I'm not predicting this, but what
if average global temperature increased 0.5 degrees in the next twenty years?
«The results show that the extreme sea levels observed during Hurricane Katrina will become ten times more likely
if average global temperatures increase by 2 °C», said Dr Jevrejeva.
PS — I still can not get persudaed that lots of bad things will happen
if the average global temperature increases from say 288.4 K to 289.9 K. Especially when most of the increase seems to come from slightly warmer nights,
• No adaptive responses to coral bleaching, even on a regional scale, will be available
if average global temperature increases 2 °C by 2050.
If average global temperature increases by 3C, the average temperature of the tropics increases by only about 1 C (i.e. a 0.3 % increase).
Not exact matches
In December 2015, the world agreed to the Paris Accord; to slash greenhouse gas emissions to hold
global average temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C (over what it was before the Industrial Revolution), and,
if we miss that target, to as far below 2 degrees as possible.
But
average global temperatures will
increase dramatically
if nations just sit and wait until then, concludes the report, Redrawing the Energy - Climate Map.»
According to Flannery, even
if we reduce our carbon dioxide emissions by 70 percent by 2050,
average global temperatures will
increase between two and nine degrees by 2100.
For more than a decade, IPCC scientists have warned that many people will suffer greatly
if Earth's
average global temperature increases by more than 2 ° Celsius (3.6 ° Fahrenheit) over what was typical before the Industrial Revolution.
According to the Paris Agreement,
global emissions must peak by 2020 and then start declining
if we want to keep
average global temperature increase under 2 ° Celsius.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are
increasing its concentration in the atmosphere, raising
temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists in equilibrium with water / ice, would precipitate out
if not for the CO2, so acts as a feedback; since the oceans cover so much of the planet, water is a large positive feedback; melting snow and ice as the atmosphere warms decreases albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming than the
global average; decreasing the
temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are
increasing in amplitude and slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its driving gradient decreases; the larger slower meanders
increase the amplitude and duration of blocking highs,
increasing drought and extreme
temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
... Polar amplification explains in part why Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet appear to be highly sensitive to relatively small
increases in CO2 concentration and
global mean
temperature... Polar amplification occurs
if the magnitude of zonally
averaged surface
temperature change at high latitudes exceeds the globally
averaged temperature change, in response to climate forcings and on time scales greater than the annual cycle.
If one accepts that the «
global average»
temperature is the one and only important correlating parameter, it seems that one would have to conclude that an
increase in the «
global average»
temperature results in an
increase in the mass of glaciers.
We can not afford to delay further action to tackle climate change
if the long - term target of limiting the
global average temperature increase to 2 °C, as analysed in the 450 Scenario, is to be achieved at reasonable cost.
If you wanted the
global / regional / local
averages to somehow provide a measure of
average human misery due to
increasing temperatures, then population - weighted or un-weighted
averages will probably capture that, since the density of met stations is a reasonable proxy for population density.
Approximately 20 to 30 percent of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at
increased risk of extinction
if increases in
global average temperature exceed 1.5 to 2.5 °C.
''
If and when CO2 concentration in the atmosphere reaches 550 ppm, what will be the
increase in
global average surface
temperature relative to the year 2000?»
This seems to misunderstand the climate system lag time: «
If and when CO2 concentration in the atmosphere reaches 550 ppm, what will be the
increase in
global average surface
temperature relative to the year 2000?»
For example,
if this contribution were to grow linearly with
global average temperature change, the upper ranges of sea level rise for SRES scenarios shown in Table SPM - 3 would
increase by 0.1 m to 0.2 m. Larger values can not be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise.
Figure 1:
If climate skeptics are right about climate sensitivity (green), then
global average temperature increases will be more moderate this century, shown here for RCP6 (left) and RCP8.5 (right).
If average global temperatures rise by just 3 °C, then Europe's drought risk could
increase to double the area faced with drying out.
If climate skeptics are right about climate sensitivity (green), then
global average temperature increases will be more moderate this century, shown here for RCP6 (left) and RCP8.5 (right).
But even
if this new trend continues, «it is not yet at a rate that would meet the long - term
temperature goal of the Paris Agreement of holding the
increase in the
global average temperature to well below 3.6 °F (2 °C) above preindustrial levels.»
:: An Anamoly describes the sum of difference over a year, when this sum is added to the baseline
Temperature,
average annual
global Temperature for the year is described, when this figure is added to the population the
average is
increased,
if the Anomaly is positive.
If greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere were to stabilize in 2100 at levels projected in the B1 and A1B emission scenarios, a further
increase in
global average temperature of about 0.5 °C would still be expected around 2200.
If CO2 is a forcing, the
temperature could only
increase (unless compensated for by an as - yet - undiscovered forcing which magically disappeared as soon as credible
average global temperature measurements became available).
Denmark's prime minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said
if the world wants to limit
increase in
average global temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius, then both developed and developing nations have to take urgent action and that poverty alleviation or development goals can not be tackled without addressing climate change.
Even
if these INDCs are fully implemented, the
average global temperature is still on track to
increase 2.7 - 3.7 degrees C by 2100, according to a range of studies.
«The notion it would be catastrophic
if carbon dioxide were to
increase and
average global temperature were to rise a few degrees is preposterous.
If climate ambition is not raised progressively, it is estimated that the path set by the INDCs would be consistent with an
average global temperature increase of around 2.7 degrees Celsius (°C) by 2100, falling short of limiting the
increase to no more than 2 °C.
Whereas
if incorrectly use the term to mean make something hotter - the oceans are not making things hotter, but rather they are moderating, and
increasing the
average global temperature.
An
average $ 2.5 trillion (# 1.76 trn) of the world's financial assets would be at risk from climate change impacts
if global temperatures are left to
increase by 2.5 °C by 2100, warns a new study by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics.
That is problematic
if you want to explain the
increase in
global average temperature as due to UHI only, but it doesn't require perfect cancellation everywhere.
Parker's null effect was in searching for a trend in UHI: an
increase over time, globally, to see
if that could be used as an alternative explanation for the
increase in
global average temperature.
Climatologist Dr. Pielke Sr. rips RealClimate.org's claims: «It is straightforward to shed doubt on Gavin Schmidt's (and the IPCC) claim» — «
If the
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration were so dominate we would expect the
global average [annual] lower troposphere
temperature to more - or less monotonically continue to rise in the last decade or so.
The scientific consensus has concluded that further
increases in CO2 and
average global temperature are almost certain to destroy the coral communities of the Great Barrier Reef for hundreds
if not thousands of years.
Addressing these emissions will be critical
if we are to achieve the UNFCCC goal of limiting
average global temperature increases and climate change.
If we allow sustained
global average temperature increases of more than 1 degree Celsius, we will suffer irreversible climate destabilization and a planet largely inhospitable to human civilization.
Actually
if the influence of ENSO and volcanoes are removed from the
global average temperature plot, a continuous
increase in
temperature appears.
If we all the oil locked in the tar sands (1.63 trillion barrels), the
average global temperature would
increase 0.4 degrees Celcius — half of what we've already seen.
Or
if we assume
average global temperature is currently 15 C, that by 2075 that
average global temperature will be 17 C. First there is zero evidence of this happening and second one could assume one will first get 1 C
increase in
global temperature.
Finally, even
if the
increase is «only» 3 degrees Celsius, remember that this is an
increase in the
average global temperature.
The skeptics have a responsibility to answer the obvious question,
if average global temperatures are
increasing, what is the cause?
If radiative forcing were to be stabilised, keeping all the radiative forcing agents constant at B1 or A1B levels in 2100, model experiments show that a further
increase in
global average temperature of about 0.5 °C would still be expected by 2200.
It could
increase global average daytime
temperatures - especially
if you included the area of the plywood oceans and have somewhat lower
global average nite time
temperatures.
So I estimate that
if we followed IEO2011 / RCP8.5 out to 2035, and then stabilized our forcing, we would eventually arrive at an
average global temperature increase of 2.4 ºC.
Sea level rise here is happening 3 - 4 times as quickly as the
global average — with the expectation, the USGS says, that «
if global temperatures continue to rise, rates of sea level rise in this area are expected to continue
increasing.»
If they are the cause of
global warming,
average nighttime
temperatures should
increase more than daytime ones — reducing the total daily
temperature swing.
Specifically, the term is defined as how much the
average global surface
temperature will
increase if there is a doubling of greenhouse gases (expressed as carbon dioxide equivalents) in the air, once the planet has had a chance to settle into a new equilibrium after the
increase occurs.
But given that carbon dioxide levels were now substantially higher than anything in the past two millions of years, in either glacials or interglacials, it had become abundantly clear that the greenhouse effect was something we needed to take extremely seriously: even
if the precise future
increase in
temperature was still an unknown quantity, with a fairly wide error - range, models indicated that for a doubling of carbon dioxide from pre-industrial levels, a rise of three degrees celsius as a
global average was the most likely outcome.