This can cause data estimates to snowball, and it might account for the apparent accellerating decline of
the ice volume time series.
With error bars provided, we can use the PIOMAS
ice volume time series as a proxy record for reality and compare it against sea - ice simulations in global climate models.
Not exact matches
for example... you can go back in
ice core samples as far as 800,000 years, and still locked in the
ice is a tiny amount of the atmoshpere from that
time, telliing us
volumes of information.
And with so many names ahead of him, if he DOES get
ice time without major injuries to the current AHL guys, I think that's going to speak
volumes about the kid.
But the story in East Antarctica is still murky, they report; although the
volume of its
ice shelves has fluctuated significantly, they found no clear trend of
volume loss during that
time period.
Scientists have examined
ice cores dating back some 800,000 years and have documented numerous
times when increases in summer insolation took place, but not all of them resulted in deglaciation to present - day
ice volumes.
However, Pluto's basin is significantly larger than the
volume of
ice it contains today, suggesting that Pluto's heart has been slowly losing mass over
time, almost as if it was wasting away.
At the end of this summer, only a quarter of the Arctic Ocean was still covered in
ice, a record low in modern
times, and the total
volume of
ice was just a fifth of what it was three decades ago (see «Record Arctic
ice loss»).
«Conversely, there is more and better evidence across Iceland that when the
ice sheet underwent major reduction at the end of the last glacial period, there was a large increase in both the frequency and
volume of basalt erupted — with some estimates being 30
times higher than the present day.
According to the latest Piomas data, a combination of the smallest sea
ice extent and the second - thinnest
ice cover on record puts total
volume of sea
ice in November 2016 at a record low for this
time of year.
Kevin, the real reason that sea
ice volume will likely not reach zero any
time soon is that calving from Greenland and from the Canadian archipelago will continue and will likely increase.
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Volume One
Meanwhile, in the Arctic, sea
ice volume is at a record low for the
time of year according to PIOMAS.
PIOMAS has been used in a wide range of applications but arguably the most popular product has been the
time series of total Arctic sea
ice volume which we have been putting out since March 2010 (see also Fig 1).
With only 30 + year
time series of sea
ice extent or
volume, this is something difficult to do so we have to strive to construct longer
time series that allow an assessment of natural variability at those
times scales.
Based on their choice of
time - shift rather than
volume shift to «correct» the models, I'd suspect that an assumption of lingering
ice is built into the models.
It should be noted that there is such a mismatch between the
ice volume shown in the lower curve in fig. 1 and that shown in fig. 4 that is seems unlikely that they represent the same
time period.
It would be interesting to compare the numbers, if any, for
volume and
time span of an
ice sheet failure (are there any for how fast it could happen)?
If the authors had adopted a
volume shift rather than a
time - shift, the models would predict zero
ice volume around 2060.
The thermal inertia of the thousands of meter thick Greenland
Ice sheet makes its integrative
time constant even longer (> 20x
volume, > 1000x thermal path length, nonlinear function due to rate dependencies).
Our Tietsche, et al., 2011 paper basically shows that both extent and
volume can recover on similar
time scales after extreme loss events, in particular for the thin
ice that we have around nowadays.
I looked up your paper (Rammstorf, 1995) and you write «If a freshwater flux of 0.06 Sv were to be obtained only by melting sea
ice, the entire sea
ice volume (2 — 3 * 10 ^ 13 m ^ 3) would need to melt during a period of 10 to 15 years, a
time span too short to cause an advective spin - down of the circulation.»
Its not too short a
time, Arctic sea
ice volume is like a giant mercury thermometer to all parameters used to measure global warming.
It looks like the variable is constructed by starting with prior period values and adjusing them (this could be for only one element of the
ice volume estimation), rather than taking independent measurements each
time.
He said weather scientists have known there was a relationship between
ice and lightning, but were learning new details by studying the National Aeronautics and Space Administration satellite images which can look at both the number of lightning strikes and the
volume of
ice in a cloud at the same
time.
So that, while the surface area may be greater this year compared with last year, the
volume of
ice in the Arctic this year is probably already less than at the same
time last year.
Ice volume should lag temperature by about 10,000 years, due to the relatively long time period required to grow or shrink ice shee
Ice volume should lag temperature by about 10,000 years, due to the relatively long
time period required to grow or shrink
ice shee
ice sheets.
Thus, both CO2 and
ice volume should lag temperature somewhat, depending on the characteristic response
times of these different components of the climate system.
On decadal and longer
time scales, global mean sea level change results from two major processes, mostly related to recent climate change, that alter the
volume of water in the global ocean: i) thermal expansion (Section 5.5.3), and ii) the exchange of water between oceans and other reservoirs (glaciers and
ice caps,
ice sheets, other land water reservoirs - including through anthropogenic change in land hydrology, and the atmosphere; Section 5.5.5).
The divergence in
timing of sea
ice loss between models and data — decades as represented by
ice volume in Figure 3 — is physically irreconcilable.
As the oceans stay warm for some
time to come, I will watch the snow fall and the
ice volume build and the oceans drop, getting ready for the next
ice advance that will cool earth into the next cold period, that always follows every warm period.
The
volume of
ice in the Arctic is less than it has been at any
time during the history of mankind.
Then in 2003 the launch of two new satellites, ICESat and GRACE, led to vast improvements in one of the methods for mass balance determination,
volume change, and introduced the ability to conduct gravimetric measurements of
ice sheet mass over
time.
Using a large
volume of 126 proxy temperature records from the Northern Hemisphere, they found (1) a clearly discernible Medieval Warm Period (MWP)(950-1150) and Little
Ice Age (LIA)(1450 - 1850), (2) «likely unprecedented» modern temperatures (relative to the last 1,000 years), as well as a (3) «significant» link between the high temperatures of the MWP and recent
times and the high solar activity that characterized both periods (the Medieval Maximum and the Modern Grand Maximum).
Its estimated
ice volume and contribution to mean global sea level reside well within their ranges of natural variability, and from the current looks of things, they are not likely to depart from those ranges any
time soon.
Nevertheless, these rates concern
times with much greater
ice volume than today, and with intense global climate fluctuations.
- What percentage of Arctic sea
ice loss /
ice volume loss is attributable to warm currents entering, apparently for the first
time, a decade or so ago into the Arctic?
(d, e) Total area of Arctic sea
ice and AMOC
volume transport as a function of
time in the CTL, LW, and SW experiments.
Further: We calculate Arctic sea
ice thickness and
volume values from the standard, publically available CryoSat data as well as from near real
time (NRT) CryoSat data provided directly to us from the European Space Agency.
«
Time periods with less than twice the modern global
ice volume show almost no indications of sea level rise faster than about 2 metres per century,» said Dr Grant.
Arctic Sea
Ice Volume Model from the University of Washington (Note: this is only updated monthly, and is a model output, not a real -
time observation, details here)
Though the Tibetan earthquake was going to happen at some
time, it is possible that changes in
ice loading on Himalayan glaciers, changes in water
volume outflows in the annual Asian monsoon, and sea level rise adding pressure to the geological plates below coastlines — especially in low - lying Bangladesh — had an impact.
This
volume is about 500
times the freshwater flux from Alaska's Russell Fjord over a five - month period — but then the reservoir capacity of the east Greenland fjord system at 70 - 77 ° N is also extraordinary and
ice dams can span multiple years.
Uncertainties in the
timing of
ice - margin retreat and global
ice -
volume change allow a variety of plausible deglaciation triggers.
Lett., 2006, 33, L24703, doi: 10.1029 / 2006GL027817 compares the
time derivative of the
ice volume dV / dt and the 65 ° N insolation; the match is very good except at the onset of deglaciations.
As water vapour occupies about 1000
times the
volume of the water /
ice it comes from that has the possibility to create very large forces (witness old
time condensing steam engines).
John Imbrie used
time - series analysis to statistically compare the
timing and cycles in the sea surface temperature and global
ice volume records with patterns of the Earth's orbit.
Our simple scaling approximation implicitly assumes that
ice sheets are sufficiently responsive to climate change that hysteresis is not a dominant effect; in other words,
ice volume on millennial
time scales is a function of temperature and does not depend much on whether the Earth is in a warming or cooling phase.
For a very long
time scale (
ice ages and interglacials) the whole water
volume may be in equilibrium with the atmosphere...» Ahlbeck, J. (1999) at http://www.john-daly.com/oceanco2/oceanco2.htm
Published on YouTube Aug 12, 2013: This is a visualization of the Arctic Death Spiral showing the evolution of the
volume of sea -
ice over
time from 1979 to July 2013.