We will look at
the implied team total using Pinnacle's closing lines against what the teams actually scored.
We're breaking
the implied team total into three scoring types — passing, rushing, and kicking points.
To do that, we apply the «Matchup %» to
the implied team total to break it down into projections for passing, rushing, and kicking points.
These projections are not fantasy points; rather, they are expected in - game points derived from
the implied team totals.
Highlighting matchups that feature offenses and defenses that score and allow points in similar ways presents an opportunity to exploit
the implied team totals.
We'll use our archive to look at
implied team totals and see just how much variance there is from game to game.
Not exact matches
According to Fantasy Labs» Vegas Report, the Packers are one of just a handful of
teams remaining in the league who have yet to hit their
implied total in a game.
Backup pass - catching RB Austin Ekeler is stuck on special
teams due to a broken hand, so Gordon is locked in as the three - down workhorse on an offense fighting for its playoff life with the week's fourth - highest
implied total.
Later this week the
team at Bet Labs will be converting these spreads into
implied probabilities in order to create their own win
total projections, but we wanted to know whether there were any other discrepancies in the market that bettors should know about.
Naturally, the public was attacking Tampa Bay at home with a slate - high 3.6 goal
implied goal
total against a Pittsburgh
team who had allowed the second-most goals (at that time) over the past month.
With a
total of 38 and a line of +5.5, the Texans are
implied to score just 16.25 points... maybe not a
team you should target in daily fantasy.
According to Fantasy Labs, the Dolphins are one of just a handful of
teams who have yet to hit their
implied total in a game.
They are also just one of five
teams in the league to have hit their
implied total in three out of the four weeks according to Fantasy Labs.
It's also interesting to see that the Warriors are receiving a majority of
total dollars wagered, which further
implies value on the home
team.
The Panthers superficially look OK with their 2 - 1 NFL record, but they have three
implied losses and have underperformed their Vegas
team totals with a bottom - three Vegas Plus / Minus.