Sentences with phrase «in attribution analyses»

There have also been methodological developments that have resulted in attribution analyses taking uncertainties more fully into account.

For those forcings that have been included in attribution analyses, uncertainties associated with the temporal and spatial pattern of the forcing and the modelled response can affect the results.

In fact, Min et al. used leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs; a type of principal component analysis) in their attribution analysis for extreme precipitation, implying large spatial scales.

Likewise, Bhaskar et al. (2017) may be tendentiously excluding variations in natural factors like clouds and water vapour in their attribution analysis because they wish to avoid having to explain why the contribution from human activity is modest to negligible for recent decades.

Not exact matches

One challenge with storms in Germany is that climate models have trouble accurately depicting such small - scale features, but a new generation of models that should come into wider use within the next year or two do a much better job, meaning that attribution analyses on such events should become more feasible, van Oldenborgh said.

Just days later, a real - time analysis by scientists working with Climate Central's World Weather Attribution program has found that global warming has boosted the odds of such an extreme rainfall event in the region by about 40 percent — a small, but clear, effect, the scientists say.

«Because of Arctic amplification, the cold air coming south is not as cold as it used to be,» said Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, a Dutch climate scientist involved in the World Weather Attribution analysis.

A new analysis published in the journal Environmental Research Letters establishes that seasonal forecast sea surface temperature (SSTs) can be used to perform probabilistic extreme - event attribution, thereby accelerating the time it takes climate scientists to understand and quantify the role of global warming in certain classes of extreme weather events.

Burger isn't sure whether extreme event attribution science is strong enough yet to stand up in court, but his team is in the middle of an in - depth analysis to answer just that question.

Noah Diffenbaugh, a senior fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University, said the new analysis represented a «valuable step» in attribution work, a field of climate science that's developed in the past decade in an effort to understand the role of climate change in specific extreme events.

Quantum — coherent dynamics in photosynthetic charge separation revealed by wavelet analysis — E. Romero, J. Prior, A. W. Chin, S. E. Morgan, V. I. Novoderezhkin, M. B. Plenio, and R. van Grondelle, Nature Scientific Reports, 7, 2890 (2017) ArXiv This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

An attribution analysis confirmed that in fact most of the excess return came from selection effect, [3] in which active managers demonstrated their ability to pick winning stocks within each sector.

You don't see these costs in performance attributions, unbundled management fees, or even standard trading cost analyses.

Attribution Analysis Security selection was mixed, and weakness in our IT, Industrials, and Utilities names caused the Strategy to lag its benchmark, the Russell Midcap ® Value Index.

In your blog commentaries you claim absolute attribution and do not mention these uncertainties in your analysiIn your blog commentaries you claim absolute attribution and do not mention these uncertainties in your analysiin your analysis.

Should the uncertainties in proxy data add significantly to uncertainties in attribution via this analysis?

But... from a political point of view, if there was a decade - long downturn in temperature, and all the attribution analyses showed it to be a temporary downswing with more warming expected later... no - one would listen — William]-RSB-

If she accepts that attribution is amenable to quantitative analysis using some kind of model (doesn't have to be a GCM), I don't get why she doesn't accept that the numbers are going to be different for different time periods and have varying degrees of uncertainty depending on how good the forcing data is and what other factors can be brought in.

While that does not prove that the content is equally bad, it is true that confusion in the formulation of ideas in language often mirrors confusion in the ideas themselves — and if one doesn't take the trouble to write a clean manuscript grammatically, why should that one be trusted to have taken the trouble to write one that's clean in matters of fact, attribution and analysis?

Multi-signal detection and attribution analyses, which quantify the contributions of different natural and anthropogenic forcings to observed changes, show that greenhouse gas forcing alone during the past half century would likely have resulted in greater than the observed warming if there had not been an offsetting cooling effect from aerosol and other forcings.

The fact that certain analytical conclusions about observed climate change, attribution to human causes, in particular the energy system and deforestation, projected greater climate change in the future, observed impacts of climate change on natural and human systems, and projected very disruptive consequences in the future given our current trajectory, is not due to «group think» but rather to a generally shared analysis based on evidence.

Attribution analyses normally directly account for errors in the magnitude of the model's pattern of response to different forcings by the inclusion of factors that scale the model responses up or down to best match observed climate changes.

Extending detection and attribution analysis to observed changes in natural and managed systems is more complex.

IPCC appeared to be claiming that the weight of atmospheric CO2 started with the weight of natural CO2 in 1750, but it never supplied a mass balance analysis to show that this isotopic attribution was reasonable.

However, detection and attribution analyses based on climate simulations that include these forcings, (e.g., Stott et al., 2006b), continue to detect a significant anthropogenic influence in 20th - century temperature observations even though the near - surface patterns of response to black carbon aerosols and sulphate aerosols could be so similar at large spatial scales (although opposite in sign) that detection analyses may be unable to distinguish between them (Jones et al., 2005).

For the entire Northern Hemisphere, there is evidence of an increase in both storm frequency and intensity during the cold season since 1950,1 with storm tracks having shifted slightly towards the poles.2, 3 Extremely heavy snowstorms increased in number during the last century in northern and eastern parts of the United States, but have been less frequent since 2000.11,15 Total seasonal snowfall has generally decreased in southern and some western areas, 16 increased in the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes region, 16,17 and not changed in other areas, such as the Sierra Nevada, although snow is melting earlier in the year and more precipitation is falling as rain versus snow.18 Very snowy winters have generally been decreasing in frequency in most regions over the last 10 to 20 years, although the Northeast has been seeing a normal number of such winters.19 Heavier - than - normal snowfalls recently observed in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. in some years, with little snow in other years, are consistent with indications of increased blocking (a large scale pressure pattern with little or no movement) of the wintertime circulation of the Northern Hemisphere.5 However, conclusions about trends in blocking have been found to depend on the method of analysis, 6 so the assessment and attribution of trends in blocking remains an active research area.

A recent analysis [1] by Dr Luke Harrington and Dr Friederike Otto of climateprediction.net introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA).

In another new global warming attribution study (we will soon do an overview of the results of this and similar studies), Gillett et al. (2012) perform a number of interesting analyses.

First, a detection and attribution analysis is performed for trends in SIE anomalies over the observed period.

The main objective of this study is an event attribution analysis for extreme minimum events in Arctic SIE.

I would appeal to those who influence future funding to redress the balance of academic research toward greater understanding, and thus attribution, of natural controls, for in the last analysis, it is they that have the greater power and threat.

In recent years, more and more «event attribution analyses» have appeared in the scientific literature (see 2014 BAMS Special ReportIn recent years, more and more «event attribution analyses» have appeared in the scientific literature (see 2014 BAMS Special Reportin the scientific literature (see 2014 BAMS Special Report).

Results of the detection and attribution analysis shows that these declines are attributable to the anthropogenic forcing, which is dominated by the effect of increases in greenhouse gas concentration, and that they are not caused by natural forcing due to volcanic activity and solar variability combined.

Aggregation through meta - analysis is described next, followed by joint attribution through climate model studies, and synthesis of the observed changes described in Section 1.3.

This study addresses the challenge by undertaking a formal detection and attribution analysis of SCE changes based on several observational datasets with different structural characteristics, in order to account for the substantial observational uncertainty.

«Whilst there are certainly other potential drivers of changes in the climate we know that over the last century we have greatly increased the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and, through detection and attribution analyses, we know that the rising levels of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases have driven the rise in global temperature,» King said.

Science by press release, claims of newly discovered attribution from analysis of temp data; revelation of data supposedly given in confidence; and a race to the microphone — are not suggestive of a calm, rational, unbiased piece of science.

To summarise, four out of six models / model - averages used by Shindell are included in the detection and attribution analyses whose results are summarised in AR5 Figure 10.4.

Ulric, the figure is a tentative attribution of the periodicities found in frequency analysis to a particular solar activity reconstruction.

b) failure of the climate models to predict a > 17 year plateau raises questions about the suitability of the climate models for detection and attribution analyses, particularly in terms of accounting adequately for multidecadal modes of climate variability...

«The assessment is supported additionally by a complementary analysis in which the parameters of an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) were constrained using observations of near - surface temperature and ocean heat content, as well as prior information on the magnitudes of forcings, and which concluded that GHGs have caused 0.6 °C to 1.1 °C (5 to 95 % uncertainty) warming since the mid-20th century (Huber and Knutti, 2011); an analysis by Wigley and Santer (2013), who used an energy balance model and RF and climate sensitivity estimates from AR4, and they concluded that there was about a 93 % chance that GHGs caused a warming greater than observed over the 1950 — 2005 period; and earlier detection and attribution studies assessed in the AR4 (Hegerl et al., 2007b).»

«This analysis proves that the modelling approach behind one of the main pillars of real - time event attribution undertaken is sound and applicable to a range of extreme events in regions where we have confidence in the model performance», said Karsten Haustein, lead author of the new paper.

Most of the time when corporations experience a catastrophe such as a chemical plant explosion resulting in fatalities, they look to outside entities to conduct the attribution analysis.

Their analysis of the physical changes (attribution) was restricted in scope (as Kevin Trenberth pointed out), but their statistical analysis is more broad in scope.

And in one case, a lengthy «analysis» of a recent peer - reviewed paper has been lifted, without attribution, straight out of World Climate Report, the climate «news» blog run by uber - contrarian Patrick Michaels.

The IPCC's detection and attribution analysis, which is the basis of the «very likely» attribution statement in the AR4, is based upon the following argument:

Christidis N, P.A. Stott, F.W. Zwiers, H. Shiogama, and T. Nozawa, 2009: Probalistic estimates of recent changes in temperature: a multi-scale attributions analysis.

They should also be included in any analysis looking at attribution (which, btw, is not being attempted in this thread at all).

Faith in that the warming rate and attribution were correct, faith that the GCMs produced correct outputs, faith that the writers of papers using the flawed GCMs got the analysis correct, and faith that the proposed solutions made economic sense

In addition to a deep - dive on the impact of U.S. tax reform, we'll also address the OECD's work on financial transactions, key developments in taxation of the digital economy and expert insights and analysis on key transfer pricing issues including BEPS, country - by country reporting, attribution of profits to PE's, APA's, the MLI and morIn addition to a deep - dive on the impact of U.S. tax reform, we'll also address the OECD's work on financial transactions, key developments in taxation of the digital economy and expert insights and analysis on key transfer pricing issues including BEPS, country - by country reporting, attribution of profits to PE's, APA's, the MLI and morin taxation of the digital economy and expert insights and analysis on key transfer pricing issues including BEPS, country - by country reporting, attribution of profits to PE's, APA's, the MLI and more.