Sentences with phrase «ice trends last»
In fact, as I proposed in my overview of ice trends last October, the system up there may be becoming more like the sea ice around Antarctica, which flashes into existence each austral winter and then all disappears each southern summer.
https://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/ Not exact matches
Scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), University College London, University of New Hampshire and University of Washington analyzed 300 summer Arctic sea ice forecasts from 2008 to 2013 and found that forecasts are quite accurate when sea ice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic sea ice for the last 30 yeaIce Data Center (NSIDC), University College London, University of New Hampshire and University of Washington analyzed 300 summer Arctic sea ice forecasts from 2008 to 2013 and found that forecasts are quite accurate when sea ice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic sea ice for the last 30 yeaice forecasts from 2008 to 2013 and found that forecasts are quite accurate when sea ice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic sea ice for the last 30 yeaice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic sea ice for the last 30 yeaice for the last 30 years.
«It does show that what has happened in the last 30 years — a warming trend — puts us outside of all but the most extreme single years every 500 years since the Ice Age.
«There's a lot of year - to - year variability in both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, but overall, until last year, the trends in the Antarctic for every single month were toward more sea ice,» said Claire Parkinson, a senior sea ice researcher at Goddard.
«The study reinforces the idea that looking at Arctic and Antarctic ice separately is the best way to understand decadal and long - term trends, because it suggests significant decadal and inter-decadal variability in southern hemisphere ice extent going back much further than the last 30 years.»
The findings suggest that Antarctic sea ice has fluctuated substantially through the last century, rather than experiencing the sort of steady trend seen in the Arctic over many decades.
Neff also noted that most of the ice cores were collected in the last 20 years, meaning trends can not be analyzed up to present day, when we'd expect the imprint of climate change to become most obvious.
So it seems you have a very conservative estimate from the CMIP ensembles, which are known to suffer from various weaknesses wrt sea ice, and which certainly don't capture the trends over the last decade or so.
The NPS model indicates an accelerated thinning trend in Arctic sea ice during the last decade.
[Aug. 9, 8:04 p.m. Updated Joe Romm has predictably assailed my view of Arctic sea ice trends and their implications, straying into discussions of melting permafrost (which is an entirely different issue laden with its own questions — one being why the last big retreat of permafrost, in the Holocene's warmest stretch, didn't have a greenhouse - gas impact) and my refusal to proclaim a magically safe level of carbon dioxide (which I discuss here).
[Andy Revkin — On Arctic ice trends, I have a post coming shortly on the latest update from the world's leading teams of sea ice experts, showing this year's retreat is unlikely to match last year's, while the long - term trend is still heading toward ever less summer ice.
You can make your own list, I am sure — the retreat of the Arctic ice last summer, Greenland melt, trends in Atlantic hurricanes over the past 20 years, etc..
But all of the 15 teams offering projections say ice extent will remain well below the average for the last quarter century and a downward trend in summer ice around the North Pole has not abated.
But, he also says: «teams offering projections say ice extent will remain well below the average for the last quarter century and a downward trend in summer ice around the North Pole has not abated,» and we readers are then linked to his October, 2007 article and an August, 2007 image of a «warmed over» Artic.
Joe Romm has predictably assailed my rejection of his «death spiral» depiction of Arctic sea ice trends, straying into discussions of melting permafrost (which is an entirely different issue laden with its own questions — one being why the last big retreat of permafrost, in the Holocene's warmest stretch, didn't have a greenhouse - gas impact) and my refusal to proclaim a magically safe level of carbon dioxide (which I discuss here).
iheartheidicullen @ 162: Sorry if my tone was intemperate, but really the SH and NH sea ice trends have been analysed at length online by Tamino and others, over the last year or two, with the clear conclusion that the SH anomaly trend is small (the anomaly at the maximum last year was about 1.5 % of the mean annual maximum, if I remember correctly) and not statistically significant (at the 95 % level, I think), whereas the NH trend is large (tens of percent), long - lived, and statistically very significant indeed.
Just as importantly, he says, the model helps to explain regional trends that seem to defy the global warming hiatus, including record - breaking heat in the United States last year, and the continued decline of Arctic sea ice.
If current trends continue, the Arctic will be ice - free at 12; 39 PM on December 14 — with temperatures of -30 C. Ocean and Ice Services Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut Remember last week, when Arctic experts were certain that winter - like storms would... Continue readinice - free at 12; 39 PM on December 14 — with temperatures of -30 C. Ocean and Ice Services Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut Remember last week, when Arctic experts were certain that winter - like storms would... Continue readinIce Services Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut Remember last week, when Arctic experts were certain that winter - like storms would... Continue reading →
This model has been proven skillful in reproducing the monthly arctic (and Antarctic) sea ice extent anomalies over the last 30 years, as well as the observed long - term downward trend.
«The global temperature has been rising at a steady trend rate of 0.5 °C per century since the end of the little ice age in the 1700s (when the Thames River would freeze over every winter; the last time it froze over was 1804)...
Argus, you commented that the antarctic has only had low sea ice last year in 2017, and this doesn't constitute a trend.
This despite a cooling trend over the last three millennia, if the Greenland ice cores are accurate.
By looking closely at this chart you can see that temperatures increased rapidly after the last ice age and then leveled off to a moderate increase before starting a downward trend about 6000 years ago.
-- The third, being the observed destabilization of the geosphere due to both the pace of terrestrial ice loss and relatively sudden and uneven climatic redistribution of the oceans» mass, with a consequent rise in seismic events and in volcanoes» cooling sulphate emissions, which have (according to Prof. McGuire, adviser to Munich Re on vulcanism risks) accelerated slowly on a 1.25 % / yr trend over the last 30 years.
There hasn't been a millennial warming trend since the one at the beginning of the Holocene that got us out of the last Ice Age.
But if we start taking our averages from the end of the last ice age their has been a warming trend.
Not only does this low - pressure area, or cyclone, look bigger, more intense and longer - lasting than the one from last year, the ice also seems to be in a weaker state than ever, as evidenced by the fact that 2012 trend lines on both sea ice area and sea ice extent graphs track lower than previous record years, despite weather that until recently would completely stall the decline.
YES — CO2 HAS BEEN ON AN UPWARD CLIMB, to levels above those seen for the last few ice ages (with the proviso that ice cores records have poorer resolution the further back in time one goes; there may have been short - lived CO2 spikes that we can not see); is all of that human - driven, or is there a natural warming trend driving the release of biotic CO2?
We emerged from the last ice age about 10 000 years ago, and the global temperature trend has been downward for the last 8000 years.
The pattern of temperatures shows a rise as the world emerged from the last deglaciation, warm conditions until the middle of the Holocene, and a cooling trend over the next 5000 years that culminated around 200 years ago in the Little Ice Age.
According to an international research group investigating Greenland melting that last event led to an accelerated bedrock rise — on top of the existing trend, as the ice sheet grows (slightly) lighter year by year and therefore exerts ever less pressure on the Earth's crust.
It could even go as low as 50 % FIRST the synchronized lunar and planet cycles will both be descending down to the driest part of their cycles in 2019/20 (this only occurs once every 297 years in Australia) SECOND Antarctic sea ice extent has been trending up to now be at record high levels for the last 34 years.
«It does show that what has happened in the last 30 years — a warming trend — puts us outside of all but the most extreme single years every 500 years since the Ice Age.
The oceans have risen by around 2.5 cm over the last decade, emphasising just how warm the seas and the atmosphere have become already As ice caps glaciers and sea ice show us the trend in rather obvious ways, scientists studying the phenomena have been shocked.
My point being that the Last major Ice Age ended only 10 - 15,000 years ago and we have had major cycles of climate change which trend towards a warmer climate.
The tipping point from the melting trend to the freezing trend was last year, before the last winter's tremendous ice maximum.
and the overall ice mass of the planet — if you take the Arctic, Greenland, and the Antarctic together — has shown no trend whatsoever, up or down in the last 50 years since we have been keeping detailed records.
Responding to and in the manner of KK Tung's UPDATE (and, you can quote me): globally speaking the slowing of the rapidity of the warming, were it absent an enhanced hiatus compared to prior hiatuses, must at the least be interpreted as nothing more than a slowdown of the positive trend of uninterrupted global warming coming out of the Little Ice Age that has been «juiced» by AGW as evidenced by rapid warming during the last three decades of the 20th Century, irrespective of the fact that, «the modern Grand maximum (which occurred during solar cycles 19 — 23, i.e., 1950 - 2009),» according to Ilya Usoskin, «was a rare or even unique event, in both magnitude and duration, in the past three millennia [that's, 3,000 years].»
A look at the trend over the last 30 years shows an acceleration of the decline in Arctic Sea Ice extent.
Ice core data supports the general cooling trend in case of the last 2000 years, but the hockey stick shape is missing again: http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/histo4.png
In fact, the sea ice gains in Antarctica have perhaps modestly superseded the losses in the Arctic, resulting in a very slight increasing overall trend in global - scale sea ice during the last 10 years:
The freeze date for lakes and rivers in the Northern Hemisphere has moved later in the year, at an average rate of six days per 100 years, while the ice break - up date has moved up earlier in the year, at an average rate of a little more than six days over the last 100 years.6 Smaller lakes in North American show a uniform trend toward earlier ice break - up, up to 13 days early.7
Arctic ice reached a larger maximum area this winter than in the last few years, scientists say, but the long - term trend still shows it declining.
Last month, Maslowski emailed me «the sea ice behaviour during the 2009 — 2011 does not provide arguments to change this projection based on volume trend.»
trends since the last Ice Age (discounting the Hockey Stick and all its brethren, of course).
Indeed the last five years include the five lowest sea ice extents since records began in 1979, and much of that trend has been caused by global warming, says NASA Cryosphere Program manager Tom Wagner in his video interpretation of the 2011 sea ice record (43 MB MPEG - 4).
If we look at the data of seasonal variation of sea ice year by year at Arctic [North Pole] and Antarctic [South Pole] the year to year variations of seasonal trends are above the average at Antarctica and below the average at Arctic in the last decade.
I produced data from ice core analysis showing trends lasting tens of thousands of years.
And since we have had rising sea level over last couple centuries, and this generally indicates warming global ocean volume, I expect this trend to continue for the next century [most likely] and due to warming oceans continuation of tread of less polar sea ice.
Higher levels of sea salts favor reduction processes and thus GEM destruction in the snow interstitial air (30), but no long - term trends have been reported for sea salt impurities deposited on the Greenland ice sheet during the last century (33).