That data, scientists said at the Nov. 10 briefing, can be used to
improve hurricane forecasting by providing more data and in a more timely manner than possible with other satellites or hurricane - tracking aircraft.
That budget provision doesn't jibe with bipartisan - supported Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, which the President signed into law last month and which states that «NOAA must plan and maintain a project to
improve hurricane forecasting.»
During Thursday's press conference, officials also touted the updated models and tools they have to produce better forecasts for individual storms, part of a concerted effort that has greatly
improved hurricane forecasts over the past couple of decades.
According to a 2007 presentation at the 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference,
the improved hurricane forecasts between 2000 — 2006 resulted in savings of $ 3 billion compared to what the forecasts of the 1990s would have cost.
Not exact matches
Over the past two decades, forecasters have
improved their ability to predict where
hurricanes will go, but improvements in
forecasting a
hurricane's intensity have proved elusive.
Scientists working to
improve storm intensity
forecasting have identified a more accurate means of predicting a
hurricane's strength as it approaches landfall, using sea temperature readings that they say will help forecasters better prepare communities for storm impacts in the face of sea - level rise caused by rising global temperatures.
Others, such as a new microsatellite system aiming to
improve measurements of
hurricane intensity and a highly anticipated new computer simulation that
forecasts hurricane paths and intensities, are still in the calibration phase.
A University of Miami (UM) Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science research team is studying sea spray to help
improve forecasting of
hurricanes and tropical cyclones.
Powerful
hurricanes such as Harvey, Irma and Maria are also providing a testing ground for new tools that scientists hope will save lives by
improving forecasts in various ways, from narrowing a storm's future path to capturing swift changes in the intensity of storm winds.
The readings are expected to
improve weather
forecasting and
hurricane monitoring.
«By
improving our understanding of the processes that drive tropical cyclones and
hurricanes, we will be better positioned to
improve our ability to
forecast these events and their impacts with longer and longer lead times,» he says.
Gabriel Vecchi, head of the climate variations and predictability group at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab and another author on the paper, says decades of weather prediction data show that
forecasts have
improved — and will
improve — as scientists learn more about
hurricanes.
«Light - based method
improves practicality and quality of remote wind measurements: Innovative technology could aid
hurricane forecasting, aircraft safety and wind energy generation.»
«We believe this first study of rogue waves occurring over space and time during
hurricanes will help
improve real - time
forecasting for shipping companies and other organizations that need to understand the risk of extreme events in the oceans.»
Their data will be used in computer models to
improve weather
forecasts, including
hurricane tracks and intensities, severe thunderstorms and floods.
Artist's rendering of NASA's ISS - RapidScat instrument (inset), which will launch to the International Space Station in 2014 to measure ocean surface wind speed and direction and help
improve weather
forecasts, including
hurricane monitoring.
That program was established by NOAA in 2009, in part as a response to the pummeling the U.S. received from a number of
hurricanes during the early years of that decade and the relative lack of progress made in
improving forecasts up to that point.
In the 25 years since
Hurricane Andrew devastated southeastern Florida, the 3 - day track
forecast for
hurricanes has
improved by 65 percent, she said.
Another model replaces the retiring Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Hurricane Model after 22 years, and it also
improves track and intensity
forecasts.
During the press conference, Mary Erickson, deputy director of National Weather Service, touted the increased accuracy of
hurricane forecasts resulting from investments into
improving models.
Recent advances have
improved NOAA's intensity
forecasts by 20 percent, but there are so many variables influencing the developing of a
hurricane — from the energy they draw from the oceans to their interactions with the surrounding environment and their dynamic inner cores — that storms like Matthew befuddle many experts.
The
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), which began in 2009, is an effort to improve the service's ability to forecast hurricane tracks and intensity further in
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), which began in 2009, is an effort to
improve the service's ability to
forecast hurricane tracks and intensity further in
hurricane tracks and intensity further in advance.
Can the numerical simulation and
forecasting of
hurricanes be
improved by accounting for these and a host of other processes involved in the dynamic, two - way interaction between sea and storm [Zhao and Chan, 2017; and H. Zhang et al., 2016]?
Less well understood by the scientific communities interested in
hurricanes — from their basic physics to
improved forecasts — and the processes controlling key physical and biological variables in the upper ocean, are the details of coupled interactions between tropical cyclones and the ocean.
(IV) the need for additional research and monitoring to
improve forecasting of
hurricanes and typhoons and to understand the relationship between climate change and
hurricane and typhoon development.
Since becoming operational in 1995, the GFDL
hurricane model has played a major role in
improving hurricane prediction, resulting in a significant reduction in track
forecast error.
Results from real - data simulations and
forecasts strongly suggested the potential of
improving hurricane prediction with a comprehensive three - dimensional model.
Weather
forecasting in the region had «vastly
improved» since previous
hurricanes, he said, but global warming was worsening the impacts of such storms.
The
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), which is currently underway, is intended to
improve intensity
forecasting among other parameters, said Knabb.
Frank Marks, head of NOAA's
Hurricane Research Division (HRD), who flew into Andrew to assess its strength as it approached Florida, agreed that as track
forecasts improve, intensity and structure have to become the focus of research.
By deriving detailed meaning and clarity from new instrument technologies, we have
improved weather
forecasting, severe storm tracking for
hurricanes and understanding of the Earth's climate and advanced meteorological research.