With bonds paying about 2 % today, the potential
decrease in bond value seems to me like significant risk without adequate reward.
With bonds, especially, these prices are known fairly precisely and
changes in bond values have good motivation.
Below are detailed explanations of different factors that lead to
fluctuations in bond value apart from the 3 factors mentioned above:
That 23 times
increase in your bond value is a mere 1.8 times increase when the declining value of a dollar is factored into the analysis.
That said, it is true that the bondholders of major banks include pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, foreign investors and other holders that would be adversely affected by a
writedown in bond values.
In my opinion, a big part of the reason for stocks post-election jump has been simple supply & demand economics: the abrupt
crash in bond values has led and is leading to huge bond disinvestment, and much of that fresh cash found is finding its way into stocks.
Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline
in bond values.
Over $ 1 trillion
in bond value was wiped out on November 9th and 10th.