Lower rates do not always and everywhere
imply higher equity valuations — see Japan over the past 25 years — two bear markets of 60 % each in a ZIRP environment.
Not exact matches
According to Bloomberg data, the VIX Index, a proxy for U.S.
equity market
implied volatility, traded over 50 on Monday morning, the
highest level since the financial crisis.
While the early - 2017 Federal Reserve minutes «expressed concern [about] the low level of
implied volatility in
equity markets,» it is worth noting that the SPX
implied volatility levels at both 80 % and 90 % moneyness (corresponding with out - of - the - money puts used for portfolio protection) generally were much
higher than the VIX levels.
Meanwhile, the PE10 at 26 sits in its
highest quintile,
implying that
equities are severely overpriced.
Of course, when the underlying ratio is
high, it
implies that people are attributing
high valuations to
equities relative to other assets, and vice-versa.
Finally, his analysis
implies that
high equity exposures — even over a period of decades — do not materially enhance returns.
When the interest rates are low enough to allow for positive leverage, investors can boost significantly their return on
equity by borrowing a
high percentage of the acquisition price (which
implies high LTV ratios).