The Panel excluded any discussion of the environmental
impacts of oil sands development, although they did allow the consideration of increased oil prices generated by the pipeline on the taxes and royalties associated with forecast future oil sands production.
What will also be an issue, potentially for legal appeal, is what the Joint Review Panel didn't consider:
the impacts of oil sands development.
In March of 2008 the Canadian Boreal Initiative, the Pembina Institute and the Alberta Research Council published a report recommending the use of offsets in the oil sands region of Alberta as one tool to control the terrestrial
impacts of oil sands development, including the impact on caribou.
While provinces other than Alberta are projected to benefit, modelling by the Canadian Energy Research Institute projects that 94 per cent of the GDP
impact of oil sands development will occur within Alberta.
I suspect that the people with power to make relevant decisions are already fully aware, and those that don't know about the environmental
impact of the oil sands can't do much (anything) about it.
The greenhouse
impact of the oil sands is also far less significant than some claims, particularly given the reality that oil consumption rates are what matters — not the amount of gigatons of carbon sitting in deposits of this sort in the ground.
«The CO2 numbers [in the oil sands] sound frightening when only the production and refining are taken into account... Yet once the oil is burned, a variety of sources say the total lifecycle
impact of oil sands relative to the average crude used in the U.S. is much smaller, including the Council on Foreign Relations (17 percent higher emissions) and Cambridge Energy Research Associates (5 - 15 percent).»
The current sampling approaches are poorly designed for the purposes of providing an integrated understanding of
the impacts of the oil sands industry on the aquatic environment, according to the governments.
For my home province of Alberta, the priority should be setting scientifically informed limits on total cumulative environmental
impacts of the oil sands.
Having grown up in the oil sands region, she witnessed
the impacts of oil sands development on her Nation's people, culture, and land.
Not exact matches
In order to understand the
impact of the
oil price crash on
oil sands, you need to look at the implications for each
of these categories.
If you're talking about a new project with no significant investment already deployed, building a new mine if you expect today's prices to hold in the long term is a tough call — a 50 - year
oil sands project is a lot
of risk for less than a 10 % rate
of return — but even there, you can see the
impact of the lower Canadian dollar and the hedge provided by a royalty regime which lowers rates when prices are low.
Next, I want to address the potential
impact of new GHG policies on
oil sands projects — in short, I want to show that the Prime Minister's contention that it would be crazy to impose new GHG regulations on the
oil sands sector is incorrect.
In preparation for testimony before the House
of Commons finance committee in Ottawa on March 10, I pulled together some thoughts on three aspects
of the
impact of the
oil - price crash on
oil sands projects and policies, and I thought I'd share them with you here over this and the next couple
of posts.
Exxon has argued against all the other shareholder proposals as well, including a «policy to explicitly prohibit discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity»; a policy articulating Exxon's «respect for and commitment to the human right to water»; «a report discussing possible long term risks to the company's finances and operations posed by the environmental, social and economic challenges associated with the
oil sands»; a report
of «known and potential environmental
impacts» and «policy options» to address the
impacts of the company's «fracturing operations»; a report
of recommendations on how Exxon can become an «environmentally sustainable energy company»; and adoption
of «quantitative goals... for reducing total greenhouse gas emissions.»
It adds that «approval or denial
of the proposed project is unlikely to have a substantial
impact on the rate
of development in the
oil sands, or on the amount
of heavy crude
oil refined in the Gulf Coast area.»
If you're talking about a new project with no significant investment already deployed, building a new mine if you expect today's prices to hold in the long term is a tough call — a 50 year
oil sands project is a lot
of risk for less than a 10 per cent rate
of return — but even there, you can see the
impact of the lower Canadian dollar and the hedge provided by a royalty regime which lowers rates when prices are low.
However, it's certainly incorrect to assume that the existence
of single pipeline
impacts all
oil sands supply costs, or that not allowing it would render that
oil supply unavailable at any price.
From there, they make two calculations to assess the
impact of the new, KXL - carried
oil sands production on global emissions.
If I take Keystone XL out
of the mix, in my toy model, I haven't
impacted the cost
of the marginal barrel
of oil sands because I haven't changed the cost
of a barrel shipped by rail, I've simply reduced the profit on the barrels which would be shipped via KXL by forcing them to be shipped to market in a more expensive way.
In his May 2009 paper «The Canadian
Oil Sands: Energy Security vs. Climate Change» (long one of my favorite sources), Levi identifies a list of six security and economic consequences of oil consumption and production and then examines how increased oil sands production and exports to the U.S. would mitigate or exacerbate these impac
Oil Sands: Energy Security vs. Climate Change» (long one
of my favorite sources), Levi identifies a list
of six security and economic consequences
of oil consumption and production and then examines how increased oil sands production and exports to the U.S. would mitigate or exacerbate these impac
oil consumption and production and then examines how increased
oil sands production and exports to the U.S. would mitigate or exacerbate these impac
oil sands production and exports to the U.S. would mitigate or exacerbate these
impacts.
The process
of extracting
oil from
oil sands is not a clean one; it has a significant
impact on land, air, and water.
Oil sands development is a matter of provincial government policy: in a government policy paper (the Mineable Oil Sands Strategy) issued a few years ago (and since recalled), the core area of the oil sands resources in Alberta was designated a «sacrifice zone», within which it was acknowledged that significant and irreversible environmental impact would be permitted to occur, to enable the realization of the significant economic benefits such development promis
Oil sands development is a matter
of provincial government policy: in a government policy paper (the Mineable
Oil Sands Strategy) issued a few years ago (and since recalled), the core area of the oil sands resources in Alberta was designated a «sacrifice zone», within which it was acknowledged that significant and irreversible environmental impact would be permitted to occur, to enable the realization of the significant economic benefits such development promis
Oil Sands Strategy) issued a few years ago (and since recalled), the core area
of the
oil sands resources in Alberta was designated a «sacrifice zone», within which it was acknowledged that significant and irreversible environmental impact would be permitted to occur, to enable the realization of the significant economic benefits such development promis
oil sands resources in Alberta was designated a «sacrifice zone», within which it was acknowledged that significant and irreversible environmental
impact would be permitted to occur, to enable the realization
of the significant economic benefits such development promised.
He discussed the
impacts on climate change connected with the expansion
of the
oil sands and raised last summers» wildfires in BC as an example
of how climate change is
impacting us now.
And in the environmental
impact statement, Pilgrim officials wrote: «While crude
oil shipment downriver is a relatively recent phenomena on the Hudson River, the increasing production
of crude in North America because
of fracking, and Canadian tar
sands, is likely to result in increasing demand to move the crude
oil to coastal areas for shipment to refineries.
«We have environmental
impacts now, and these
impacts are about to get a lot bigger,» notes
oil sands policy analyst Marc Huot
of the Pembina Institute, an environmental group working for responsible development.
Regarding Keystone, I myself think it is clear that Obama should say no to Keystone, because it is something in his power to do, which would have some effect on retarding development
of the tar
sands (despite what the flawed State Department EIS [Environmental
Impact Statement] said), and because we really wouldn't get any significant benefit from saying yes; no real
oil security, few permanent jobs, and most
of the money goes to Canada and to refiners in free - trade zones.
We still don't know enough about tar
sand oil, or bitumen, which takes longer to break down due to its high viscosity, but doesn't spread, we also don't know much about the behavior
of oil from a blowout, such as the Deepwater Horizon BP blowout, and we know little
of how crude
oil behaves in the Arctic Ocean, where there is ice, or how to remediate it,» said Michel Boufadel, director
of NJIT's Center for Natural Resources Development and Protection and a member
of the panel
of experts charged with evaluating the
impact of spills in Northern waters.
The plays off
of the pipeline construction are improved probability by the Canadian
oil sands producers, a slight positive
impact on Gulf Coast margins, and the construction and E&C companies involved.
Based on information and analysis about the North American crude transport infrastructure (particularly the proven ability
of rail to transport substantial quantities
of crude
oil profitably under current market conditions, and to add capacity relatively rapidly) and the global crude
oil market, the draft Supplemental EIS concludes that approval or denial
of the proposed Project is unlikely to have a substantial
impact on the rate
of development in the
oil sands, or on the amount
of heavy crude
oil refined in the Gulf Coast area.
But here I will take up only the climate
impact of the pipeline and associated
oil sands exploitation.
Environmentalists» statements about the massive greenhouse
impact from
oil -
sand carbon don't mention that it would take a millennium or more, even at a breath - taking rate
of extraction
of, say, 5 million barrels a day, for that CO2
impact to be fully realized (as if no new energy options, or methods for sopping up CO2, will arise in the future), as pointed out by Andrew Leach last June:
The Nature Climate change paper by Swart and Weaver about the
impact of the
oil / tar
sands on climate made quite a splash in Canada.
Please watch this powerful video from Gasland's Josh Fox on the devastating environmental
impact of tar
sands oil and the on - going Tar
Sands Action taking place at the White House.
Materials Whether it's clearcuts for lumber, quarries for
sand and gravel,
oil drilling for asphalt and roofing, or the huge amounts
of CO2 generated in concrete manufacture, construction
of buildings have a direct
impact on the environment.
Third, stack up the
impacts of the climate disruption that burning tar
sands oil leads to.
Critics
of the TransCanada pipeline have warned
of potential spills in America's heartland as well as the climate
impacts of allowing more tar
sands oil, which has a higher carbon footprint than conventional sources, into the US and other markets.
Protesters fear environmental damage, especially from possible
oil spills; are frustrated with
oil companies» grip on US politics; and condemn the
impacts of tar
sands exploitation on the boreal forest and First Nations in Canada.
The Surfrider Foundation is using this year's Hands Across The
Sand event to raise awareness on «Three Essential Truths» about new offshore drilling: it will not reduce the price at the pump; it will not eliminate America's reliance on foreign
oil; and it is an inherently risky activity that causes significant
impacts to the environment through every stage
of the drilling process.
Environmentalists have expressed concerns about the
impact of developing the
oil sands and say the crude is more corrosive to pipelines than conventional
oil.
This is a critical element
of the draft environmental review because while State determined that tar
sands is dirtier than conventional
oil, it concludes that Keystone XL would have little
impact on the expansion
of tar
sands and therefore policymakers and the public needn't consider the
impacts of that expansion.
The projected expansion
of the
oil sands industry will require too much water to sustain the Athabasca River system, especially with the added
impact of predicted climate warming, according to a new report published by the University
of... Read more →
That's basically the position
of the State Department in its draft Environmental
Impact Statement [PDF], which says Keystone is «unlikely to significantly impact the rate of extraction in the oil sands.&
Impact Statement [PDF], which says Keystone is «unlikely to significantly
impact the rate of extraction in the oil sands.&
impact the rate
of extraction in the
oil sands.»
Bitumen production from the Canadian
oil sands provides a point
of reference that could be used to observe and better manage the land and water
impacts of a rapid transition to unconventional fuels, suggests Dr. Sarah Jordaan
of the Energy Technology Innovation Policy Research Group, Department
of Earth and Planetary... Read more →
Champions
of Keystone XL argue that it is essential to delivering jobs,
oil and energy security, but the SEIS concluded that «not building the pipeline would have almost no
impact on jobs; on US
oil supply; on heavy
oil supply for Gulf Coast refineries; or even on the amount
of oil sands extracted in Alberta.»
Thus, State analyzed whether KXL would have significant
impacts on
oil sands extraction, not whether political suppression
of all
oil transport would have significant
impacts.
The review did not recommend approval
of the pipeline, but raised no major objections, concluding that the project was «unlikely to have a substantial
impact» on the climate or
oil sands production.
Approval
of the controversial Keystone XL pipeline would have only a marginal positive
impact on the economics
of the Canadian
oil -
sands industry, but could nevertheless trigger a rush
of high - risk investment into additional projects that would rely heavily on rising
oil prices, according to new research from the Carbon Tracker Initiative.
Having explored the risks to western Canada's waterways created by the Alberta
oil sands in White Water, Black Gold (a Planet in Focus selection in 2011), filmmaker David Lavallee now turns his attention to the wider
impact of oil and gas extraction in the «new energy» age.
We analyzed how much carbon tar
sands oil produces and assessed the climate
impact of the Keystone XL pipeline, concluding that building it would unleash a massive expansion
of tar
sands development and cause a dramatic increase in carbon pollution.