As far as long - term investors are concerned the gold story is therefore a simple one: gold will be
in a bull market when confidence in the financial establishment (money, banks and government) is in a bear market and gold will be in a bear market when confidence in the financial establishment is in a bull market.
A buy and hold strategy does well
in bull markets when stocks are consistently rising.
Not exact matches
«While common wisdom has it that higher volatility necessarily signals a discrete end to the [
bull market], it is often the case that higher vol is a natural occurrence
in the «late innings» of extended rallies, particularly
when the Fed is raising rates, as was the case
in late 1999 - 2000,» he wrote.
He insists that
when the
market is clearly
in the latter stages of a
bull market it better to reduce a position materially and preserve capital.
«If you line up the previous El Niño outlier of 1998 with this March 2016 El Niño (as we might do
in lining up
bull market highs) it gives an idea of
when 2 degrees Celsius might first be broached
in a future El Niño effect: just 17 years!»
In reality,
when investors are paying extremely high prices for each dollar of earnings that equities produce,
market math dictates that future returns will be the reverse of what the
bulls are claiming — extremely low.
I compared my vision to the story of Red
Bull in the Shark Tank: While I'm competing with industry giants (they were up against huge companies like Pepsi and Coke), success means that you have opened a new
market (remember
when there wasn't a section of energy drinks
in every gas station and grocery store!?!).
He said the lapse
in selling is typically a «Thanksgiving phenomenon,» but given the state of the
bull market, even Cramer wasn't sure
when it would end.
As for
when the current six - year
bull market will lose steam, Lee pointed to two preconditions that marked the downturn
in three similar long - lasting rallies.
Then
in 1989, 1990, 1994, 1997, 1998 there were many times
when stocks collapsed and everybody was convinced the
bull market was over.
U.S. exchanges only recently ended a six - year
bull market, dropping 11 percent
in August
when China announced it was devaluing its currency.
Of course,
in bull markets and bear
markets it is only right that the RSI range,
when levels of an oversold and overbought position would be indicated, might be different.
Sales are always hard, especially
when times are good and investors are riding the coattails of one of the best performing
bull markets in modern times.
When bonds yield 1.75 % for investment - grade bonds, then it's difficult to turn that into a 5 % -10 % return going forward... If he wants to argue against that, and talk about Dow 5000 and bear and
bull markets, then he's welcome to, but he's pushing at windmills
in my opinion, and he belongs back
in his ivory tower.
The 35 year
bull market in bonds most likely ended on July 8, 2016
when the 10 year maturity U.S. Treasury Note yield hit an all - time low of 1.36 %.
Institutional sector rotation is common
in bull markets, and the rotation of funds from one industry to another enables broad - based uptrends to remain intact, even
when certain sectors are «overbought» (we hate that useless word).
When the stock
market started a
bull run later
in Obama's term, the air was taken out of the idea that the president was to blame for the dip, especially since none of his fiscal policies changed.
Moving averages work really well
in a
bull market, but not so much
when conditions turn sour.
That's just not what you usually see
in emerging
bull markets,
when the underlying buying interest focuses squarely on growth - both blue chip and emerging growth.
The last instance was at the start of a dramatic
bull market for stocks — 1982 —
when 16 years of brutal consolidation were finally shaken off and the 1966 top was left
in the dust.
The 1950s witnessed a strong
bull market in stocks, but
when the S&P 500 fell double digits
in 1957 bonds held up really well.
Bulls feeling some pain as the
market has fallen $ 55
in 3 weeks, just
when some thought gold was ripe for an upside breakout over $ 1375.
You can see that the 75/25 outperformed
in the 1950s and 1960s
when rates rose (although the enormous
bull market in stocks did much of the heavy lifting
in the 50s).
The gauge trades at a valuation of 18 times reported earnings, the highest since 2011
when it was
in the middle of a 19 percent slide, its biggest during the current five - year
bull market.
We note, with a more than a little bit of curiosity, that the last secular
bull market in U.S. stocks began
in 1982 — just
when the first Boomers turned 35.
In bull markets,
when a
market makes a new high consistently, every day a large heard of bearish traders are getting stopped out of short positions and liquidating, which fuels yet more buying.
While we've learned not to fight «overvalued, overbought, overbullish» extremes
in zero - interest rate environments where
market internals are uniformly favorable, we presently observe a situation much like the final peaks of the 1929, 1972, 1987, 2000 and 2007
bull markets,
when those mitigating factors were not
in place.
Institutional sector rotation is common
in bull markets, and the rotation of funds from one industry to another enables broad - based uptrends to remain intact, even
when certain sectors are -LSB-...]
When someone like Rick Rule says he sees another
bull market developing
in resources, it would probably be a good idea to listen.
Remember, I last worked
in the commercial banking and investment industry over a decade ago,
when the
bull market for gold and silver was just getting started and the best gold and silver mining stocks were soaring
in share price.
When there's a
bull market or the economy is
in the expansion phase of the business cycle, there are plenty of other investments.
Travis Hoium (Colgate - Palmolive):
When the stock
market is
in bull or bear territory, do you change your toothbrushing or dishwashing habits at all?
Our allocation can shift fairly quickly, especially
when you have a
bull market in the backdrop.
If you want to ensure you get the big returns from stocks that investment writers highlight
when urging you to invest
in equities, you need to buy during bear
markets to make up for the lousy returns from those years
when you buy at what proves to be the top of a
bull market.
I believe we're
in the «legitimate uptrend» portion of a
bull market in stocks — the time
when the big gains are made... All the ingredients are
in place for an incredible year
in stocks...
A confirmation of the secular
bull market occurred
in December 2016,
when QQQ penetrated its old high of 120.50.
For example, part of a money management strategy could involve buying pullbacks to support
when there is good reason to believe, based on fundamental analysis, that a
bull market is
in progress.
The
bull market began
when investing
in local «Gulf Companies» became
in vogue with Kuwaitis who wished to ride the coattails of the Middle East's oil - driven economic boom of that time.
Taking into consideration the fact that there is just two other circumstances
when the debt / GDP NYSE margin had increased by about 30 basis points or more
in a period of only three months — that happened
when the ration had reached its two major secular
bull market highs — the likelihood is highly probable that the NYSE margin debt / US GDP, is once more at its peak of all time high of 2.87 %!
When Nixon went off the gold standard
in 1971, an ounce of gold would have cost $ 35 USD, nine years later gold printed its
bull market high of $ 850 USD / oz, though the average price of $ 459 / oz from 1979 would be a better gauge of how high gold went during the
bull market of the 1970's.
-- 4 reasons why «gold has entered a new
bull market» — Schroders — Market complacency is key to gold bull market say Schroders — Investors are currently pricing in the most benign risk environment in history as seen in the VIX — History shows gold has the potential to perform very well in periods of stock market weakness (see chart)-- You should buy insurance when insurers don't believe that the «risk event» will happen — Very high Chinese gold demand, negative global interest rates and a weak dollar should push gold
market» — Schroders —
Market complacency is key to gold bull market say Schroders — Investors are currently pricing in the most benign risk environment in history as seen in the VIX — History shows gold has the potential to perform very well in periods of stock market weakness (see chart)-- You should buy insurance when insurers don't believe that the «risk event» will happen — Very high Chinese gold demand, negative global interest rates and a weak dollar should push gold
Market complacency is key to gold
bull market say Schroders — Investors are currently pricing in the most benign risk environment in history as seen in the VIX — History shows gold has the potential to perform very well in periods of stock market weakness (see chart)-- You should buy insurance when insurers don't believe that the «risk event» will happen — Very high Chinese gold demand, negative global interest rates and a weak dollar should push gold
market say Schroders — Investors are currently pricing
in the most benign risk environment
in history as seen
in the VIX — History shows gold has the potential to perform very well
in periods of stock
market weakness (see chart)-- You should buy insurance when insurers don't believe that the «risk event» will happen — Very high Chinese gold demand, negative global interest rates and a weak dollar should push gold
market weakness (see chart)-- You should buy insurance
when insurers don't believe that the «risk event» will happen — Very high Chinese gold demand, negative global interest rates and a weak dollar should push gold higher
Investors who want to benefit from a
bull market should buy early
in order to take advantage of rising prices and sell them
when they've reached their peak.
The chart posted below is the «new»
bull market in the TSX Venture, which began around the time the Gold Miners bottomed
in January 2016 and at a time
when sentiment was almost as bleak as it is today.
Bull market can be described as
when prices of stocks listed
in the stock exchange rise consistently for a period of time.
When the S. & P. 500 notched its high - water mark of 2872.87 on Jan. 26, it represented a roughly 325 percent increase since the
bull market began
in March 2009.
The chart below captures a fairly simple filter of instances
when the
market lost 5 % or more over a 2 - week period, from a
market peak
in the prior 6 weeks (within 5 % of the prior 52 - week high) that was characterized by a Shiller P / E over 19, more than 50 % advisory
bulls, and fewer than 25 % advisory bears.
Indeed, the stock
market was still lower three years later
in August 1982,
when stocks finally entered a sustained
bull market advance.
The ratio of the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index) to gold resides at 2014 levels
when gold was
in full bear
market retreat as opposed to the current two - year
bull market that is alive and well and making progress.
It always seemed I was cutting my profits short
in a
bull market, while frequently being too slow to reverse to the short side of the
market when the dominant trend of the broad
market reversed.
The reality is that profiting from ETF and stock trading
in a raging
bull market is not that difficult because a vast majority of stocks will trend higher, but what separates amateurs from the professionals is the ability to hold on to those profits
when the stock
market inevitably changes direction, which usually occurs quite swiftly.