As Arctic
ice volume loss, in essence, bottoms out later this decade, will global temperature rise resume «with a vengeance»?
- What percentage of Arctic sea ice loss /
ice volume loss is attributable to warm currents entering, apparently for the first time, a decade or so ago into the Arctic?
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/musings-on-models.html The Spring volume loss in 2010 does seem to be associated with a persistent pattern of high pressure, which doesn't seem to be the Arctic Dipole (NCEP / NCAR), so as yet I haven't figured out how this caused
the ice volume loss reported by PIOMAS.
Perhaps this mechanism contributes to acceleration in
ice volume loss between 1979 and the present.
From historic droughts around the world and in places like California, Syria, Brazil and Iran to inexorably increasing glacial melt; from an expanding blight of fish killing and water poisoning algae blooms in lakes, rivers and oceans to a growing rash of global record rainfall events; and from record Arctic sea
ice volume losses approaching 80 percent at the end of the summer of 2012 to a rapidly thawing permafrost zone explosively emitting an ever - increasing amount of methane and CO2, it's already a disastrous train - wreck.
Not exact matches
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In particular, the study noted
volume loss at the Totten and Moscow University
ice shelves, which help buttress a large section of the EAIS.
But the story in East Antarctica is still murky, they report; although the
volume of its
ice shelves has fluctuated significantly, they found no clear trend of
volume loss during that time period.
From 1994 to 2003, the overall
loss of
ice shelf
volume across the continent was negligible: about 25 cubic kilometers per year (plus or minus 64).
Scientific observations show that in the Arctic, warming temperatures have led to a 75 %
loss in sea
ice volume since the 1980s, and recent reports suggest the Arctic Ocean will be nearly free of summer sea
ice by 2050, said Sullivan.
At the end of this summer, only a quarter of the Arctic Ocean was still covered in
ice, a record low in modern times, and the total
volume of
ice was just a fifth of what it was three decades ago (see «Record Arctic
ice loss»).
I encountered the first from comments made by scientist Laurie Padman, a co-author of another paper titled «
Volume loss from Antarctic
ice shelves is accelerating.»
Other researchers look at raised beaches [32] and palaeo lakes to record previous rates of isostatic uplift and rates of sea level rise [33, 34]; this can help constrain previous
ice volumes and rates of
ice loss.
So if the margin was lost without
ice loss at the center, the new margin having lost its support would become very unstable and the whole
ice sheet would to have to lose
volume to establish a new equilibrium.
Worldwide, small
ice caps and glaciers have reacted particularly dynamically to worldwide increases in temperatures9 - 11, and it has been proposed that the
volume loss from mountain glaciers and
ice caps like these is the main contributor to recent global sea - level rise12.
How large of a role has ocean warming been playing in the rapid
loss of sea
ice volume there?
But which variable — proportion of total
ice, or
volume loss — is really the independent one?
So unless the perimeter of the Greenland
ice sheet is the exact same thickness as the entire
ice sheet (say 3 km on average), an area
loss there, of 15 %, will produce a much smaller %
volume loss, than say if this area
loss were smack dab in the middle of the Greenland
ice sheet.
(I take it this expresses the relation between
volume loss and total
ice you are thinking about.)
Global climate model projections (in CMIP3 at least) appear to underestimate sea
ice extent
losses with respect to observations, though this is not universally true for all models and some of them actually have ensemble spreads that are compatible with PIOMAS
ice volume estimates and satellite observations of sea
ice extent.
Ice volume, the product of sea ice area and thickness, is a measure for the total loss in sea ice and the total amount of energy involved in melting the i
Ice volume, the product of sea
ice area and thickness, is a measure for the total loss in sea ice and the total amount of energy involved in melting the i
ice area and thickness, is a measure for the total
loss in sea
ice and the total amount of energy involved in melting the i
ice and the total amount of energy involved in melting the
iceice.
Our Tietsche, et al., 2011 paper basically shows that both extent and
volume can recover on similar time scales after extreme
loss events, in particular for the thin
ice that we have around nowadays.
It seems that the near - zero replenishment of the MY
ice cover after the summers of 2005 and 2007, an imbalance in the cycle of replenishment and
ice export, has played a significant role in the
loss of Arctic sea
ice volume over the ICESat record.
Average winter sea
ice volume over the period, weighted by a
loss of ∼ 3000 km3 between 2007 and 2008, was ∼ 14,000 km3.
The net
loss in
volume and hence sea level contribution of the Greenland
Ice Sheet (GIS) has doubled in recent years from 90 to 220 cubic kilometers / year has been noted recently (Rignot and Kanagaratnam, 2007).
Maslowski has stated resolution is a major factor in the «early
ice free» implications of
volume loss.
So how much do changes in the Arctic atmosphere play a role in the
loss of sea -
ice volume and the apparent failure of the GCMs to reflect the current
volume loss?
However if we have a similar profile of
volume loss as in the preceding two years then random variability looks very unlikely and I'll be veering to the following viewpoint — that something new and radical has happened in the seasonal cycle of sea -
ice loss, a new factor that in principle could have the power to make a virtually sea
ice free state in September plausible this decade.
The
ice loss amounts to a freshwater
volume which should have made an important contribution to the observed decrease in salinity in the northern Atlantic — probably including the «great salinity anomaly» of the 1970s, famous amongst oceanographers.
jetfuel, setting aside the different effects of
ice in different locations outlined by scaddenp... you are also comparing the antarctic annual
volume loss rate to (vague generalizations of) the Canadian annual
volume maximum.
Although that's really all that needs be said, I should add that jetfuel is trying to compare cumulative year - over-year land
ice mass
loss in Antarctica with (cyclical) seasonal river / lake
ice volume gain in Canada - and ignoring the inevitable melt - away of the latter.
In any case, any changes in average
volume over the course of the year have been minimal compared to the Antarctic
ice loss.
Previous studies of the Antarctic
ice sheet used satellite data to measure the
volume of
ice loss.
The divergence in timing of sea
ice loss between models and data — decades as represented by
ice volume in Figure 3 — is physically irreconcilable.
«Thinning and
Volume Loss of the Arctic Ocean Sea
Ice Cover: 2003 - 2008.»
The expected increase in Antarctic snowfall with warming could explain
ice volume growth, but it is fair to assume that
ice loss processes prevail in warmer climates (11).
The
volume of the
ice lost is much less than that from the
loss of a comparable area by Jakobshavn because the
ice is an order of magnitude thinner.
Sorry — there is a fairly basic approximate
volume calculation and a broad estimate of current
ice sheet (not glacier)
losses.
The fact that a great deal of the melt in Arctic sea
ice is affected by the accumulating heat in the oceans and the fact that energy is advected to the Arctic via the oceans in much larger amounts than via the atmosphere and the extreme
loss we've seen in Arctic sea
ice volume as a result means nothing to the «skeptics».
It sounds like you have no clue about the details of sea
ice loss over the past few decades, nor the most critical of all the metrics — see
ice volume, which is directly impacted by the warmth of both the ocean water as well as the atmosphere.
You wrote - «The fact that a great deal of the melt in Arctic sea
ice is affected by the accumulating heat in the oceans and the fact that energy is advected to the Arctic via the oceans in much larger amounts than via the atmosphere and the extreme
loss we've seen in Arctic sea
ice volume as a result means nothing to the «skeptics».»
Regionally, it can help delay sea
ice loss, but on a pan-arctic scale it enhances overall
ice melt and
ice volume reduction, as these old floes melt faster at lower latitudes.
If you look at yearly
volume loss - 100 %
loss results in an
ice free Arctic - you'll see the accelerating nature of this development:
Eurasia's GPP declined with wNA forest
loss due to cooling temperatures increasing soil
ice volume.
So I wonder since it is all quiet about this year's
ice volumes that possibly the avg arctic
ice volume has recovered most of the 5500 gigatonnes of avg
loss since 1979.
Starting with the April Pan-Arctic
Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) volume distribution and the April National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) average ice extent the estimated extent loss for each 10 cm thickness of ice loss is calculat
Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS)
volume distribution and the April National Snow and
Ice Data Center (NSIDC) average ice extent the estimated extent loss for each 10 cm thickness of ice loss is calculat
Ice Data Center (NSIDC) average
ice extent the estimated extent loss for each 10 cm thickness of ice loss is calculat
ice extent the estimated extent
loss for each 10 cm thickness of
ice loss is calculat
ice loss is calculated.
Reynolds, 5.15 (± 0.64), Statistical (same as June) The long - term
loss of extent in summer is largely driven by
volume decline of
ice in the Arctic Ocean mediated by the resulting increase in open water formation efficiency.
Tied for fourth lowest sea
ice extent, in a three - way tie for lowest sea
ice volume, the fastest one month sea
ice loss for the date, and unusual Arctic cyclone activity affecting the decayed
ice of the polar regions, focus just on the lake too trivializes what's happening in a region the size of the Arctic Ocean.
We use realistic estimates of mass redistribution from
ice mass
loss and land water storage to quantify the resulting ocean bottom deformation and its effect on global and regional ocean
volume change estimates.
Loss of glacial volume in Alaska and neighboring British Columbia, Canada, currently contributes 20 % to 30 % as much surplus freshwater to the oceans as does the Greenland Ice Sheet — about 40 to 70 gigatons per year, 66,78,63,57,64,58 comparable to 10 % of the annual discharge of the Mississippi River.79 Glaciers continue to respond to climate warming for years to decades after warming ceases, so ice loss is expected to continue, even if air temperatures were to remain at current lev
Loss of glacial
volume in Alaska and neighboring British Columbia, Canada, currently contributes 20 % to 30 % as much surplus freshwater to the oceans as does the Greenland
Ice Sheet — about 40 to 70 gigatons per year, 66,78,63,57,64,58 comparable to 10 % of the annual discharge of the Mississippi River.79 Glaciers continue to respond to climate warming for years to decades after warming ceases, so ice loss is expected to continue, even if air temperatures were to remain at current leve
Ice Sheet — about 40 to 70 gigatons per year, 66,78,63,57,64,58 comparable to 10 % of the annual discharge of the Mississippi River.79 Glaciers continue to respond to climate warming for years to decades after warming ceases, so
ice loss is expected to continue, even if air temperatures were to remain at current leve
ice loss is expected to continue, even if air temperatures were to remain at current lev
loss is expected to continue, even if air temperatures were to remain at current levels.