Not exact matches
Over the past two decades, forecasters have
improved their ability to predict where
hurricanes will go, but improvements in forecasting a
hurricane's
intensity have proved elusive.
Scientists working to
improve storm
intensity forecasting have identified a more accurate means of predicting a
hurricane's strength as it approaches landfall, using sea temperature readings that they say will help forecasters better prepare communities for storm impacts in the face of sea - level rise caused by rising global temperatures.
Others, such as a new microsatellite system aiming to
improve measurements of
hurricane intensity and a highly anticipated new computer simulation that forecasts
hurricane paths and
intensities, are still in the calibration phase.
Powerful
hurricanes such as Harvey, Irma and Maria are also providing a testing ground for new tools that scientists hope will save lives by
improving forecasts in various ways, from narrowing a storm's future path to capturing swift changes in the
intensity of storm winds.
Their data will be used in computer models to
improve weather forecasts, including
hurricane tracks and
intensities, severe thunderstorms and floods.
Another model replaces the retiring Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Hurricane Model after 22 years, and it also
improves track and
intensity forecasts.
«
Intensity of hurricanes: New study helps improve predictions of storm intensit
Intensity of
hurricanes: New study helps
improve predictions of storm
intensityintensity.»
Recent advances have
improved NOAA's
intensity forecasts by 20 percent, but there are so many variables influencing the developing of a
hurricane — from the energy they draw from the oceans to their interactions with the surrounding environment and their dynamic inner cores — that storms like Matthew befuddle many experts.
But last year, the team was able to
improve the resolution on its
hurricane model, which helped
improve the
intensity predictions.
The
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), which began in 2009, is an effort to improve the service's ability to forecast hurricane tracks and intensity further in
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), which began in 2009, is an effort to
improve the service's ability to forecast
hurricane tracks and intensity further in
hurricane tracks and
intensity further in advance.
By comparison, the US 2014 budget for weather research (things like
improved hurricane track /
intensity prediction) was $ 82 million.
Cost comparison of storm damage, comparing inaction, various
intensities of geoengineering, and
improving urban structures in cyclone and
hurricane vulnerable areas.
Three - dimensional upper - air wind, temperature, and moisture profiles with high vertical and temporal resolution are key to
improved prediction of
hurricane track and
intensity.
The
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), which is currently underway, is intended to
improve intensity forecasting among other parameters, said Knabb.
Frank Marks, head of NOAA's
Hurricane Research Division (HRD), who flew into Andrew to assess its strength as it approached Florida, agreed that as track forecasts
improve,
intensity and structure have to become the focus of research.