we can study through ice cores etc., even if past warming was amplified by a CO2 feedback.

Updated, July 23, 1:40 p.m. A new study of methods used to track Antarctic sea ice trends has raised important questions about whether recent increases in ice there are, to a significant extent, an illusion created by flawed analysis of data collected by a series of satellites.

None of the sea - ice specialists I've interviewed since 2000 on Arctic trends ever predicted a straight - line path to an open - water Arctic, but quite a few have stressed the longstanding idea that as white ice retreats, solar energy that would have been reflected back into space is absorbed by the dark sea, with that heat then melting existing ice and shortening the winter frozen season.

iheartheidicullen @ 162: Sorry if my tone was intemperate, but really the SH and NH sea ice trends have been analysed at length online by Tamino and others, over the last year or two, with the clear conclusion that the SH anomaly trend is small (the anomaly at the maximum last year was about 1.5 % of the mean annual maximum, if I remember correctly) and not statistically significant (at the 95 % level, I think), whereas the NH trend is large (tens of percent), long - lived, and statistically very significant indeed.

The past two weeks have not been good for the Arctic and climate change: First, scientists discover that permafrost holds more greenhouse gases than we thought; Second, sea ice melt - off is at its second greatest amount ever and could set a new record by summer's end; Third, new research confirms that the past decade has indeed been the warmest since the Romans occupied Britain, and the trend is for more warming.

even as we are probably being propelled into a new ice age, by forces independent of human activity, the warming oceans, most probably largely caused by undersea volcanic activity in the pacific ocean, may cause a continuing warming trend in alaska.

«We expect that if the trends continue, compared with today, polar bears will experience another six to seven weeks of ice - free periods by mid-century.»

The very next year the same magazine reported that «The world may be inching into a prolonged warming trend that is the direct result of burning more and more fossil fuels...» The ice - age theories, said the article, «are being convincingly opposed by growing evidence of human impact.»

remember the arctic sea ice trend remember the kilimanjaro glacier trend à ¯ f the trend presists it'll all be gone by 2050.

Well in the 70's and early 80's you had the cooling trend crowd who predicted that by now we would be having another ice age.

Everyone should consider the possibility that for some indices, North Atlantic correlations (in correlation maps) are depressed by the North Atlantic's sensitivity (being the smaller northern basin surrounded by a lot of land / ice, resulting «higher continentality»), which gives it a propensity towards high amplitude oscillations, including decadal - timescale nonlinear trends.

Canadian Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictoIce Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictoice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictoice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictoice predictors.

bozzza - The differences in the Arctic are perhaps 1/4 the ocean thermal mass as global ocean averages, small overall size (the smallest ocean), being almost surrounded by land (which warms faster), more limited liquid interchanges due to bottlenecking than the Antarctic, and very importantly considerable susceptibility to positive albedo feedbacks; as less summer ice is present given current trends, solar energy absorbed by the Arctic ocean goes up very rapidly.

People observed this trend of earlier ice - out dates by comparing to their own recollections, and all one has to do is look at the aggregated data which has been collected over the years.

«Our analyses indicate that the overall sea - ice trend is dominated by increased ice - shelf melt», the Dutch scientists report.

The antarctic ice winter max decreased by about one third during this period, and the HadCRUT temp data base for that region during that period does show a substantial surface air temperature warming trend.

«To summarize - Using the 60 and 1000 year quasi repetitive patterns in conjunction with the solar data leads straightforwardly to the following reasonable predictions for Global SSTs 1 Continued modest cooling until a more significant temperature drop at about 2016 - 17 2 Possible unusual cold snap 2021 - 22 3 Built in cooling trend until at least 2024 4 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035 — 0.15 5Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 — 0.5 6 General Conclusion — by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed, 7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the little ice agby 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed, 7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the little ice agBy 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the little ice age.

A positive trend for dispersed sea ice extent in the Antarctic in winter amid rising winter temperature in the southern hemisphere is not matched by trends in concentrated sea ice extent and the degree of dispersion and is discounted as spurious.

(08/31/2009) If current melting trends continue, the Arctic Ocean is likely to be free of summer sea ice by 2015, according to research presented at a conference organized by the National Space Institute at Technical University of Denmark, the Danish Meteorological Institute and the Greenland Climate Center.

Generally yes, but there has been a lot of new information learned since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (e.g., on trends in hurricane intensity, the accelerated melting back of Arctic sea ice, the intensifying deterioration of the edges of the Greenland Ice Sheet, etc.) and Gore's presentation of the science has been updated to account for these, drawing from what are the really highly reviewed and high quality papers by leading scientisice, the intensifying deterioration of the edges of the Greenland Ice Sheet, etc.) and Gore's presentation of the science has been updated to account for these, drawing from what are the really highly reviewed and high quality papers by leading scientisIce Sheet, etc.) and Gore's presentation of the science has been updated to account for these, drawing from what are the really highly reviewed and high quality papers by leading scientists.

More importantly, we must wonder what the satellites would have observed happening in the Antarctic when Roald Amundsen sailed through the Arctic in 1903 - 1905 on the small wooden ship Gjøa when the Northwest Passage was open to sailing vessels, and again in 1940 - 42 and 1944 (St. Roch), it is possible the reduction in Arctic ice is not an indicator of warming, since it was balanced by record high Antarctic ice levels and a rising trend line for the data set since 1979.

Statistical studies have debated the correlation between retreating Arctic ice and the negative NAO because it generates a confounding short term warming trend that is contradicted by the longer cooling trend suggested for the LIA as well as observed during the 1960s and 70s.

One passage written by Heartland reads, «Scientists who study the issue say it is impossible to tell if the recent small warming trend is natural, a continuation of the planet's recovery from the more recent «Little Ice Age,» or unnatural, the result of human greenhouse gas emissions.»