Much of that increase can be attributed to the spike
in commodity prices over that 10 - year period, helping resource - rich regions like Nunavut, Saskatchewan, Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador post increases twice or three times the national average.
Since iron ore has been about 90 % of the companies profits over the last decade, the decline
in commodity prices over the last year have significantly hurt the companies earnings.
With that discussion, you can see already, I expect, the outlines of the way Australian policy - makers have analysed and reacted to the trends
in commodity prices over recent years.
Not exact matches
In the commodities space, oil prices are headed for their eighth consecutive week of falls on Friday, the longest losing streak since 1986, according to Reuters, after the news of a sharp drop in Chinese manufacturing increased worries over the health of the world's biggest energy consume
In the
commodities space, oil
prices are headed for their eighth consecutive week of falls on Friday, the longest losing streak since 1986, according to Reuters, after the news of a sharp drop
in Chinese manufacturing increased worries over the health of the world's biggest energy consume
in Chinese manufacturing increased worries
over the health of the world's biggest energy consumer.
However, improving
commodities prices in 2016 will help restore confidence and Canada will get back on track to sustainable growth
over the long term.
In July, when the Bank of Canada cut its policy to its current setting of 0.5 %, policy makers expressed concern over weak non-energy exports and a deep contraction in business investment brought on by the collapse of commodity price
In July, when the Bank of Canada cut its policy to its current setting of 0.5 %, policy makers expressed concern
over weak non-energy exports and a deep contraction
in business investment brought on by the collapse of commodity price
in business investment brought on by the collapse of
commodity prices.
The rollercoaster ride
in oil
prices over the past three years may be old hat to investors familiar with the
commodity's historical sensitivity to macro events (see chart below), but oil
price volatility is by no means endemic and several factors are now lining up to suggest a calmer period for crude may lie ahead.
As I've said that the 10 yr bond crossed
over 3.0 % means the US$ will be going to be weaker and weaker further and further by the 1st half of 2020 yr:) Also, the
commodity price esp WTI will be going up to the level of 70 - 80 $ no later than 1st half of May (at the earliest), or no later than 2nd week of June, and then it will be
in the range to the end of Trump Era:)
Overall, inflation expectations are marginally higher than
in the winter survey: higher
commodity prices and expected inflationary pressures
in the United States are viewed as contributing to domestic inflation
over the next two years.
They clearly did invalidate the old models
over the next few years as credit misallocation accelerated, along with the depth and direction of now - unprecedented imbalances and highly self - reinforcing
price changes
in commodities, real estate, stock markets, and other variables — what George Soros might have cited as extreme cases of reflexivity.
Most notable so far has been the boom
in the resource sector, with
commodity prices and hence Australia's terms of trade rising to historically high levels
over a number of years.
While a number of simple measures of valuation have also been useful
over the years, even metrics such as
price - to - peak earnings have been skewed by the unusual profit margins we observed at the 2007 peak, which were about 50 % above the historical norm - reflecting the combination of booming and highly leveraged financial sector profits as well as wide margins
in cyclical and
commodity - oriented industries.
Although the adjustment has been difficult, it has occurred
over a longer period of time than the boom
in commodity prices and,
in general, Canada has not lost ground relative to other advanced economies.
But [the increase
in commodity prices] is just the beginning of the story, accounting for about one - half of the appreciation of our currency
over the past decade.
Following a January rally, the global
commodities complex underwent declines
in February before partially recovering
in March; for the first quarter as a whole, the benchmark Thomson Reuters CoreCommodity CRB Index (CRB) gained 0.8 % on a
price - only basis.1 Among the 19 component
commodities tracked by the CRB, advancers had a slight edge
over decliners, buoyed by growth
in global economies and weakness
in the trade - weighted US dollar, which retreated 2.1 %, according to the Federal Reserve's (Fed's) US Dollar Index.1 Aside from robust gains for a host of agricultural products, oil and gold were also among the
commodity winners.
I expect that hard
commodity prices will fall sharply
over the next two to three years, but to the extent that
prices rise
in the short term, as they have
in the past three months, it is likely to reflect additional investment growth
in China.
In fact as I started writing more about the outlook for hard
commodity prices over the next year, I adjusted my outlook downwards and proposed that iron ore
prices would fall below $ 50 a ton before the end of the decade.
Higher crude US: CLK8 and
commodity prices CRB, +0.42 % have been the principal driver of the short - term jump
in the 10 - year break - even rate, the bond market's assessment for inflation
over the next 10 years, to 2.18 %.
A key element
in this shift is China; the value of Chinese exports to Canada tripled
over this period and Canadian exports to China, while still small relative to exports to the US, have grown steadily
in value driven by
commodity exports which have been buoyed by high
prices and huge demand
in China for key Canadian exports such as minerals (nickel, coking coal, potash, copper and iron ore), pulp and lumber.
While the appreciation of the Australian dollar
over the past year or so has restrained
commodity prices in Australian dollar terms, they remain close to their average of the past decade.
I did really well
in the rebound, especially when
commodity prices shot up
over the two years to early 2010.
The
prices of other resource
commodities increased on average by 5.8 per cent
over the three months to April, driven by increases
in the
prices of alumina, coal and iron ore.
Export
prices in SDR terms have risen sharply
over the past two years, buoyed by the steep rise
in global
commodity prices, while import
prices have remained broadly flat, reflecting competitive pressures
in global manufacturing.
Commodity prices have changed little on average over recent months and remain at high levels; the RBA Index of Commodity Prices fell by 0.8 per cent in SDR terms over the three months to January to be 10.2 per cent higher over the
prices have changed little on average
over recent months and remain at high levels; the RBA Index of
Commodity Prices fell by 0.8 per cent in SDR terms over the three months to January to be 10.2 per cent higher over the
Prices fell by 0.8 per cent
in SDR terms
over the three months to January to be 10.2 per cent higher
over the year.
Upstream
price pressures have also been boosted by the rise
in oil
prices, as well as the depreciation of the exchange rate and the increase
in world
commodity prices; producer input and output
prices have increased more sharply
over the past six months than they have since the early 1990s.
This situation has put upward pressure on international
commodity prices, many of which have increased considerably
over this period, particularly
in the resources sector, a trend that will benefit Australian exporters.
Domestic corporate goods
prices rose by 1.9 per cent
over the year to December — the fastest pace of growth since the early 1990s — largely reflecting the run - up
in global
commodity prices.
Growth
in Australia's export volumes has remained weak
over the past year or so, despite strong growth
in global demand and world
commodity prices, with total exports virtually unchanged from four years ago (Graph 31).
After rising strongly
over the second half of 2003, the RBA Index of
Commodity Prices increased by 3.1 per cent
in SDR terms
over the three months to April, to be 13 1/2 per cent above its trough
in May 2003 (Table 11, Graph 49).
The decline
in earnings
over the past year owes largely to a fall
in Australian dollar
prices, as the appreciation of the Australian dollar has more than offset rising world
commodity prices evident since mid last year (see section on
commodity prices and the terms of trade below).
For the year, the TSX has lost just
over 11 per cent of its value, primarily as a result of a decline
in key
commodities prices.
Like many companies
in the mining sector, Glencore's shares have fallen
over the past few years as
commodities prices have weakened, due to a glut of new supply.
The decision to not release detailed documents could signal a desire for the government to shift away from the public quarterly budget updates, which are meaningless
in terms of fiscal planning due to the province's dependence on fluctuating natural resource
commodity prices and have become little more than public relations exercises for the government
over the past two decades.
Finally, while mortgage arrears rates have increased slightly
over recent years, they have increased more noticeably
in regions exposed to the downturn
in commodity prices and mining investment.
Up massively from the 71 % that cited this
in our last polling, 92 % of executives stated that they were cautious to extremely concerned
over the volatility of
commodities prices.
In line with the pick - up in commodity demand, the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks freight prices for dry bulk goods, has soared to unprecedented levels over the past two years (Graph A2
In line with the pick - up
in commodity demand, the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks freight prices for dry bulk goods, has soared to unprecedented levels over the past two years (Graph A2
in commodity demand, the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks freight
prices for dry bulk goods, has soared to unprecedented levels
over the past two years (Graph A2).
Still, slowing economic growth
in China, a prolonged slide
in commodity prices, and a strong dollar continue to raise concerns about the heavy - equipment maker's near - term prospects, with negative earnings comparisons likely
over the balance of 2015.
Preliminary estimates indicate that the RBA Index of
Commodity Prices (ICP) rose by 8.7 per cent
in SDR terms
over the three months to April, to be 12.5 per cent higher
over the year (Table 9).
The global pick - up
in demand and activity has generated strong upward pressure on a range of
commodity prices over recent months, notably for oil, gold, base metals and a number of rural
commodities.
Looking forward, expansion
in production capacity for some resource
commodities, stronger
commodity prices and the improvement
in the global economy should provide a further boost to export earnings
over the coming year (see section on
commodity prices and the terms of trade).
The main contributors remain the same: declining oil and
commodity prices, renewed concerns
over the pace of expansion
in China, and the impact of rising interest rates and a strong dollar on the U.S. economy.
Even though the Australian dollar has appreciated, the RBA
Commodity Price Index
in A$ terms remains slightly above its average
over the past 10 years.
In the September quarter, the terms of trade reached its highest level in 26 years, and it is likely to have risen further over recent months given the continued strength of international commodity price
In the September quarter, the terms of trade reached its highest level
in 26 years, and it is likely to have risen further over recent months given the continued strength of international commodity price
in 26 years, and it is likely to have risen further
over recent months given the continued strength of international
commodity prices.
In Australian dollar terms,
commodity prices rose by 6.6 per cent
over the three months to April, and they were up by more than 12 per cent
over the year.
Overall, world
prices for many of the
commodities that Australia exports have held fairly steady
over the past few years, despite the weakness
in the world economy.
Like many companies
in the mining sector, Glencore's share
price has fallen
over the past few years as
commodity prices have weakened due to a glut of new supply.
Oil
commodity prices also weakened
in March, which hurt the performance of our energy holdings during the quarter, but we believe supply - and - demand dynamics will lead to higher
commodity price trends
over the long term.
Group turnover for H1 rose 7 % to NZ $ 10bn due to
commodity prices and higher volume sales (+5 % y / y), driven by strong demand for branded consumer products and ingredients (the latter turned
over NZ $ 8bn
in H1, +10 %).
In May of this year, US - based cooperative Dairy Farmers of America, was forced to deny allegations of any wrongdoing
over price fixing for some of its products, amidst an ongoing enquiry by the Department of Justice and the
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Chinese private equity firms will accelerate efforts to buy into Australian mining assets and companies
over the next 12 months, hunting for bargains
in a sector reeling from plunging
commodity prices.