Continued scientific advances in understanding processes and their
simulation in atmospheric models are needed to understand how secondary influences will affect ozone.
The dependence of sensitivity on the SST warming pattern, in GCMs at least, implies that even if a valid, strong emergent constraint on ECS in coupled GCMs were found, and there were no shortcomings
in the atmospheric models of GCMs that satisfied the constraint, that would be insufficient to constrain real - world ECS.
The climate outcomes due to differences carbon - climate feedback are as different as those arising from different future emission scenarios (RCP6 compared to RCP4.5) or from differences in clouds and
aerosols in atmospheric models.
The omission of halogen
sources in atmospheric models «may lead to significant errors in calculations of global ozone budgets,» the authors write.
Despite extensive research, we still lack a quantitative understanding of the nucleation mechanism and the possible role of cosmic rays, creating one of the largest
uncertainties in atmospheric models and climate predictions.
A key
problem in atmospheric modeling is the large separation in horizontal scales between the circulations that contain the bulk of the kinetic energy and dominate the horizontal transport of heat, momentum, and moisture, and the much smaller convective eddies that provide much of the vertical transport, especially in the tropics.