Sea ice is biased low in the Canadian Arctic, which makes it difficult to assess the realism of long - term sea -
ice trends there.
Not exact matches
With documented warmer air temperatures in eastern Canada since the 1970s,
there has been a
trend of earlier
ice melting and less
ice in general, explained Lavery.
«
There's a lot of year - to - year variability in both Arctic and Antarctic sea
ice, but overall, until last year, the
trends in the Antarctic for every single month were toward more sea
ice,» said Claire Parkinson, a senior sea
ice researcher at Goddard.
Even so much that
there is a cooling temperature
trend in winter, large enough to refreeze almost all
ice that was melted in the other seasons.
The cause of this relatively short lived cooling (it was not a true «
ice age») is not fully known, but the sun could have been cooler,
there may have been more volcanic eruptions,
there is a small but persistent cooling
trend due to orbital cycles (as explained above).
According to George Leskevich, a physical research scientist with the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in Ann Arbor, Mich.,
there is also a long - term downward
trend in Great Lakes wintertime
ice cover, although
there is considerable year - to - year variability.
On the Torne River,
there was a corresponding
trend for earlier
ice break - up in the spring, as the rate with which the river moved toward earlier thaw dates doubled.
In addition to body changes, drastically less free time and money to spend on shopping, curating clothes, and paying attention to fashion
trends, and increased likelihood of kid staining, stretching clothes,
theres also the fact that you basically put your entire wardrobe on
ice for a year or more due to pregnancy and nursing, so it doesn't really get the gradual updating over time that people normally do, so the little wardrobe details like how pants or sweaters fit or which boots you have will just be a little more behind the fashion curve.
Continuing a
trend that started with the transition from Honeycomb to
Ice Cream Sandwich,
there's a bit less neon blue throughout the OS.
Although
there is still definitely a declining
trend in Arctic sea
ice (2009 and 2008 were still the second and third lowest sea
ice extents, after 2007)
there was a lot of hype surrounding the 2007 minimum even though that was partly just natural variability in the Arctic climate.
Some areas, such as the Antarctic peninsula and the West Antarctic
ice sheet are losing mass, consistent with temperature
trends there.
There is no
trend in net mass of
ice transported through the Fram Strait.
Quite a contrast to notable skeptics such as Joe Bastardi, who continues to suggest that the current downward
trend in Arctic sea
ice is simple cyclical thing and that
there is no
ice - free Arctic anywhere in our future whether it be 40 years or 240 years.
Those who think that
there's nothing to worry about, because sea
ice might recover on its own accord, are requiring some negative forcing or feedback effect to come into play, to make the PIOMAS
trend line do a U-turn.
There is a difference between peaks and valleys in noisy processes (1998 surface air temperature, 2007 record minimum
ice, or shipping at a few small areas on the edges of the Arctic ocean) and CO2 forcing driven
trends, especially when different measures.
Arctic researchers caution that
there is something of a paradox in Arctic
trends: while the long - term fate of the region may be mostly sealed, no one should presume that the recent sharp warming and seasonal
ice retreats that have caught the world's attention will continue smoothly into the future.
Although a recent downward
trend in coverage is clearly visible by naked eye inspection, Goddard invites us to believe
there has ``... been no net gain or loss of polar sea
ice since records began.»
The cause of this relatively short lived cooling (it was not a true «
ice age») is not fully known, but the sun could have been cooler,
there may have been more volcanic eruptions,
there is a small but persistent cooling
trend due to orbital cycles (as explained above).
Although
there is still some disagreement in the preliminary results (eg the description of polar
ice caps), a lot of things appear to be quite robust as the climate models for instance indicate consistent patterns of surface warming and rainfall
trends: the models tend to agree on a stronger warming in the Arctic and stronger precipitation changes in the Topics (see crude examples for the SRES A1b scenarios given in Figures 1 & 2; Note, the degrees of freedom varies with latitude, so that the uncertainty of these estimates are greater near the poles).
There has been a slight increase in such «multi-year
ice» since 2008, the scientists report, but it's too soon to conclude that the decades - long
trend toward thinner and less extensive
ice is slowing.
In fact, as I proposed in my overview of
ice trends last October, the system up
there may be becoming more like the sea
ice around Antarctica, which flashes into existence each austral winter and then all disappears each southern summer.
Even so much that
there is a cooling temperature
trend in winter, large enough to refreeze almost all
ice that was melted in the other seasons.
One commentator on twitter made a point of picking out Lake Minnetonka, and noting that the earliest
ice out date on record was in 1878, as if that negated any of the long term
trends there or elsewhere.
There are certainly better indicators of global warming
trends —
ice sheet volume, sea
ice extent and sea surface temperatures all come to mind — but hurricanes get people's attention.
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global
trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while sea
ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but
there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when
ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
Updated, July 23, 1:40 p.m. A new study of methods used to track Antarctic sea
ice trends has raised important questions about whether recent increases in
ice there are, to a significant extent, an illusion created by flawed analysis of data collected by a series of satellites.
Some commentators have made much of longer - term
trends in
ice thickness, but
there, too, winds and patterns of atmospheric pressure have played a powerful role over longer time spans.
While sea
ice in the Arctic grows and shrinks with the seasons,
there is an overall declining
trend, as north pole has warmed roughly twice as fast as the global average.
Generally yes, but
there has been a lot of new information learned since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (e.g., on
trends in hurricane intensity, the accelerated melting back of Arctic sea
ice, the intensifying deterioration of the edges of the Greenland Ice Sheet, etc.) and Gore's presentation of the science has been updated to account for these, drawing from what are the really highly reviewed and high quality papers by leading scientis
ice, the intensifying deterioration of the edges of the Greenland
Ice Sheet, etc.) and Gore's presentation of the science has been updated to account for these, drawing from what are the really highly reviewed and high quality papers by leading scientis
Ice Sheet, etc.) and Gore's presentation of the science has been updated to account for these, drawing from what are the really highly reviewed and high quality papers by leading scientists.
Figure 3 (Data sources here and here)
There is a secular warming
trend that has persisted since the end of the Little
Ice Age in the 19th century.
The notion that I should be worried that
there's a little less
ice than
there used to be, when this appears to be entirely consistent with a long - term
trend that has nothing whatever to do with me is bizarre.
There's been an underlying warming
trend since the end of the Little
Ice Age.
But, on top of that
there has been a
trend downward, such that year by year we see less
ice all the time.
Nor is
there a mention of the fact that according to the most recent research,
there has been no
trend in sea
ice conditions since 2001.
«
There's no doubt these
ice shelves are disappearing because of this warming
trend,» said Dr. Rignot of NASA.
It is that whilst
there is
ice to melt, temperature of either air or water in that region will NOT show any particular
trend.
Ignoring the weakness of such anecdotal arguments, the fact is that the Antarctic has shown very little
trend so the claim that sea
ice there has not changed much does not really contribute anything.
As of this writing,
there is observational and modeling evidence that: 1) both annular modes are sensitive to month - to - month and year - to - year variability in the stratospheric flow (see section on Stratosphere / troposphere coupling, below); 2) both annular modes have exhibited long term
trends which may reflect the impact of stratospheric ozone depletion and / or increased greenhouse gases (see section on Climate Change, below); and 3) the NAM responds to changes in the distribution of sea -
ice over the North Atlantic sector.
There hasn't been a millennial warming
trend since the one at the beginning of the Holocene that got us out of the last
Ice Age.
There has been a long - term downward
trend in summer global sea
ice extent, though the
trend is less clear in the winter, reflecting the fact that the Arctic shows a clearer long - term
trend than the Antarctic.
These regional
trends together yield a small increase, so studying each region will help scientists get a better grasp on the processes affecting sea
ice there.
Isn't increased
ice melt essentially an indication of increased energy in the whole Earth system (and assuming that it doesn't correlate with increased solar radiation or increased loss of energy away from the whole Earth system, wouldn't that be a result of increased ACO2 regardless of the
trend of global surface temperatures — assuming that
there is no corresponding drop in surface temperatures?)
ie, a look at the actual temperature in the central england data set from the 1600's, would give a null hypothesis for any significant observable human AGW signature (ie a low % of AGW) as
there only appear to be a gradual warming
trend from a period known as the «little
ice age».
However
there is some important information that needs to be presented related to the global
trend of sea
ice as measured by satellite since 1979.
The Barents sea
ice looks like it switched from a high
ice mode to a low
ice mode in 2005 and
there isn't much of a
trend to speak of.
But with our carbon emissions we have not only reversed that
trend, but will likely continue to warm the planet until well past the point at which
there is no Arctic sea
ice within the next few decades.
Is
there a reason why a linear
trend is shown for the NH sea
ice extent, where a second order polynomial fit trend is shown on the Arctic Sea Ice Escalator graph
ice extent, where a second order polynomial fit
trend is shown on the Arctic Sea
Ice Escalator graph
Ice Escalator graphic?
THERE HAS BEEN A WARMING
TREND FROM THE 70s THRU THE LATE 90s,... accompanied by other changes tied to a warming trend (record low arctic sea ice extent & thickness, retreating glaciers, retreating snow lines, warming ocean surface temps, increases in sea height, de-alkalinizing oce
TREND FROM THE 70s THRU THE LATE 90s,... accompanied by other changes tied to a warming
trend (record low arctic sea ice extent & thickness, retreating glaciers, retreating snow lines, warming ocean surface temps, increases in sea height, de-alkalinizing oce
trend (record low arctic sea
ice extent & thickness, retreating glaciers, retreating snow lines, warming ocean surface temps, increases in sea height, de-alkalinizing oceans).
YES — CO2 HAS BEEN ON AN UPWARD CLIMB, to levels above those seen for the last few
ice ages (with the proviso that
ice cores records have poorer resolution the further back in time one goes;
there may have been short - lived CO2 spikes that we can not see); is all of that human - driven, or is
there a natural warming
trend driving the release of biotic CO2?
But
there is so much we can't yet know — including exactly how strong each of these
trends will become as
ice loss continues, and how these and other developments will interact.