Not exact matches
That's why the «
radiative forcing» concept works — it doesn't matter
if the initial push is from greenhouse
gases or the sun.
If we knew ocean heat uptake as well as we know atmospheric temperature change, then we could pin down fairly well the
radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere, which would give us a fair indication of how much warming is «in the pipeline» given current greenhouse
gas concentrations.
That's why the «
radiative forcing» concept works — it doesn't matter
if the initial push is from greenhouse
gases or the sun.
As far as I know,
if the only physical mechanism under consideration is the
radiative cooling of the planet's surface (which was heated by shortwave solar radiation and reradiated at longer wavelengths in the infrared) via
radiative transport, additional
gas of any kind can only result in a higher equilibrium temperature.
If you are testing for
radiative absorption, then the type of
gas matters.
A sharp change in lapse rate will (absent sharp changes in optical thickness per unit distance, which occurs at TOA and at the surface even in wavelength bands dominated by well - mixed
gases) tend to differ from
radiative equilibrium — the inflection point may correspond to a maximum deviation from
radiative equilibrium
if the
radiative equilibrium profile has some intermediate lapse rate in that vicinity.
Even
if adjustments are required (not likely), this would have no real impact on the well quantified relationship between
radiative forcing from greenhouse
gases and increasing global temperatures.
3) Under the assumption of
radiative equilibrium, it can be shown that the surface temperature of a planet would slightly and non linearily increase with the concentration of IR active
gases (primarily H2O)
if and only
if radiation was the only mean for energy transfer.
Also,
if one uses a simple grey earth model one finds that not taking into account the distribution of
radiative forcing of changes in solar irradiance overestimates its strength by a factor of 2 - 3 compared to greenhouse
gas forcing.
The GTP metric requires knowledge of the same parameters as the GWP metric (
radiative efficiency and lifetimes), but in addition, the response times for the climate system must be known, in particular
if the lifetime of component x is very different from the lifetime of the reference
gas.
At basic level, It falls out of the equations for
radiative transfer
if you increase a greenhouse
gas.
Finally,
if I were to emphasize any single point in the above commentary, it would be that in addition to an analysis of trends, a detailed knowledge of the
radiative physics of greenhouse
gases and their consequences is needed for proper interpretation.
Seriously —
if this heat pile up and CO2
radiative trapping of heat really worked AND it is essential to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions then Engineers — who are actually smart unlike climate scientists — would have easily built a «Greenhouse
gas coal fired power station.
If there were no greenhouse
gases, it would be less clear whether convection or radiation governed in the troposphere, since there would be a lot less resistance to
radiative transport.
Thermal
radiative equilibrium for his black boundaries is isothermal, and
if the
gas has a different thermal equilibrium then the system perpetually violates the second law with a
radiative - gravitaional «heat fountain» that runs without work being done, precisely as my silver wire example does.
If look look back over my comments on this thread, you will note that I repeatedly state that
radiative gases can slow the cooling of land surface and by intercepting surface IR they can heat
gases in the lower troposphere.
Then my jaw dropped when you said, «
If it were otherwise, the
gas would have no temperature, as this is a measure of
radiative activity.»
If it were otherwise, the
gas would have no temperature, as this is a measure of
radiative activity.
In other words,
if the LTE assumption holds, the
radiative properties of the atmospheric
gases in a given «layer» can increase or decrease the average energy content of that layer relative to the others.
If the troposphere contained
radiative gases but was held static, it would still exhibit a small lapse rate.
If one inserts a thin and stationary horizontal adiabatic wall (well... ok, «insulated wall») at any height L within a
gas column at equilibrium (no net diffusive,
radiative or convective heat flows within this column) then the pressure on both sides of the wall integrated over its surface match the weight of the column above.
«in an isotropic non GHG world, the net would be zero, as the mean conduction flux would equalize, but in our earth it is still nearly zero»
if the atmosphere were isothermal at the same temperature as the surface then exactly the downwelling radiation absorbed by the surface would be equal to the radiation of th surface absorbed by the air (or rather by its trace
gases) and both numbers would be (1 - 2E3 (t (nu)-RRB--RRB- pi B (nu, T) where t (nu) is the optical thickness, B the Planck function, nu the optical frequency and T the temperature; as the flow from the air absorbed by the surface is equal to the flow from the surface absorbed by the air, the
radiative heat transfer is zero between surface and air.
However,
if one converts the total effects of all greenhouse
gases, aerosols, etc. into an equivalent increase in CO2 concentration (by reference to their effective
radiative forcing RF, that from a doubling of CO2 being F2xCO2), then what you suggest would be pretty much in line with the generic definition of TCR in Section 10.8.1 of AR5 WGI:
A change in the LW
radiative forcing of atmospheric
gases will,
if applied to the same climate, result in some disequilibrium.
Thus,
if a
gas has a high (positive)
radiative forcing but also a short lifetime, it will have a large GWP on a 20 - year scale but a small one on a 100 - year scale.
But
if climate really is as insensitive as he claims it to be, the climate forcing producing the ice ages must have been huge, much larger than the
radiative forcing from orbital changes, surface albedo, and greenhouse
gases.