Election boundary changes (for general and European elections) will be made on the basis of these, but this time are taking place in the context of a decision by government to advise a reduction
in Dail seat numbers by between 6 (160 seats) and 13 (153 seats).
As the third largest party
in the Dail, Sinn Fein is in pole position to form a coalition with either Fianna Fail or Fine Gael if the electoral arithmetic stacks up following the next Irish general election.
As with the 1981 General Election, such a significant change
in Dail representation levels will effectively prove a major «game changer» and could well shift the dynamics of electoral success decidedly towards / away certain political parties and political groups and could well act to accelerate the level of political change that may be associated with that election.
Taoiseach Enda Kenny said as much
in the Dail very shortly after the UK referendum, and Chancellor Angela Merkel said much the same thing in July.
Not exact matches
Health Minister Simon Harris was given permission to draft a bill to be put before the
Dail in the event of the Eighth Amendment being repealed.
The recommendations emerging from those sessions included a series of worthwhile reforms to
Dail procedures, notably the need to elect the Ceann Comhairle (Speaker) of the
Dail by secret ballot of all TDs; and a strong majority
in favour of inserting specific protection for economic, social and cultural rights (like the rights to housing and healthcare) into the Constitution.
In all, 24 submissions were made to the Constituency Commission in relation to this revision of European Election constituencies — a decidedly lower number than the levels of submissions made in relation to reviews of Dail election constituencies and City / County Council election constituencies but an increase on the number of submissions specifically referring to European Parliament constituency boundaries in the 2007 and 2012 Constituency Commission reviews (eight in both cases) and the thirteen submissions made to the 2003 revision of European Election boundarie
In all, 24 submissions were made to the Constituency Commission
in relation to this revision of European Election constituencies — a decidedly lower number than the levels of submissions made in relation to reviews of Dail election constituencies and City / County Council election constituencies but an increase on the number of submissions specifically referring to European Parliament constituency boundaries in the 2007 and 2012 Constituency Commission reviews (eight in both cases) and the thirteen submissions made to the 2003 revision of European Election boundarie
in relation to this revision of European Election constituencies — a decidedly lower number than the levels of submissions made
in relation to reviews of Dail election constituencies and City / County Council election constituencies but an increase on the number of submissions specifically referring to European Parliament constituency boundaries in the 2007 and 2012 Constituency Commission reviews (eight in both cases) and the thirteen submissions made to the 2003 revision of European Election boundarie
in relation to reviews of
Dail election constituencies and City / County Council election constituencies but an increase on the number of submissions specifically referring to European Parliament constituency boundaries
in the 2007 and 2012 Constituency Commission reviews (eight in both cases) and the thirteen submissions made to the 2003 revision of European Election boundarie
in the 2007 and 2012 Constituency Commission reviews (eight
in both cases) and the thirteen submissions made to the 2003 revision of European Election boundarie
in both cases) and the thirteen submissions made to the 2003 revision of European Election boundaries.
Despite this, further small swings to the party
in a number of
Dail constituencies could see further seat gains being made by Labour, as the map above suggests.
The Labour Party made significant gains
in the February 2011 election, almost doubling their share of the vote nationally and increasing their number of
Dail seats from 20 to 37.
However, the fractured political landscape (
in particular relating to the likely level of Fine Gael and Labour seat losses) and the favourable impact of the boundary changes associated with the 2012 Constituency Commission report means that Fianna Fail would achieve more success
in translating these support levels into
Dail seat numbers than they had at the 2011 contest.
The party also had a relatively strong degree of support
in Offaly, but
in particular the Tullamore area, during the 1990s, during which time Pat Gallagher held a
Dail seat for the party
in the Laois - Offaly constituency.
This seeks to ask the following question
in relation to different opinion poll results — what do these poll figures mean
in terms of the likely number of
Dail seats that could be won by the different parties and groupings on those national support levels?
Adrian Kavanagh, 1st June 2011 The Labour Party made significant gains
in the February 2011 election, almost doubling their share of the vote nationally and increasing their number of
Dail seats from 20 to 37.
This posts follows on the previous posts
in this series which updates the analysis carried out previously for 154 -
Dail seat and 160 -
Dail seat scenarios to consider what options the Constituency Commission might face if they decide to opt for a 158 - seat
Dail Eireann.
So what do these population figures mean
in terms of which constituencies may, or may not, be likely to have their election boundaries changed following on the upcoming Consituency Commission report, especially given that this body effectively will have eight different options
in terms of total
Dail seat numbers to choose from?
Given that the Constitution explicitly states that the population per TD ratio nationally (this does not apply to individual constituencies) must not exceed 30,000 (or indeed fall below 20,000), this means that the smallest number of
Dail deputies, which can be envisaged
in the upcoming Constituency Commission review of / report on
Dail constituency boundaries, is 159, which is a higher number that the current membership (158 TDs) of
Dail Eireann.
One of the candidates listed above, Maureen O'Sullivan, won a
Dail seat (at the 2009 Dublin Central by - election) on the same day as she won her seat
in the Council elections and subsequently never actually took up her seat
in Dublin City Council.
The same applies
in the case of Joe Higgins, though he won a European Parliament seat on the same day as winning his Council seat; subsequently he won a seat
in Dublin West at the
Dail election of 2011.
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