Sentences with phrase «in decadal prediction»

Not exact matches

«Based on what we've found, it is possible that sea - level rise over decadal time scales will be a key storyline in future climate predictions,» he said.

Changes in the oceans occur more slowly than in the atmosphere, and this long - term memory of the ocean is a major key to seasonal and decadal predictions.

Under the Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction Using Earth System Models (EaSM) program, the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Energy will kick in a total of $ 50 million a year for 5 years.

The agencies will invest nearly $ 50 million annually in the new program, dubbed «Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction Using Earth System Models,» or EaSM for short, and expect to deliver improved versions within the next three years.

It's quite clear that if we could run our models at a higher resolution we could do a much better job — tomorrow — in terms of our seasonal and decadal predictions.

A number of recent studies linking changes in the North Atlantic ocean circulation to sea ice extent led Yeager to think that it would also be possible to make decadal predictions for Arctic winter sea ice cover using the NCAR - based Community Earth System Model...

Another interesting question concerning a new Maunder Minimum would be the impacts on decadal - scale prediction, where both internal variability and changes in TSI are competitive with changing greenhouse gases.

This is not particularly surprising, since it is expected that the importance of the new simulations will be seen in the differences between model types (i.e. including carbon cycles, atmospheric chemistry etc.), or in new kinds of diagnostics from say, the initialized decadal predictions, that weren't available before.

For weather predictions, accuracy disappears within a few weeks — but for ocean forecasts, accuracy seems to have decadal scale accuracy — and when you go to climate forcing effects, the timescale moves toward centuries, with the big uncertainties being ice sheet dynamics, changes in ocean circulation and the biosphere response.

The techniques for decadal prediction have advanced somewhat since these earliest attempts (as described in Meehl et al., 2014), but no skilful initialized predictions have yet been verified.

Remember that the ocean has a very long memory of initial conditions, and I doubt you wash these out even in multi-decadal predictions, but certainly not in decadal forecasts.

IMHO, the reason this made huge news at least in Europe (where I am now) is because it is mostly in Europe that the large weather prediction centers are pushing this idea of «decadal predictions».

Back around 2007/8, two high - profile papers claimed to produce, for the first time, skilful predictions of decadal climate change, based on new techniques of ocean state initialization in climate models.

«When it comes to decadal predictions that explain anything more than a tiny fraction of the variability in anything more than a tiny fraction of the land area, I have yet to be shown any result that says that this is possible, even theoretically...»

«When it comes to decadal predictions that explain anything more than a tiny fraction of the variability in anything more than a tiny fraction of the land area, I have yet to be shown any result that says that this is possible, even theoretically,» Dr. Schmidt said.

To this end, a new paper authored by a team led by Leon Hermanson has just appeared on - line in the journal Geophysical Research Letters that describes a decadal forecasting model developed by the U.K. Met Office and called, rather unimaginatively, the Decadal Prediction System (DePdecadal forecasting model developed by the U.K. Met Office and called, rather unimaginatively, the Decadal Prediction System (DePDecadal Prediction System (DePreSys).

There has been a recent emphasis in decadal - scale prediction, and also creating a marriage between climate and fields such as synoptic - dynamic meteorology... something relatively new (and a different sort of problem, than say, estimating the boundary condition change in a 2xCO2 world); as Susan Solomon mentioned in her writing, a lot of people have become much more focused on the nature of the «noise» inherent within the climate system, something which also relates to Kevin Trenberth's remarks about tracking Earth's energy budget carefully.

Part of the basis for the Mail's claims appears to be Latif et al's 2008 Nature paper, Advancing decadal - scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector.

As these things are fitting in category of predictable - and global decadal volcanic prediction isn't as an amusing game at this time - though the «right» volcanic events could change this into a new poplar fetish.

A common theme in the debate is that since models can not make accurate predictions on regional and decadal scales, then they can not make accurate predictions on global or century scales.

Professor Adam Scaife, the head of monthly to decadal prediction at the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: «The end of the recent slowdown in global warming is due to a flip in Pacific sea - surface temperatures.

Prediction Continued improvements in modeling decadal - scale dynamics — and longer, when ice - sheet and deep - ocean dynamics are included — will continue to affirm the multi-decade arc of strong climate science that concludes «Hansen's worldview is right.»

The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society

Could models, which consistently err by several degrees in the 20th century, be trusted for their future predictions of decadal trends that are much lower than this error?

Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end - toend decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales.

As they have matured, climate models are being increasingly used to provide decision - relevant information to end users and policy makers, whose needs are helping define the focus of model development in terms of increasing prediction skill on regional and decadal time scales.

It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et aprediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et aPrediction (Kushnir et al., 2016).

Within the confines of our work with RASM and CESM, we will: (i) quantify the added value of using regional models for downscaling arctic simulations from global models, (ii) address the impacts of high resolution, improved process representations and coupling between model components on predictions at seasonal to decadal time scales, (iii) identify the most important processes essential for inclusion in future high resolution GC / ESMs, e.g. ACME, using CESM as a test bed, and (iv) better quantify the relationship between skill and uncertainty in the Arctic Region for high fidelity models.

The missing variability in the models highlights the critical need to improve cloud modeling in the tropics so that prediction of tropical climate on interannual and decadal time scales can be improved.»

However, initialized prediction ensembles using CESM can skillfully predict low - frequency modulations in the decadal trends of Arctic sea ice, and the significant skill scores for Atlantic sector sea ice extent, in particular, suggest that CESM DP future forecasts merit serious consideration.

Members of the working group have published a paper in Climate Dynamics entitled «A verification framework for interannual - to - decadal prediction experiments.»

Motizuki, T., M. Ishii, M. Kimoto, Y. Chikamoto, M. Watanabe, T. Nozawa, T. Sakamoto, H. Shiogama, T. Awaji, N. Sugiura, T. Toyoda, S. Yasunaka, H. Tatebe, and M. Mori, 2008: Hindcasting the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in relevance to a near - term climate prediction.

The key is accurately representing the large - scale ocean circulation and associated heat transport in the climate models used to make the decadal predictions.

Ensemble decadal prediction simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) can skillfully predict past decadal rates of Atlantic winter sea ice change because they do well at predicting THC - driven ocean heat content change in the vicinity of the winter sea ice edge in the Labrador, Greenland, Irminger, and Barents Seas.

Advancing decadal - scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic Sector, Nature, 453, 84 - 88.

The US CLIVAR PPAI Panel seeks new panelists with expertise in one or more of the following areas: (a) predictability of weather / climate extremes, (b) multi-model ensembles, (c) decadal prediction; (d) application, impact, and mitigation strategies for marine ecosystems or (e) agricultural products; or (f) interactions with stakeholders and / or stakeholder boundary organizations.

You can get a quick overview of definitions, and the performance of seasonal and decadal climate predictions in these SPECS factsheets: Fact sheet # 6: Tropical Cyclone Forecasts (May 2015) Read more about SPECS: http://www.specs-fp7.eu/ According to the SPECS Dissemination work package, the fact sheets will be two - page long documents that intend to introduce basic concepts of... Read More

Mosh says «In current day practice you CAN initialize to a known state, so that is one approach for decadal prediction.»

One more thing re Mosh's observation «In current day practice you CAN initialize to a known state, so that is one approach for decadal prediction.»

A new study published in Scientific Reports has developed a state - of - the - art drought and wildfire prediction system based on the decadal climate prediction approach using the NCAR Community Earth System Model.

In current day practice you CAN initialize to a known state, so that is one approach for decadal prediction.

Decadal climate prediction of annual mean variations in total water storage (left), vegetation carbon (center), and fire season length (right panels) over the Northern US.

Although the potential predictability in our idealized modeling framework would overestimate the real predictability of the coupled climate - land - vegetation system, the decadal climate prediction may become beneficial for water resource management, forestry, and agriculture.

DECADE (2011 - 2015) Decadal climate prediction in adaptation to climate change.

There is currently less skill in predicting precipitation and other variables compared to temperature although progress is expected to be made as a consequence of the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) and other projects and investigations.

Component B, Forecasts: the ongoing production of experimental quasi-operational decadal climate predictions in support of multi-model annual to decadal forecasting and the application of the forecasts to societal needs

The experimental protocol for the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6 is described in detail in Boer et al. (2016).

The results of the DCPP are a contribution to the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (NTCP), potentially to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), and as one of the bases for the development of a WMO Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) Global Decadal Climate Outlook (GDCO) in support of applications.

«The end of the recent slowdown in global warming is due to a flip in Pacific sea - surface temperatures,» says Adam Scaife, who heads monthly - to - decadal prediction for the Met Office.

Decadal climate prediction is immature, and uncertainties in future forcings, model responses to forcings, or initialisation shocks could easily cause large errors in forecasts.