You will know we are
in a bear market if metal, industrial, or some of the harder genres of hip - hop return to the scene.
Plus you can do really well
in a bear market if your the one buying at the bottom boys.
Not exact matches
If growing unemployment was not enough, a decline
in labor
market participation was also on the rise, the ILO said, a warning
borne out by the latest U.S. jobs data from December which showed that the labor force participation rate tumbled to 62.8 percent, its worst level since January 1978.
This effect has now found its way to B2B
marketing — a space
in which those targeted by marketers are traditionally left feeling
bored and cold,
if not completely inhuman.
So
if the laws
in your country allow capital losses to be used to reduce taxes, then make sure to harvest your losses
if a
bear market ensues.
Additionally,
in a
bear market,
if the fundamentals of a security remain strong but the
market price declines, then yields go up.
If you are new to stock trading, you must know that bull
markets do not trend
in a straight line (the same is true of
bear markets).
When bonds yield 1.75 % for investment - grade bonds, then it's difficult to turn that into a 5 % -10 % return going forward...
If he wants to argue against that, and talk about Dow 5000 and
bear and bull
markets, then he's welcome to, but he's pushing at windmills
in my opinion, and he belongs back
in his ivory tower.
What
if you have a client who needs to make a significant withdrawal during a
bear market early
in retirement?
So
if we really are
in a bond
bear market, it's going to be very disorderly.
That is number is how large your nut needs to be to have a 99.99 % probability based on the last 100 years of data to be guaranteed to never run out of money no mater
if you retired into the worst
bear market in history.
This way,
if a
bear market occurs, you have a year of cash becoming available at the maturity date so that you do not have to sell stocks, and
in a bull
market you can buy new bonds as the ones you own mature, and you thereby benefit from the higher interest rates that high quality bonds give versus cash or CDs.
The pitch was that
if you just keep your money
in the
market when the going gets rough, such as
in bear markets, the substantial upside
in the good years will more than compensate for the down years, thereby leaving you with a solid annualized gain over long - term.
So
if you assume that the pattern holds, we are either
in a secular
bear market or we will get a large decline once we get a 2 % down day.
[01:10] Introduction [02:45] James welcomes Tony to the podcast [03:35] Tony's leap year birthday [04:15] Unshakeable delivers the specific facts you need to know [04:45] What James learned from Unshakeable [05:25] Most people panic when the stock
market drops [05:45] Getting rid of your fear of investing [06:15] Last January was the worst opening, but it was a correction [06:45] You are losing money when you sell on corrections [06:55]
Bear markets come every 5 years on average [07:10] The greatest opportunity for a millennial [07:40] Waiting for corrections to invest [08:05] Warren Buffet's advice for investors [08:55]
If you miss the top 10 trading days a year... [09:25] Three different investor scenarios over a 20 year period [10:40] The best trading days come after the worst [11:45] Investing
in the current world [12:05] What Clinton and Bush think of the current situation [12:45] The office is far bigger than the occupant [13:35] Information helps reduce fear [14:25] James's story of the billionaire upset over another's wealth [14:45] What money really is [15:05] The story of Adolphe Merkle [16:05] The story of Chuck Feeney [16:55] The importance of the right mindset [17:15] What fuels Tony [19:15] Find something you care about more than yourself [20:25] Make your mission to surround yourself with the right people [21:25] Suffering made Tony hungry for more [23:25] By feeding his mind, Tony found strength [24:15] Great ideas don't interrupt you, you have to pursue them [25:05] Never - ending hunger is what matters [25:25] Richard Branson is the epitome of hunger and drive [25:40] Hunger is the common denominator [26:30] What you can do starting right now [26:55] Success leaves clues [28:10] What it means to take massive action [28:30] Taking action commits you to following through [29:40]
If you do nothing you'll learn nothing [30:20] There must be an emotional purpose behind what you're doing [30:40] How does Tony ignite creativity
in his own life [32:00] «How is not as important as «why» [32:40] What and why unleash the psyche [33:25] Breaking the habit of focusing on «how» [35:50] Deep Practice [35:10] Your desired outcome will determine your action [36:00] The difference between «what» and «why» [37:00] Learning how to chunk and group [37:40] Don't mistake movement for achievement [38:30] Tony doesn't negotiate with his mind [39:30] Change your thoughts and change your biochemistry [40:00] The bad habit of being stressed [40:40] Beautiful and suffering states [41:50] The most important decision is to live
in a beautiful state no matter what [42:40] Consciously decide to take yourself out of suffering [43:40] Focus on appreciation, joy and love [44:30] Step out of suffering and find the solution [45:00] Dealing with mercury poisoning [45:40] Tony's process for stepping out of suffering [46:10] Stop identifying with thoughts — they aren't yours [47:40] Trade your expectations for appreciation [50:00] The key to life — gratitude [51:40] What is freedom for you?
Anyone who has traded for a while knows that the fastest money is made
in falling
markets, so
if you learn to trade both bull and
bear markets you will have plenty of opportunities to profit.
If you retired
in 1968, you went thru two
bear markets early on and the inflation of the 1970's.
It's easy to put it
in the back of your mind when it seems like all stocks do is rise but it's a question of when, not
if, the next
bear market will hit.
However,
if you experience a major
bear market early
in retirement, as
in 1937, 1968 or 2000, or add
in heavy inflation, as occurred
in the 1970's, and it takes you down to 4.5 %.
There are still likely to be two additions to my TFSA holdings
in 2016, hopefully
in February
if this lovely
bear market continues.
I really don't believe
in any kind of an organized «Plunge protection team», and certainly don't think that such an effort would be effective
in halting a
bear market even
if it existed.
If we are
in fact
in a long, post-Bull trading range — see our 100 - year Dow chart — than this is year ~ 5 of what could be a 10 - 15 year secular
Bear market.
Third and finally, the traditional story misses the real function of private banks, which is to solve an information problem
in the purest Hayekian senses. That is, banks are or should be specialists in risk assessment and risk taking. They should know their client, understand the local market and have their pulse on the broad economy. Arguably, if properly structured, they can and should do this better than other entities such as governments. In other words, the proper role of banks should be underwriting — lend money, hold the debt, and bear the risk. Which is a long - winded way of getting to the main point of this pos
in the purest Hayekian senses. That is, banks are or should be specialists
in risk assessment and risk taking. They should know their client, understand the local market and have their pulse on the broad economy. Arguably, if properly structured, they can and should do this better than other entities such as governments. In other words, the proper role of banks should be underwriting — lend money, hold the debt, and bear the risk. Which is a long - winded way of getting to the main point of this pos
in risk assessment and risk taking. They should know their client, understand the local
market and have their pulse on the broad economy. Arguably,
if properly structured, they can and should do this better than other entities such as governments.Â
In other words, the proper role of banks should be underwriting — lend money, hold the debt, and bear the risk. Which is a long - winded way of getting to the main point of this pos
In other words, the proper role of banks should be underwriting — lend money, hold the debt, and
bear the risk. Which is a long - winded way of getting to the main point of this post.
Kitces says he worries that advisors are
in danger of experiencing what he calls the «three strikes and you're out» risk, which is the real possibility that «
if clients have to go through a third
bear market in just over a decade, advisors are going to start losing clients.»
If you think we are heading into a bear market, losing less with dividend stocks is a good strategy if you want to stay allocated in equitie
If you think we are heading into a
bear market, losing less with dividend stocks is a good strategy
if you want to stay allocated in equitie
if you want to stay allocated
in equities.
Only time will tell
if this is truly the end of the
bear market but
in any case miners have a shot to start 2015 off positively.
If you shift to buying value stocks late
in the bull
market, by the time a
bear market comes, your portfolio will have a larger weight
in relatively safe, value names.
If the
market was «certain to crash»
in the event that
Bear Stearns failed, then the
market is certain to crash anyway, because
Bear Stearns wasn't the last shoe to drop - it was one of the first.
If you want to ensure you get the big returns from stocks that investment writers highlight when urging you to invest
in equities, you need to buy during
bear markets to make up for the lousy returns from those years when you buy at what proves to be the top of a bull
market.
If you bought VYM at the bottom of the
bear market in 2009 and held through summer of this year, your total annualized return would have been roughly 16 %.
Remember that an ability to preserve capital
in a
bear market is generally a more important skill than outperformance
in a bull
market, as
if you lose 10 % of your money, you have to then make more than 10 % to return to what you originally started with.
If you want to know when to expect a major change
in market sentiment, I recommend you watch this 5 - year uptrend line closely, as a breakdown below that level could lead to a new
bear market in the NASDAQ.
If you are
in the bond
bear camp, the next decision is your optimal means to short the bond
market.
If stocks enter into a new
bear market in 2015, it would obviously bad news for traditional «buy and hold» investors who must hope and pray that stocks continue on an upward trajectory forever (hint: they don't).
And
if we assume the DOW Index is indeed peaking, and that the subsequent
bear market might be the average decline of the last two
bear markets in magnitude and time duration, then the DOW Index could conceivably drop to 9000 by the Ides of March of 2016.
As much as i want to buy buy buy, I think I'm going to buy with caution for this might be the beginning of a greater
bear market and
if i spend all my capital now i may not have any more for any other potential deals to come
in the future.
They may have to, but they also may still find opportunities
if they learn how to invest
in an unpredictable, long - term
bear market.
The object is to be
in stocks that are leading the
market higher
in bull
markets, and
if you are not opposed to short selling, being short
in the weakest stocks that are leading the
market lower during
bear markets.
For example,
if you've got a stock that wasn't doing so well before a
bear market set
in, it probably won't start paying out huge profits once the
market improves.
If we are
in a
bear market and the investor is not opposed to short selling, we can look for stocks that will likely perform the worst, therefore making a nice profit on the short positions as prices fall.
The gold rally that began
in December of 2015 will differentiate itself from the 1982 - 1983
bear -
market rebound
if the gold price closes above its July - 2016 peak AND the HUI closes above its August - 2016 peak.
What
if stocks experience their third separate
bear market in under twenty years?
If this scenario of a third
bear market were to play out, the 35 year old investor
born in 1965 would have seen the S&P 500 make very little progress during their peak earning years.
So, how do we decide
if it's a correction
in a longer - term Bull
Market or a much more serious
Bear Market?
If much of the investment into bond mutual funds that has occurred the last couple of years is for purposes of dampening the volatility of a portfolio — and with the 10 - Year Treasury yield at 1.8 percent it's difficult to argue for a different motivation - then it's important to think through the thesis that bonds will defend a balanced portfolio
in an equity
bear market in the same way they have, especially to the extent they have
in the last two
bear markets.
But that's cold comfort
if you freak out and sell during a
bear market because you're
in way beyond your risk tolerance.
If it can continue to rally
in the face of heavy pressure from hedgers, it will be an excellent sign that the
bear market is likely over.
For a third example, there has been more strength
in market internals over the past two months than there normally would be
if we were dealing with the early stage of a
bear market.
Is the counter that they would behave better during a
bear market if their money was
in an actively managed fund?
7:00 a.m. - 8:00 a.m. Networking Breakfast
in Hotel Courtyard 8:00 a.m. - 9:00 a.m. Barnett Helzberg, Former Chairman & CEO, Helzberg Diamonds, Founder & Chairman, Helzberg Entrepreneurial Mentoring Program Topic: «What I Learned Before I Sold to Warren Buffett» 9:15 a.m. - 10:00 a.m. Hendrik Leber, Managing Director, Acatis [EUR] Topic: «How to Value a Business» 10:15 a.m. - 11:00 a.m. Paul Larson, Equity Strategist & Editor, Morningstar Stock Investor Topic: «Four Ways To Upgrade
in the
Bear Market» 11:15 a.m. - 12:15 p.m. Peter Lindmark, Managing Partner, Lindmark Capital Topic: «When Macro Matters» 12:15 p.m. - 1:15 p.m. Networking Lunch - Executive Deli Sandwiches
in Hotel Courtyard 1:30 p.m. - 2:30 p.m. Charles Mizrahi, Managing Partner, CGM Partners Fund LP, Author, Getting Started
in Value Investing & Editor, Hidden Value Alert [USA] Topic: «
If Buffett Were You, What Would He Do?»