If the Fed Funds rate itself is at zero, then clearly banks have no incentive to try and get rid of excess reserves.
But
if the Fed Funds rate is above 0 % and IOER is 0 %, then there can be no excess reserves in the system.
You can try to, and you will succeed (sort of),
if the Fed Funds rate maintains a respectable positive value that does not kill savers.
However, what would be a normal «discount» rate
if the Fed Funds Rate literally never rose above 0.25 % a year.
If the Fed funds target falls to 1 %, and commentators trot out Greenspan's name, remember this: the two situations are not the same.
For example,
if the fed funds rate increases by 0.25 percent, you might see a variable rate increase by the same amount.
My view of the Fed is that they want to drag their feet, because they see inflation rising, so even
if Fed funds futures indicate a 75 basis point cut, my current view indicates 50 as more likely, again, with language in the statement that indicates even - handed risks.
I will tell you now that
if the Fed Funds rate follows that path, the Fed will blow something up, and then start to loosen again.
If the Fed funds target falls to 1 %, and commentators trot out Greenspan's name, remember this: the two situations are not the same.
We would now say to «sell in May»
if the Fed Funds futures market was demonstrating an expectation that the Fed was going to hike in the future.
Not exact matches
And so what the
Fed is basically saying here is that because investors are using mutual
funds to invest in bonds, instead of owning the bonds, there could be a problem
if investors all want to leave at the same time.
Schultz:
If you put in a hawk such as [former
Fed governor Kevin] Warsh, the possibility of a quicker pace of
Fed funds rate hikes will increase.
In addition to the rules - based approach, Mester also suggested the
Fed not focus so much on short - term data changes in its economic projections, and tweaking those projections to link them to where each individual member believes the
funds rate should be
if those conditions come to fruition.
Not only has
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that the federal
funds rate will probably stay at rock bottom until 2015 in his latest public communication, but Vice Chair Janet Yellen, who is the front - runner to succeed him
if he leaves in January, would be least likely to hike up short - term rates prematurely.
If today we renormalized the
fed funds rate, it should be 3.4 percent.
The
Fed first has to raise their
Funds Rate significantly above zero and not cause a recession before we get to see
if this is true.
If I was Greenspan, I would at least cut the
Fed Funds target by a quarter at about 10:15 A.M. on Monday, giving the markets just enough time to digest any initial sell orders and providing something of a base from which to rally.
If the
Fed returned
Fed Funds to its lower bound level in the context of a recession, I would expect to see 10 year rates fall substantially perhaps to 1 percent without any QE or forward guidance.
But it will be many, many years from now, and
if we end up with Volcker style
Fed fund rates before then — as you seem to believe — it won't be because the Treasury was trying to surreptitiously inflate away the national debt.
Even
if the
Fed makes good on its plan to raise short - term interest rates,
fund managers expect them to move slowly and expect rates to remain low for a lot longer.
If Bank # 1 needs a few billion dollars for interest payments tomorrow and Bank # 2 has an extra few billion dollars in cash, they can lend the
funds to Bank # 1 and charge the rate set by the
Fed for interest.
On Friday, the CME FedWatch Tool, which is based on the CME Group 30 - Day
Fed Fund futures prices, showed a 73 percent chance that the
Fed would raise rates just 25 - 50 basis points,
if it voted to raise rates.
, which is based on the CME Group 30 - Day
Fed Fund futures prices, showed a 73 percent chance that the
Fed would raise rates just 25 - 50 basis points,
if it voted to raise rates.
If we don't hear about ETFs and hedge
funds blowing up after what happened yesterday, it means the PPT (NY
Fed + the Treasury's Working Group on Financial Markets — the «PPT» — which both have offices in the same building in lower Manhattan) has monetized and covered up those financial road - side bombs.
If the Federal Reserve raises the
fed funds rate to 3.5 % and sells its federal securities into the market, as it is proposing to do, by 2026 the projected tab will be $ 830 billion annually.
And better yet,
if the
Fed can keep the pensions thinly solvent by pumping up the stock market, Congress and State Governments can defer the inevitable taxpayer bailout of public pension
funds — for now.
Fed projections often change, and the new Fed chairman has a strong emphasis on raising rates only if the economic data would support a fed funds rate hi
Fed projections often change, and the new
Fed chairman has a strong emphasis on raising rates only if the economic data would support a fed funds rate hi
Fed chairman has a strong emphasis on raising rates only
if the economic data would support a
fed funds rate hi
fed funds rate hike.
But panelist Daniel Greenhaus, chief global strategist at institutional trading brokerage BTIG, who makes appearances on Bloomberg TV and works with clients in the hedge
fund world, said that hedgies take a longer view and avoid the noise in the blogosphere: «
If you talk to George Soros, all he wants is the big picture view of QE tapering: «When will the
Fed stop buying back bonds?
Even
if the Federal Reserve raises the
Fed Funds rate from 0.25 % to 2 %, interest rates are still low and what's more important is following the market (Treasury yields).
According to the Global Financial Stability Report released by the IMF (International Monetary
Fund), a large number of US companies servicing their debt could be in trouble
if the
Fed continues to raise rates.
The bottom line on this is that there's a good chance mortgage rates will climb between now and the end of 2015, especially
if the
Fed lifts the
funds rate in the fall.
The losses in short - term bond
funds aren't likely to be severe when and
if the
Fed raises interest rates again, and they're even more unlikely to match those registered in 1994.
Even
if the
Fed can change the fed funds rate in that situation, we must question whether it can predictably affect economic activi
Fed can change the
fed funds rate in that situation, we must question whether it can predictably affect economic activi
fed funds rate in that situation, we must question whether it can predictably affect economic activity.
The
fed funds rate directly or indirectly influences many other interest rates in our economy —
if you borrow or lend.
When (not
if, but when) the
Fed finally decides to raise the federal
funds rate, we will almost certainly see mortgage rates climb as well.
If we assume that the market (via the
fed funds forward curve) is correct (pricing in a 2 % rate in 2 years) and that inflation will gradually rise to 2 %, that will still leave us at a 0 % real rate in 2 years, which is where R * is right now.
But
if inflation pressures build more rapidly than expected, the FOMC could raise the
fed funds rate three more times this year, in June, September, and December.
It wouldn't raise the
fed funds rate until «considerable time» had passed, and only
if the economy was strong enough.
It will keep the
fed funds rate at its current near - zero level «for a considerable time» after it finally ends QE, especially
if the core inflation rate remained below 2 percent.
If the events above do come into play, the yield curve could steepen even further as moves in the
Fed funds rate are influencing short - term rates, while macro factors are driving longer - term rates.
Looking ahead,
if the yield curve maintains its current slope and the federal
funds rate hits the
Fed's long - term target, the 10 - year treasury yield will exceed 3 % in a few years.
This would test the resilience of the economic expansion, and
if the economy keeps growing as long bonds rise in yield, then match the rises in long yields with rises in the
Fed Funds rate.
In the so - called dot plot, which shows all the participants expectations of where the
Fed fund rates can be at the end of the year, end of this year and next year,
if you take out the lowest two, we get four rate hikes this year.
But
if the AHE is strong the
FED may move to commence shrinking its balance sheet because Lael Brainard has already informed us that the FED analysts theorize that QT has far less economic impact then a RISE in the fed funds ra
FED may move to commence shrinking its balance sheet because Lael Brainard has already informed us that the
FED analysts theorize that QT has far less economic impact then a RISE in the fed funds ra
FED analysts theorize that QT has far less economic impact then a RISE in the
fed funds ra
fed funds rate.
If I give up Starbucks, I then would put the money that I have saved from giving up the ridiculously expensive coffee into a
fund to
feed the poor.
Illinois could
feed 38,000 to 49,000 more low - income women and babies through a federally
funded nutrition program
if it followed the lead of 25 other states and demanded rebates from infant formula companies, a Washington policy group and U.S. representatives said Monday.
This guidance applies to companies who make and market breast milk substitutes (BMS),
feeding bottles or teats for healthy infants anywhere in the world, even
if the specific
funding refers to one of their specialist BMS products.
If we had more
funding for food, the task of
feeding kids a healthful, less processed meal would be far easier to accomplish.
«It might be reasonable from these industry -
funded studies to consider that this would be a good additive to formula
if you are forced to stop breast -
feeding,» she said in an e-mail.
These data can
feed a system in which teacher preparation programs undertake continuous improvement and can receive government grant
funding or regulatory relief
if they demonstrate success.