The table below compares
the implied probabilities at 5Dimes and The Greek with the probabilities from our bracket simulator.
The table below compares the current championship odds and
implied probabilities at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook with the latest probabilities from our bracket simulator in order to find undervalued teams.
Wichita State won the national championship in 3.0 % of our simulations, which is significantly higher than
the implied probability at the Westgate Superbook (1.23 %).
Not exact matches
The
implied probability of +200 is 33.3 % and I feel that it is more or less a coin flip
at this point.
You can, however, take Bama to not win the championship
at +120 (45.45 %
implied probability), which, given the supposed 76 % actual
probability, would be a valuable spot.
The table below compares the current odds to be the first head coach fired
at 5Dimes, Bovada and Sportsbook.com (SB) with the
implied probability for each.
The Northwest is far and away the least competitive division, with the Thunder listed
at 1/50 — an
implied probability of more than 98 %.
A steam move triggered by Pinnacle on the Marlins
at +112 caused the Giants to immediately move from -121 to -107, over a 3 % swing in
implied probability.
Given that they were
at -155 beforehand (60.8 %
implied probability), I would put them
at around -220 or -230 now, close to a 70 %
implied probability.
To find a sportsbook's theoretical hold percentage, you must first look
at the odds for each team and convert them into
implied probability by using this formula: (100 / (100 + odds).
At 7 PM, before Bookmaker took down their odds, Clinton closed as a massive -780 favorite, while Trump was listed as a +550 underdog (15.38 %
implied probability).
At Bookmaker, the Dolphins were +4500 (2.2 %
implied probability) to win the Super Bowl and +760 to win their division before Tannehill's injury.
The table below displays the odds
at Bovada and Sportsbook.com, alongside with the
implied probability for each landing spot.
The Warriors, who added superstar Kevin Durant to their already strong core of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green, are listed
at 1/100, which is an
implied probability of roughly 99 %.
By looking
at implied probabilities, we can find out the theoretical hold percentages to see how much juice these books are taking
Later this week the team
at Bet Labs will be converting these spreads into
implied probabilities in order to create their own win total projections, but we wanted to know whether there were any other discrepancies in the market that bettors should know about.
They still have to play
at Oklahoma, which likely explains their +1600 odds (5.88 %
implied probability).
Golden State was listed
at -310 to lose consecutive games
at some point this season and, when we account for the juice, which works out to an
implied probability of 74.02 %.
Though nobody besides the Warriors and Cavs really has a decent chance
at winning the title, Boston's
implied probability fell from 7.69 % to 4.58 % within a week after the season began... not good.
After being blown out
at home by the Rams, the Hawks fell from 18/1 to 60/1, an
implied probability change of 5.3 % to 1.6 %.
Our research reveals that although Kentucky's
probability to win the title moved from 34.6 % to 38.5 %, the value is still on taking the field
at -120 That's because -120 equates with an
implied probability of 54.55 % which is still slightly lower than 61.5 % chance we give the field of winning the title.
Below examines the NBA Divisional odds
at BWin along with the
implied probability for each team, and their updated odds
at Sportsbook.com.
However, that
implied probability correlated with a future price of +267 — not the -115 that was being offered
at 5Dimes.
The table below displays the 2014 - 15 NHL Divisional Odds
at Bovada along with the
implied probability for each team.
While Beasley certainly isn't my favorite to win the MVP, there is a realistic path for him to get there and
at 80 - 1; he's worth a couple of leftover dollars after you're done breaking down the
implied probability / true odds of Lady Gaga's cleavage.
The table below displays the current odds and
implied probability for all 14 lottery teams
at three prominent offshore sportsbooks.
Since the initial analysis was published, Florida's odds of winning the national championship have improved from +4000 to +2200
at 5Dimes, which means their
implied probability improved from 2.44 % to 4.35 %.
The draw is listed
at +405 (roughly 20 %
implied probability) while Trinidad & Tobago is a big +741 underdog.
At Bookmaker, their Super Bowl odds went from 7/1 (12.5 %
implied probability) to 25/1 (3.85 % IP).
Bookmaker initially offered the Pack
at +1150 odds, 8.0 %
implied probability, to make the playoffs.
At the current price, the Jets have an
implied probability of ~ 68 % while Minnesota is being given about a 36 % chance to win the series.
The
implied probability of Eric Gordon winning is 90.0 % based on the odds
at 5Dimes.
At -700 odds, the
implied probability of no Wild Card team reaching the NFL championship game is 87.5 %.
Now they're
at +21000, meaning their
implied probability has improved slightly from 0.40 % to 0.47 %.
The
implied probability of «Yes» is 72.2 % and 44 of 48 (91.7 %) games between 1 - seeds and 16 - seeds in our database have been decided by
at least 10 points.
At +218 odds the
implied probability of a title is 31.4 %.
At +350 odds (
implied probability of 22.2 %) there is no value on the Pats.
The implication of the new subatomic physics was that certainty was replaced by
probability, or the notion of tendencies rather than absolutes: «we can never predict an atomic event with certainty; we can only predict the likelihood of its happening»... This directly contradicts the mechanistic model we explored above, and it
implies that a subject such as normal birth needs to be looked
at as a whole rather than its parts...»
Learning and habits increase the
probability of dogs attacking as a group, too, because learning
implies past success
at using aggression to drive away a threat, or capturing prey.
Implied probability of failing to get a record is 30 % to 39 % with last trade
at 32 %.
Or, in other words, if we assume that AGW necessarily
implies that global mean surface temps will rise
at some point in the future (although we might argue about estimated
probabilities of the extent) on the assumption that mitigating natural variations will cancel out over the long term.