Sentences with phrase «if ukip»

This might be the case in East of England as if UKIP are at 40 % or so (as some polls have been suggesting), the Greens and the Lib Dems would need at least 10 % to take a seat, assuming that the Tories win 2 and Labour take the other one.

But might they end up voting Tory if UKIP go backwards?

i tend to agree with Jack Sheldon actually, I think if UKIP collapsed the Tories would be the major beneficiary in the short term even if labour held up due to Corbyn polarising anti Lab voters tactically into the con column.

Mr Cameron could face a rebellion from within his own party if Ukip win a second seat — yet the polling suggests just that: the Conservatives are heading for a humiliating defeat.

If UKIP are a Conservative problem, there must be a Conservative solution.

She hailed the result in Derby, where the party unseated the Labour council leader, adding, in a reference to Brexit: «If UKIP does crumble I think you could still arguably make the case that it's been one of the most successful political parties in history.»

This could happen if Ukip establishes itself next year as the clear second - place challenger to Labour in much of the north, as well as to the Tories along England's east and south coasts, while the Greens build up support in university seats where they have started to put down roots.

Carswell said that if Ukip won the Rochester and Strood byelection on 6 November, which has been triggered by the defection of Conservative MP Mark Reckless, the «silent, reflective doubt» would become «something far more kinetic and animated and urgent».

The trouble in many of these seats is if Ukip voters back May.

ToryDiary: Tory HQ think they can keep Labour to 35 % of the national vote but that if UKIP splinter the Tory vote that'll be enough to install Miliband as PM

Main Tory HQ think they can keep Labour to 35 % of the national vote but that if UKIP splinter the Tory vote that'll be enough to install Miliband as PM»

The Tory rightwinger David Davis had already warned that it would represent a crisis for Cameron if Ukip came second, and Cameron will now battle to retain discipline.

And if Ukip's vote goes heavily Tory there, that would suggest there must be other seats in other regions where it is splitting more evenly between reds and blues.

He said he would not indulge in bravado talk but added that things «could be very different» if Ukip won Rochester and that centre - left voters were starting to come his party's way.

But using projections based on recent polls, it says that even if either Ukip or the Lib Dems could tie with Labour on 20 %, the electoral system would mean neither would win more than 20 seats, with Labour remaining at 140 to 150.

He added: «The country needs a strong Ukip more now than ever before, for if Ukip ceases to be an electoral force there will be no impetus on Theresa May and her government to give us real Brexit.

If UKIP are now going to focus resources on those Tory MPs and candidates who accept the European status quo there will be an increased incentive for Conservative Associations to select more Eurosceptic candidates.

You say quite rightly that UKIP has drawn supporters from all parties, and those people would not necessarily revert to their old voting habits if UKIP ceased to exist.

If Ukip beat Labour on Thursday in the European election, expect much of the dissent currently rumbling just beneath the surface across both the right and left of the PLP, to explode into public view.

If the Conservatives look like getting 305 seats at the next General Election but could get an extra 20 - 30 seats by forming a short - term narrow pact with Ukip, and if Ukip believe they can force Miliband to promise an in - out referendum by forming a short - term narrow pact with the Conservatives, we should not allow personality issues to prevent us from doing the deal.

Michael Fabricant suggested offering an in / out referendum on UK membership of the EU if UKIP promise not to stand against Tory candidates in the 2015 general election.

The former Tory MP, who triggered the vote after defecting from the Tories, said there was «nothing we can not achieve» if Ukip was able to extend its appeal to «all Britain and all Britons».

If Ukip had received another 1,200 votes, than they would have taken another seat instead of Nick Griffin.

Even if a UKIP candidate polls 30 votes - it could be the differnce between a Conservative caniddate winning and losing.

Meanwhile, research commissioned by The Sun has suggested Labour could lose 44 MPs to the Tories if Ukip voters flock to Mrs May's party at a general election.

If UKIP break 6 % at the next election I'll streak naked down Whitehall in a Nigel Farage mask whilst singing Land of Hope and Glory...

TP's very own Dan Hodges finally streaked down Whitehall today - three years after promising to do so if Ukip did well at the last election.

And since, in my experience, libertarians tend to be liberals I find myself wondering if UKIP's self - defined libertarianism is actually all that libertarian.

If Ukip perform well, one of the main stories today could be the victory of non-mainstream parties.

In summary, if UKIP moved their economic policy to the left, not too far to the left as I mentioned before, just away from the supply side tosh, they could become a major electoral force and convert those 15 to 17 per cent poll numbers into actual votes on the ground.

If UKIP can do so remarkably well in Eastleigh then they can do it anywhere — at the next by - election and even a general election.

If UKIP wants a realistic shot at more than a couple of seats, they'll have to jump ship now.

It also shows that the Conservatives are right to fear the electoral damage they would suffer if UKIP gains ground.

Instead, if UKIP's actual candidate, Diane James, fights the seat again in two years time, history suggests that her best hope is to end up in third place, ahead of Labour.

Indeed, even if UKIP just held on its current ex-Tory voters and did not win over any more, David Cameron would be heading for a heavy defeat.

A defection is pretty quickly forgotten though, the real kicker from the Carswell defection is the by - election that comes with it, if UKIP win that by anything like last night's Survation poll suggests expect a much more concrete impact on the polls.

If Ukip take support primarily from the Tories, as they did in Essex last week, they could deliver it to Labour.

That said, I would be surprised if Ukip captured many seats from Labour next May: Grimsby, perhaps, and just possibly Rotherham.

If UKIP were to disappear after the EU elections and the Tories were to be reunited with their lost voters, they would gain just 5.3 pts — not nearly enough to overhaul Labour's lead.

If UKIP have some purchase in the working class it is because of the oportunism of New Labour and the uselessness of the Labour Left.

And of course if UKIP were to disappear, some of those Labour defectors could return, potentially adding 2 pts to Labour's score.

If Ukip wins the Newark byelection on 5 June, Clegg will win again — the story will then be David Cameron's crisis.

If UKIP had another defector lined up, the end of the Conservative Party conference would have been the moment to reveal it.

If UKIP were able to harness English concerns about both of the Unions of which their country is a part, this would place the party in a potentially very powerful position.

He says he'll be «very disappointed» if Ukip comes third.

If UKIP matches Tory vote that's more worrying.

If UKIP has any tactical sense (which I think it does) it will exploit any plans ruthlessly, neatly if dishonestly linking them to Romanian and Bulgarian migration next year.

Only if UKIP win many more seats than handful they are currently forecast would they have much power.

For sure, we don't know if the Ukip - mania will last for another two years; and if it does quite how that will play out in relation to the Tory / Labour / Lib Dem votes.

Tristram Hunt and Gloria de Piero could also lose their seats if Ukip thrive under their new leader.