It also has a colossal EUR 27 bio
of impaired loans, plus another EUR 6.8 bio of vulnerable loans thrown in for fun.
Lower dairy prices for struggling farmers have seen
impaired loans in the Commonwealth Bank of Australia's $ 21 billion agricultural portfolio jump 36 per cent in the six months to December.
So, a 50 % haircut
on impaired loans looks about right to me, which would be about EUR 7.7 bio.
(EUR 10.6 B Total Equity — 3.5 B Pref Shares — 29.2
B Impaired Loans * 60 % — 3.7 B Past Due Loans * 30 % + 16.5 B Provisions Addback) / 521.3 B Shares = EUR 0.006
In August, Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported that its $ 21.7 billion agricultural portfolio had about $ 390 million in
impaired loans down from $ 458 million.
Our total average loans are $ 213 billion and gross
impaired loans represent less than half a per cent of our loan book.
Management reported no
significant impaired loans in the third quarter though I do believe some might start showing up towards the beginning of 2016 when price hedges stop supporting many explorers.
Its New Zealand dairy exposure has remained the same at $ 7.6 billion but there has been an improvement in the level
of impaired loans.
The notion that IPM's loan underwriting record equals Bank of Ireland's (BKIR: ID) is laughable — so I'm going to assume an eventual 60 % write - down
on impaired loans, and 30 % on past due loans.
Sure, they probably have
impaired loans in better shape, but you can bet they've plenty in far worse shape too...
Impaired loans are now a whopping 29.2 billion, which I expect will ultimately suffer a cumulative write - down of 60 %.
I'll continue to apply a 50 % haircut to 15.8 B of
impaired loans, and a 25 % haircut to 4.1 B of past due but not impaired loans (reference last year's piece for supporting comments).