Sentences with phrase «in giss»

What we are discussing here is the testing of scientific hypotheses, in this case the presence of a trend in the GISS record, using formal methods on limited observations (i.e. econometrics / statistics).

Have you bothered to pause and reflect on what a «low frequency non-linear trend» in the GISS series implies for the whole «unprecedented warming» argument?

But when temps stopped rising after 1998, this type of filter misbehaves and they conveniently changed the type of padding used in the GISS smoothed graphs and others (and IPCC).

This lack of «completeness» of the physics is my primary issue with AGW predictions — I am certain that climate models (at least the source code I've examined in GISS ModelE) do not capture very important parts, namely clouds and evaporation effects as they are exceptionally dependent upon many factors that are too small to model.

Finally, wouldn't you agree (analytically) that the presence of a unit root in the GISS series in fact invalidates the conclusions of Zorita, Stocker and von Storch (2008)?

Topics that I work on or plan to work in the future include studies of: + missing aerosol species and sources, such as the primary oceanic aerosols and their importance on the remote marine atmosphere, the in - cloud and aerosol water aqueous formation of organic aerosols that can lead to brown carbon formation, the primary terrestrial biological particles, and the organic nitrogen + missing aerosol parameterizations, such as the effect of aerosol mixing on cloud condensation nuclei and aerosol absorption, the semi-volatility of primary organic aerosols, the importance of in - canopy processes on natural terrestrial aerosol and aerosol precursor sources, and the mineral dust iron solubility and bioavailability + the change of aerosol burden and its spatiotemporal distribution, especially with regard to its role and importance on gas - phase chemistry via photolysis rates changes and heterogeneous reactions in the atmosphere, as well as their effect on key gas - phase species like ozone + the physical and optical properties of aerosols, which affect aerosol transport, lifetime, and light scattering and absorption, with the latter being very sensitive to the vertical distribution of absorbing aerosols + aerosol - cloud interactions, which include cloud activation, the aerosol indirect effect and the impact of clouds on aerosol removal + changes on climate and feedbacks related with all these topics In order to understand the climate system as a whole, improve the aerosol representation in the GISS ModelE2 and contribute to future IPCC climate change assessments and CMIP activities, I am also interested in understanding the importance of natural and anthropogenic aerosol changes in the atmosphere on the terrestrial biosphere, the ocean and climate.

Winter Visual inspection of the Global average temperature graph in GISS Hansen, J et al 2006 suggests that the period 1966 to 1980 was relatively stable with little net change in average global temperature and we will use this as a baseline against which we will assess later decades.

I guess if Frank was sitting around in a GISS office getting paid 6 figure sum plus benefits plus grants for research all the while playing blog games I'm sure he'd refine and tighten up his conjectures and submit to a journal where he had some mates who could peer review it for him.

Excellent forensic analysis, uncovering the massive error in the GISS data that basically eliminates the claimed global warming.

After examination of all of the stations in this region, five of the USHCN station records were altered in the GISS analysis because of inhomogeneities with neighboring stations (data prior to 1927 for Lake Spaulding, data prior to 1929 for Orleans, data prior to 1911 for Electra Ph, data prior of 1906 for Willows 6W, and all data for Crater Lake NPS HQ were omitted), so these apparent data flaws would not be transmitted to adjusted periurban and urban stations.

The temperature trends over that period in the GISS record is 0.24 + / - 0.04 degC / dec.

One more question; in your GISS - USA - temp - anom - adjusted - for - UHI data set, why do you adjust the early part of the century down and the latter portion up?

These graphs illustrate that the 8 - year trends in the UK Met Office data are of course just as noisy as in the GISS data; that 7 - year trend lines are of course even noisier than 8 - year trend lines; and that things start to stabilise (trends getting statistically robust) when 15 - year averaging is used.

This is trivial, there are flat temp times in GISS and HadCRUT, this remark is below quality... 4.

But in the GISS - E2 - R historical and single forcing simulations, only the albedo effect of land use change appears to have been included.

They do so in many coupled GCMs; in GISS - E2 - R the effective climate sensitivity relevant to Historical forcing is ~ 85 % of the equilibrium value.

Yao, 1998: Temperature dependence of low cloud optical thickness in the GISS GCM: Contributing mechanisms and climate implications.

The cold area in GISS Run 1 is contiguous to the area of incipient glaciation in the Ganopolski model runs, that occurred in some, but not all, runs.

[3] It is thought to be similar to that in GISS ModelE, which was estimated as ~ 0.07 W / m2 in 2000 relative to 1850 — only about a third of the unexplained excess.

Paul, The Schmidt and Miller papers were submitted at the same time, so I would expect them both to reflect the same position regrading correction or not of the ocean problem in GISS - E2 - R.

This would not automatically appear in the instantaneous net flux perturbation and would need to be added in either by using the parameterisation algorithm in GISS - E2 - NINT or by adding in the values calculated from the single - forcing case or other.

Wang, J., and W.B. Rossow, 1998: Effects of cloud vertical structure on atmospheric circulation in the GISS GCM.

Russell, G., and D. Rind, 1999: Response to CO2 transient increase in the GISS Coupled Model: Regional coolings in a warming climate.

That is, methane, nitrous oxide, CFCs and minor GHGs add TWICE as much forcing in GISS - E2 - R as per the AR5 best estimate.

Schmidt 2014 states GISS - E2 - R has a stratospherically - adjusted (Fa) F2xCO2 value of 4.1 W / m2, which is in line with the 4.08 - 4.12 W / m2 for Fa in GISS - E per Hansen 2005.

All the ERF efficacy, TCR and ECS estimates depend on the ERF value for F2xCO2 in GISS - E2 - R.

It occurs to me to wonder whether this error in the GISS - E2 - R ocean mixing parameterisation may account for its behaviour in Land use change run 1.

Copies of many of our papers are available in the GISS publications database.

Shindell, D.T., G. Faluvegi, S.E. Bauer, D. Koch, N. Unger, S. Menon, R.L. Miller, G.A. Schmidt, and D.G. Streets, 2007: Climate response to projected changes in short - lived species under the A1B scenario from 2000 - 2050 in the GISS climate model.

The RF for doubled CO2 in the GISS E2 models is 4.1 W / m2; [17] I can not find a published iRF value.

Perhaps the warmest Feb in the GISS record.

LU forcing in GISS - E2 - R reaches -0.19 W / m2 during the 1980s, relative to 1850, and stays constant until 2012.

Figure 1 reproduces Figure 1a of Marvel et al., which shows the relationship in GISS - E2 - R between changes ΔT in simulated GMST and ΔF in forcing, for six individual forcing agents as they are estimated to have evolved since 1850 and for the Historical simulations (all - forcings together, 6 runs).

He also correctly cites the Economist and the Bbc regarding the pause which Dr Hansen then appears to deny although the standstill clearly seen in Giss which you yourself referenced here

We summarize here forcing datasets used in GISS global climate models over the years.

Eg, just as invalid as picking 1998 Not really the same, as the starts of those warming periods are not based on individual years but are based on the five year mean in GISS and I'm not sure what smoothing they use in CRU.

Stratospheric water vapour forcing is not imposed or calculated separately in GISS - E2 - R, but arises from the oxidation of methane.

One of the observational records employed in the GISS analysis is the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) data set for surface air temperature at meteorological stations, which is maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Calculations and descriptions of the forcings in the GISS CMIP5 simulations (1850 - 2012) can be found in Miller et al. (2014).

Yao, M. - S., and A.D. Del Genio, 1999: Effects of cloud parameterization on the simulation of climate changes in the GISS GCM.

The measure of F2xCO2 used by Marvel et al. for iRF, stated to be the model iRF value for CO2 doubling, appears instead to be the RF value in the GISS - E2 - R model.

Liu, J.P., G.A. Schmidt, D. Martinson, D.H. Rind, G.L. Russell, and X. Yuan, 2003: Sensitivity of sea ice to physical parameterizations in the GISS global climate model.

This extraordinarily large difference suggests both that F2xCO2 using ERF is well above 4.1 W / m2 in GISS - E2 - R, and that in that model non-CO2 GHGs produce a far higher ERF relative to CO2 than per AR5 estimates.

Koch, D., G.A. Schmidt, and C.V. Field, 2006: Sulfur, sea salt and radionuclide aerosols in GISS ModelE.

Another «unusual variation» is the observation of warming in the GISS, HadCRUT, & UAH temperature records, NOT MODELS.

; — RRB - Easy, I can safely say that the precautionary principle has not played any role in GISS ModelE development.

lolwot, btw, the 0.1 C fudge is still in the GISS error margin.

In Gavin's case, stuff like microclimate siting issues in the GISS raw observational inputs he then homogenizes into global warming trends.

Koch, D., 2001: Transport and direct radiative forcing of carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols in the GISS GCM.

Rind, D., G.L. Russell, G.A. Schmidt, S. Sheth, D. Collins, P. Demenocal, and J. Teller, 2001: Effects of glacial meltwater in the GISS Coupled Atmosphere - Ocean Model: Part II: A bi-polar seesaw in Atlantic Deep Water production.