But a
reduction in coal use doesn't necessarily translate into lower carbon dioxide emissions from coal - fired power plants.
Whether or not that
decline in coal use will be speedy or ambitious enough to head off serious national and international climate change is not clear.
Although overall emissions have dropped due to pollution control devices and a
drop in coal use, regional and seasonal increases in power plant pollution could affect people's health and the environment.
A 23 percent
reduction in coal use and record warm temperatures were the main contributors to the decline in emissions.
David Victor, the University of California, San Diego, political science professor and author of «Global Warming Gridlock,» noted some subtler aspects of the announcement that point to ever more efficient coal use in China, but also unrelenting
growth in coal use — and carbon dioxide emissions.
Since China and the United States together constitute more than half of global coal production, a peak of coal use in these nations can be sufficient to ensure that the
peak in coal use is now behind us.
This reflects a modest
uptick in coal use for electricity generation in the US and an associated decline in gas use.
We referenced their numbers when we looked at the changing anatomy of U.S. oil imports, or when showing the decline
in coal use over recent years.
The region with the highest growth
rate in coal use in the IEA outlook period is in Southeast Asia, where Indonesia, Viet Nam, Malaysia and Philippines among others plan to underpin their power generation with new coal power plants.
China's massive
jump in coal use - to 3.8 billion metric tons in 2012 from 2.5 billion metric tons in 2006 - drove prices of benchmark Asian thermal coal to average $ 121 a metric ton in 2011, from less than $ 50 five years earlier.
David Streets, a senior scientist who studies historic mercury emissions at the Argonne National Laboratory in Illinois, said mercury emissions have gone down in the United States and Europe, but a
rush in coal use in some fast - growing countries like China, and a resurgence of artisanal gold mining in places like Africa, is offsetting the reductions.
The
boost in coal use is due to extreme growth in emerging markets like China and India, countries that require cheap fuel sources for electricity production in order to support their quickly growing infrastructures and populations.
The official data confirms widely discussed expectations of a reduction
in coal use first published by Greenpeace last October.
The significant
decrease in coal used to produce electricity can be attributed to three factors: overall lower electricity demand; a fuel shift to natural gas; and an offset created by more wind power production, according to Simon.
Furthermore, the government forecasts strong growth in fossil fuel use, including a four-fold increase
in coal use by 2020 that would cause large greenhouse - gas emissions.
(Arkansas recently acknowledged that due to its recent
decline in coal use, it is already meeting its 2030 Clean Power Plan emission target.)
China is aggressively embracing energy efficiency, expanding clean energy, and shuttering the dirtiest power plants to meet its planned 2020 (or sooner)
peak in coal use.
The data is preliminary and the primary driver of any increase appears to be lower than expected hydropower output in China, which in turn led to an
uptick in coal use.
In turn, this caused an increase
in coal use in Europe, but the IEA expects this to stop in 2013 and slowly decline after that.
The replacement rate is around 3 % and
growth in coal use can be conservatively estimated to be 1 %.
And the impact of China's decline
in coal use may go beyond the border.
A 23 % reduction
in coal use and record warm temperatures were the main contributors to the decline in emissions.
The US is expected to see slower decline in its carbon emissions, from an annual 1.2 % drop over the past 10 years to a decrease of 0.4 % this year, with a return to growth
in coal use, as president Donald Trump promised to rescue the coal industry.
The EIA's preliminary research shows that the largest drop in 2012 carbon emissions came from reductions
in coal use, due to both decreased demand for electricity in general and the substitution of coal with natural gas.
Australian Energy «Green Paper» foresees continuing increase
in coal use: undermines 2 °C goal and heads towards 4 °C world
The reduction
in coal use was despite an increase in the capacity of coal - fired power stations, the figures show.
Preliminary analysis of the energy use data by researcher Glen Peters suggests Chinese energy - related emissions will have fallen by 0.7 per cent on the back of the reduction
in coal use, as the chart below shows.
Significantly, preliminary analysis suggests the reduction
in coal use will mean Chinese emissions fell in 2014.
Emissions fell 1.4 % despite the current ineffective state of the Emissions Trading Scheme and increase in coal use
The strongest impact on greenhouse gas emissions came from the sharp 12.7 % drop
in coal use.
As in Australia, an important contributer to the decline
in coal use has been the increase in solar and wind power capacity.
While U.S. and European carbon dioxide emissions are expected to decline very slightly (0.2 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively), European emissions are declining less than they had in the past decade, and the United States is expected to see an increase
in coal use this year, reversing decreases since 2013.