Not exact matches
And mortgage refinancing has been one of the most
important reasons why the economy has continued to move forward in the last few years, despite the stagnation in real wages, which is what is show in this next graph of
average hourly wages divided by consumer prices to give us «real
hourly wages»:
In preparation for the trading madness, it seems that the consensus is for a nonfarm payrolls increase of 192,000 jobs, a work week of 34.5 hours, and, most
important for Chairman Yellen, an increase in
average hourly earnings of 0.2 %.
While we believe payrolls and
average hourly earnings are both likely to miss consensus estimates, we think the employment report may be somewhat less
important than usual for the monetary policy outlook, because 1) recent data have been firm so we have some room for a miss, 2) the August seasonal issue is now well known so even a somewhat larger miss may not significantly alter the staff view, and 3) there are several months between now and December to make up for any weakness in tomorrow's report.
Growth in
average hourly earnings is
important for interest rates because it is positively related to inflation, as higher earnings growth tends to spark faster inflation.
However, the most
important hurdle is near the $ 670 level and the 100
hourly simple moving
average.