Natural Variability Doesn't Account for Observed Temperature Increase In it's press release announcement, NASA points out that while there are other factors than greenhouse gases contributing to the amount of warming observed — changes in the sun's irradiance, oscillations of sea surface temperatures in the tropics, changes
in aerosol levels in the atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account for the temperature increases observed since 1880.
Combinations of satellite and surface - based observations allow us to determine trends
in aerosol levels as well as cloud albedo effect.
Not exact matches
The scientists expect further warming
in the Arctic as
levels of greenhouse gases will continue to increase and
aerosol particle emissions will likely decrease to combat air pollution
in different parts of the world.
Toxins and nicotine have been measured
in that
aerosol, such as formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acetic acid and other toxins emitted into the air, though at lower
levels compared to conventional cigarette emissions.
Earth System Threshold Measure Boundary Current
Level Preindustrial Climate Change CO2 Concentration 350 ppm 387 ppm 280 ppm Biodiversity Loss Extinction Rate 10 pm > 100 pm * 0.1 - one pm Nitrogen Cycle N2 Tonnage 35 mmt ** 121 mmt 0 Phosphorous Cycle
Level in Ocean 11 mmt 8.5 - 9.5 mmt — 1 mmt Ozone Layer O3 Concentration 276 DU # 283 DU 290 DU Ocean Acidification Aragonite ^ ^
Levels 2.75 2.90 3.44 Freshwater Usage Consumption 4,000 km3 ^ 2,600 km3 415 km3 Land Use Change Cropland Conversion 15 km3 11.7 km3 Low
Aerosols Soot Concentration TBD TBD TBD Chemical Pollution TBD TBD TBD TBD * pm = per million ** mmt = millions of metric tons #DU = dobson unit ^ km3 = cubic kilometers ^ ^ Aragonite is a form of calcium carbonate.
And for reasons that are not clear, positively charged bolts struck less frequently when the
levels of silicon dioxide and other
aerosols in the air were high.
Indeed, conventional wisdom held that higher
levels of
aerosol pollution
in the atmosphere should cool the earth's climate because
aerosols can increase cloudiness; they not only reduce precipitation, which raises the water content
in clouds, but they also increase the size of the individual water droplets, which
in turn causes more warming sunlight to be reflected back into space.
«Another potential application is biodefense, where eCAPs may be used as a rapid postexposure
aerosol treatment
in individuals after exposure to aerosolized pathogens, where the goal of immediate treatment would be to rapidly reduce bacterial dose from a lethal to a nonlethal or subclinical
level,» says Montelaro.
One group of mice was put
in a chamber that exposed them to e-cigarette
aerosol, so that their blood nicotine
levels were similar to that of smokers and e-cigarette users.
And while researchers are still striving to fully understand the health and environmental impact of increased
levels of secondary organic
aerosols in the atmosphere, studies have linked exposure to outdoor
aerosols generally to morbidity and mortality outcomes.
Those missions include the Plankton,
Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) satellite to monitor Earth's ocean health and atmosphere
in 2022; the Orbiting Carbon Observatory - 3 experiment that would track carbon - dioxide
levels from the International Space Station; the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) pathfinder Earth climate instrument for the ISS
in 2020 time frame; and, finally, the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), a joint NASA - NOAA mission that is
in orbit today and monitoring Earth from space.
Dr. Yu's research has evolved to understand interfacial phenomena at the fundamental atomic and molecular
level that are relevant to the observed changes across multiple time and space scales
in the environment, with implications
in biological systems (e.g., biofilm and cell),
aerosol, catalysis, and materials.
Their instruments recorded
levels of PM10
aerosols that are equivalent to standing next to the Marylebone Road
in central London, and high enough to exceed European Union air quality directives.
During ISDAC, they collected an unprecedented
level of data and detailed observations on Arctic clouds and
aerosols, those tiny particles
in the atmosphere that act as seeds for cloud droplets and ice crystals.
does fit the temperature trend to an acceptable
level, if one should reduce the sensitivity for CO2 /
aerosols far enough... Current models also can reproduce other transitions (LGM - Holocene) with a reasonable accuracy, but this is mainly
in periods where there is a huge overlap between temperature (as initiator) and CO2 / CH4
levels (as feedback).
Compared to the past decades, the pattern (more emissions
in South Asia) and the relative forcings are completely different, with much less relative influence of
aerosols than today (due to faster increasing CO2
levels).
``... While [ozone depleting substance] ODS
levels remain high, a large stratospheric sulfuric
aerosol enhancement due to a major volcanic eruption or geoengineering activities would result
in a substantial chemical depletion of ozone over much of the globe.»
Thus the changes
in the stratosphere are basically a function of the greenhouse gases, ozone
levels and volcanic
aerosols there.
The high
levels of
aerosol pollution to be found
in many regions of Asia up to and including the present day are well documented: see https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2018/01/economist-explains-19 and also https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/11/22/16666808/india-air-pollution-new-delhi
There is a significant amount of
aerosol formation taking place with no ionization («background
levels»), and when the sample air
in the experiment was replaced, this caused a large jump (seen as a shift along the vertical axis)
in the formation rate (the different colours
in the figure above).
Has realclimate ever done (or considered doing) an entry about the immense contribution that satellite measurements have made
in the past two - three decades,
in helping us to understand various components of the earth system (e.g., vegetation, ozone, ice sheet mass, water vapor content, temperature, sea
level height, storms,
aerosols, etc.)?
The war period and rapid economic growth that followed resulted
in very high
levels of heat blocking
aerosols in the atmosphere.
In this case, the vast preponderance of evidence and theory (such as long established basic physics) is on the side of AGW, so there would have to be a serious paradigm shift based on some new physics, a cooling trend (with increasing GHG levels and decreasing aerosol effect), and that they had failed to detect the extreme increase in solar irradiance to dislodge AGW theor
In this case, the vast preponderance of evidence and theory (such as long established basic physics) is on the side of AGW, so there would have to be a serious paradigm shift based on some new physics, a cooling trend (with increasing GHG
levels and decreasing
aerosol effect), and that they had failed to detect the extreme increase
in solar irradiance to dislodge AGW theor
in solar irradiance to dislodge AGW theory.
Thus, Victor the Troll, to contradict all that you wrote @ 221, «the dissipation of
aerosols from any given eruption IS caused by a lack of volcanic activity,» and global temperatures CAN «rise above (the)
level» «they would have been had the volcanoes not occurred» because the impact of previous volcanism would have also dissipated
in the interval.
By following the logical consequences of assuming a zero
level of «pre-eruption»
aerosols, I showed that that led inescapably to an «uncaused» rise
in temperature.
I have never seen albedo issues discussed except at geoengineering
level with
aerosols in the atmosphere, etc..
Aerosols remain one of the key uncertainties
in how fast our fossil fuel burning is pushing the climate system to warmer
levels.
We will now be able to measure and track Sun - induced space weather as well as global climactic trends
in ozone
levels,
aerosols, vegetation, volcanic ash, and Earth reflectivity, all
in high resolution; just the kind of data our civilization needs to make informed cultural, political, and scientific decisions that affect our future.
In addition, many non-sulfur-based biogenic materials of the terrestrial environment play major roles as water - and ice - nucleating
aerosols; and the airborne presence of these materials should also be enhanced by rising
levels of atmospheric CO2.
does fit the temperature trend to an acceptable
level, if one should reduce the sensitivity for CO2 /
aerosols far enough... Current models also can reproduce other transitions (LGM - Holocene) with a reasonable accuracy, but this is mainly
in periods where there is a huge overlap between temperature (as initiator) and CO2 / CH4
levels (as feedback).
Compared to the past decades, the pattern (more emissions
in South Asia) and the relative forcings are completely different, with much less relative influence of
aerosols than today (due to faster increasing CO2
levels).
What my response pointed out was that
in order to answer the question, it is necessary to posit whether the
level of
aerosols during the «pre-eruption» period was zero, or non-zero.
Note to reporters: a scientist's willingness to make predictions of the future is an indication of the current
level of understanding of the science; for example Hansen et al predicted that Pinatubo's eruption
in 1991 would produce a significant
aerosol cooling effect, and they were right; but would anyone be willing to predict that La Nina (assuming conditions set
in) will result
in a record hurricane season this fall?
I'm pretty sure you can get the grey version of that into a strat - cooling / trop - warming situation if you pick the strat absorbers right, but Andy is certainly right that non-grey effects play a crucial role
in explaining quantitatively what is going on
in the real atmosphere (that's connected with the non-grey explanation for the anomalously cold tropopause which I have
in Chapter 4, and also with the reason that
aerosols do not produce stratospheric cooling, and everything depends a lot on what
level you are looking at).
Does this conclusion raise questions about the
level of confidence
in methods used to determine the mix of ocean conditions and other influences, like
aerosols and greenhouse gases, that shape climate?
The second study meanwhile looked at how
aerosol emissions impact the Earth's temperature through a phenomenon the researchers call «transient climate sensitivity,» or how much of the Earth's temperature will change when the amount of carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere reaches twice its
level during the pre-industrial times.
Many environmental factors influence the convective life cycle
in this region, including orographic, low -
level jet, and frontal circulations, surface fluxes, synoptic vertical motions influenced by the Andes, cloud detrainment, and
aerosol properties.
At least with a model like the MIT one used
in Forest 2006 one can (if the descriptions of it are correct) set the key climate sensitivity, effective ocean diffusivity and
aerosol forcing
levels independently and with some confidence (I'm not the person to ask how much) that the simulated results reflect those settings.
In the very long term, a warming limit of 1.5 C requires total greenhouse - gas concentrations — plus the effects of
aerosols — to be below a
level of 400ppm CO2eq.
I think that is reflected
in the AR4s description of the forcing and
level of scientific understanding with respect to
aerosol forcings.
Pollutant gas and
aerosol emissions
levels in the reference scenario were checked for consistency by estimating regional surface particulate and ozone
levels using the MOZART atmospheric chemistry model.
How do we know what
levels of
aerosols existed
in what zones of the atmosphere going back into history?
Assuming that radiative forcing due to
aerosols did not
level off
in 1975, then why did temps take off then?
In fact, the rate of change of CO2
levels actually drops slightly after a volcanic eruption, possibly due to the cooling effect of
aerosols.
While SO2 emissions may have had some small role
in that period, they can't have a role
in the current standstill, as the increase of emissions
in SE Asia is compensated by the decrease
in emissions
in the Western world, thus there is hardly any increase
in cooling
aerosols while CO2
levels are going up at record speed and temperatures are stalled.
If analysis of historical data on GHG rise and net effects of
aerosols establishes beta = 0.5, then TCR = 1.2 C. But, beta is uncertain and might be as low as 0.4,
in which case TCR = 1.3 C. But, TCR (1 + beta) = 1.8 C and only has uncertainty introduced by uncertainty
in the historical GMST and CO2
level rise.
When Gort first visited
in 1951, it spent little effort on climate change issues, focusing on other aspects of our planet instead: Gort returned
in 2012 to answer puny human climatologist questions about whether climate change caused particular weather phenomena by making an obvious point: rather than struggle with theoretical analysis, you can simply use your Climate Changeometer to remove all the excess greenhouse gases and
aerosols above natural
levels and then measure the outcome.
With virtually no change
in global
aerosols, there is no way that
aerosols can explain the current standstill
in temperature with ever increasing CO2
levels.
Note also, having
aerosols a cooling means that your relationship between CO2 and temperature
in the ice - cores is blown away; dust
levels increase by three orders of magnitude going from warming to cooling, and dust changes occur before temperature changes, which occur before CO2 changes.
«warming
in the pipeline» usually assumes constant concentrations, not zero emissions (though if CO2 emissions were dropped to zero tomorrow, and all other emissions were held constant, I'd probably expect a little bit of warming before it turned over and started dropping) 2) Don't forget
aerosols: they are following the
Level 1 scenario from Wigley et al. 2009, and may actually dominate short - term temperature trends.