Sentences with phrase «in climate model projections»

We find exactly the same sort of flat periods in climate model projections, lasting easily up to 15 years in length.

it is found that global temperature trends since 1998 are consistent with internal variability overlying the forced trends seen in climate model projections (Easterling and Wehner, 2009; Mitchell et al., 2012b); see also Figure 1.1, where differences between the observed and multimodel response of comparable duration occurred earlier.

PLUMES (Pathways for linking uncertainties in climate model projections and effects)(2014 - 2018).

The impact of positive feedback from ESAS methane is not currently included in climate model projections.

Throughout its climate modeling phase, Exxon researchers, like outside scientists, grappled with the uncertainties inherent in climate model projections.

Not exact matches

A better understanding of the heating distributions required to robustly simulate strong MJOs in climate models will improve insights into the dynamics of the climate system and projections of future climate.

The research in Nature Climate Change signals that many climate models may be too conservative in their projections through this century, as they are not considering ice loss from the northeast portion of GreClimate Change signals that many climate models may be too conservative in their projections through this century, as they are not considering ice loss from the northeast portion of Greclimate models may be too conservative in their projections through this century, as they are not considering ice loss from the northeast portion of Greenland.

Therefore, also changes in land cover should be represented in climate models for projections of future climate,» concludes Francesco S.R. Pausata.

Two important advances since the last IPCC assessment have increased confidence in the use of models for both attribution and projection of climate changes.

Richard Betts, head of climate impacts at the Hadley Centre of the U.K.'s Met office presented to reporters in Copenhagen today a new analysis of modeling data showing how conserving tropical forests is going to be crucial if the world is to make a target of 2 ˚C, even under the most conservative projections of how much carbon the forests contain.

The goals of the project include reconstructing extreme climate changes from the recent past (1894 - 2014), using historically referenced data to assess near - future global climate model projections, and to ultimately use this analysis to investigate ecological problems in Chesapeake Bay, such as eelgrass diebacks.

Dr Pete Falloon of the Met Office Hadley Centre, who led the climate modelling, said «State - of - the - art high resolution climate models were used in this project alongside the latest UKCP09 climate projections.

The researchers then used a mathematical model that combined the conflict data with temperature and rainfall projections through 2050 to come up with predictions about the likelihood of climate - related violence in the future.

The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth's climate system.

«Prior analyses have found that climate models underestimate the observed rate of tropical widening, leading to questions on possible model deficiencies, possible errors in the observations, and lack of confidence in future projections,» said Robert J. Allen, an assistant professor of climatology in UC Riverside's Department of Earth Sciences, who led the study.

«Any soil moisture increases consistent with climate model projections are expected to increase soil respiration in both vegetation types.

«When we look forward several decades, climate models predict such profound loss of Arctic sea ice that there's little doubt this will negatively affect polar bears throughout much of their range, because of their critical dependence on sea ice,» said Kristin Laidre, a researcher at the University of Washington's Polar Science Center in Seattle and co-author of a study on projections of the global polar bear population.

On March 31 Muller testified in front of Congress and confirmed what mainstream climate scientists had been saying: Earth is warming in line with the projections of climate models.

Climate model projections neglecting these changes would continue to overestimate the radiative forcing and global warming in coming decades if these aerosols remain present at current values or increase.

Computer model projections of future conditions analyzed by the Scripps team indicate that regions such as the Amazon, Central America, Indonesia, and all Mediterranean climate regions around the world will likely see the greatest increase in the number of «dry days» per year, going without rain for as many as 30 days more every year.

While this underestimate does not call into question the response of climate to carbon dioxide concentration in the IPCC models, the researchers say, it does suggest that a better understanding of what happened during the last 50 years could improve projections of future ecosystem changes.

The trends driven by earlier snowmelt are likely to as they are «are very much in line with the projections of future climate» from climate models, study co-author Berit Arheimer of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute said.

When this model was then applied to the future, they found that in a world of continuing high greenhouse gas emissions, the threshold for widespread drought - induced vascular damage would be crossed and initiate widespread tree deaths on average across climate model projections in the 2050s.

Scientists have developed and used Global Climate Models (GCMs) to simulate the global climate and make projections of future AT and other climatic variables under different carbon emission scenarios in the 21st cClimate Models (GCMs) to simulate the global climate and make projections of future AT and other climatic variables under different carbon emission scenarios in the 21st cclimate and make projections of future AT and other climatic variables under different carbon emission scenarios in the 21st century.

«The new work improves our understanding of history, allowing better model tests and allowing better assessment of how the ice responded to climate changes in the past,» Alley said, «and this will help in making better and more - reliable projections for the future.»

Air pollutant emission inventories are essential in measuring the impact of pollution on air quality and the climate, as they are fed into atmospheric and climate models to make projections for the future.

«There are some climate projection models that suggest sugar maple may not prefer the climate so much in our neck of the woods in the future.

In summary the projections of the IPCC — Met office models and all the impact studies (especially the Stern report) which derive from them are based on specifically structurally flawed and inherently useless models.They deserve no place in any serious discussion of future climate trends and represent an enormous waste of time and money.As a basis for public policy their forecasts are grossly in error and therefore worse than useless.For further discussion and an estimate of the coming cooling see http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.cIn summary the projections of the IPCC — Met office models and all the impact studies (especially the Stern report) which derive from them are based on specifically structurally flawed and inherently useless models.They deserve no place in any serious discussion of future climate trends and represent an enormous waste of time and money.As a basis for public policy their forecasts are grossly in error and therefore worse than useless.For further discussion and an estimate of the coming cooling see http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.cin any serious discussion of future climate trends and represent an enormous waste of time and money.As a basis for public policy their forecasts are grossly in error and therefore worse than useless.For further discussion and an estimate of the coming cooling see http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.cin error and therefore worse than useless.For further discussion and an estimate of the coming cooling see http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com

Of the many inane arguments that are made against taking action on climate change, perhaps the most fatuous is that the projections climate models offer about the future are too uncertain to justify taking steps that might inconvenience us in the present.

Themes: Aerosols, Arctic and Antarctic climate, Atmospheric Science, Climate modelling, Climate sensitivity, Extreme events, Global warming, Greenhouse gases, Mitigation of Climate Change, Present - day observations, Oceans, Paleo - climate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, Miscellclimate, Atmospheric Science, Climate modelling, Climate sensitivity, Extreme events, Global warming, Greenhouse gases, Mitigation of Climate Change, Present - day observations, Oceans, Paleo - climate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, MiscellClimate modelling, Climate sensitivity, Extreme events, Global warming, Greenhouse gases, Mitigation of Climate Change, Present - day observations, Oceans, Paleo - climate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, MiscellClimate sensitivity, Extreme events, Global warming, Greenhouse gases, Mitigation of Climate Change, Present - day observations, Oceans, Paleo - climate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, MiscellClimate Change, Present - day observations, Oceans, Paleo - climate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, Miscellclimate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, Miscellclimate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, MiscellClimate in the media, Meeting Reports, Miscellaneous.

Understanding how well climate models represent these processes will help reduce uncertainties in the model projections of the effects of global warming on the world's water cycle.

An overall objective, aside from the desire to assess alternative means to combine human social system models with climate models, is to provide a rational basis to determine whether human risk perception and associated changes in behaviors can significantly affect climate projections.

These current uncertainties are also reflected in future climate projections by these models.

Future ocean projections for the year 2100 were compiled from all available data generated by Earth Systems Models as part of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Taylor et al., 2012) as in Mora et al. (2013).

In addition, exclusion of human - related impacts such as irrigation, land use, and water diversion from most current climate models makes reliable projection of drought even less certain (Sheffield and Wood 2008).

We show historical trends in snowmelt and runoff timing; examine climate factors that most influence these patterns; and present model projections for stream runoff in the future.

We examine historical trends in total annual streamflow; discuss what climate factors most influence these patterns; and present model projections for the future.

Though irrigation is one of the major human practices that alters the Earth, it is not often accounted for in current climate models or climate change projections.

Having better economic models should increase confidence in projections of the effects of various policies, and greatly improve communication with climate modelers.

The climate projections show on this map are based on Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 (van Vuuren et al., 2012) experiments run by global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) exercise (Taylor et al., 2012).

considering what today's best available climate models project regarding Montana's future, and how certain we can be in those projections.

Much of the uncertainty in projections of global climate change is due to the complexity of clouds, aerosols, and cloud - aerosol interactions, and the difficulty of incorporating this information into climate models.

As research leaders in developing and using models to provide scientific insights into weather and climate change, Qian and others are striving to understand uncertainty in systems and modeling to improve projections and help prepare vulnerable regions for potential climate change impact.

Climate model projections show a warmer Montana in the future, with mixed changes in precipitation, more extreme events, and mixed certainty on upcoming drought.

RCP (representative concentration pathways) Imagined plausible trends in greenhouse gas emissions and resulting concentrations in the atmosphere used in climate projection models.

Dr. Yun Qian, atmospheric and climate modeling scientist at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, was invited to organize and direct an international workshop on «Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection» in Trieste,climate modeling scientist at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, was invited to organize and direct an international workshop on «Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection» in Triestemodeling scientist at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, was invited to organize and direct an international workshop on «Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection» in Trieste,Climate Modeling and Projection» in TriesteModeling and Projection» in Trieste, Italy.

At the time, he said «the stunning finding that forests can also feed on nitrogen in rocks has the potential to change all projections related to climate change,» because it meant there could be more carbon storage on land and less in the atmosphere than climate models say.

Suzuki, T., et al., 2005: Projection of future sea level and its variability in a high - resolution climate model: Ocean processes and Greenland and Antarctic ice - melt contributions.

The analysis of processes contributing to climate feedbacks in models and recent studies based on large ensembles of models suggest that in the future it may be possible to use observations to narrow the current spread in model projections of climate change.

James Screen, a climate researcher at the University of Exeter, said in an email that while the findings are consistent with model projections and look more robust than the studies linking warming to the larger fluctuations of the jet stream, «I'd be cautious pinning the blame on Arctic warming.»