Sentences with phrase «in election forecasting»

Not exact matches

But overall, newspaper endorsements have had mixed results in influencing voters or forecasting election outcomes.

Former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, the media tycoon who narrowly lost last year's general election, has forecast that Prodi will not last much longer in power.

The consequence of missing the forecasted period, of course, would be a delay in enacting the above - mentioned election promises concerning increasing TFSA contribution limits and so on.

Patrick Caddell: The man who helped launch outsider Jimmy Carter to the presidency in 1976, Patrick was one of the first people to foresee Trump's election victory — forecasting as early as 2013 that the next election would be totally different from anything we had seen before.

His dismay with the Finance Department's forecasting record led to his commitment in the 2006 election, to create a Parliamentary Budget Officer.

As part of its 2006 election platform, the Conservative Party promised to «create an Independent Budget Authority to provide objective analysis directly to Parliament about the state of the nation's finances and trends in the national economy; require government departments and agencies to provide timely information to the Parliamentary Budget Authority to ensure it has the information it needs to provide accurate analyses to Parliament; and ensure that government fiscal forecasts are updated quarterly and that they provide complete data for both revenue and spending forecasts».

All political parties would use this forecast in formulating their election platforms.

This process is used in other countries, most notably the Netherlands, where the Central Planning Bureau plays an active role in the costing of the election platforms and the forecasting of the financial resources available.

Certainly, the Minister of Finance will forecast a surplus large enough for him to introduce the tax cuts promised in the 2011 election.

A surplus of only $ 200 million is now forecast for 2015 - 16, down $ 3.5 billion from the surplus of $ 3.7 billion forecast in its April 2013 Update, leaving the Government little flexibility to introduce new policy initiatives, or honour its 2011 election promises of introducing new tax expenditures, in advance of the 2015 election.

That adjusted forecast projected a surplus of $ 7.2 billion in 2019 - 20, allowing you to claim a balanced budget in 2019 - 20, after incorporating the net impact of your election promises.

This is election year in the U.S. and nobody can reasonably forecast the outcome except that we can be sure our politicians will take us right to the edge of the fiscal cliff, deep and wide as it is.

One possible fix: Finance Minister Joe Oliver might simply forecast a sufficient oil - price rebound in his budget, knowing whether or not he got it right won't be evident until months after the election anyway.

So here's what I think about the election: The forecasts — based on complicated models — found in the APSA's PS by real social scientists — with the exception of the one by the astute James Campbell — are, as usual, too timid in terms of picking up the impending surge....

Her predecessor had become known for her local campaigning in the area, holding onto the seat that pundits had, for consecutive elections, forecast to turn blue.

The PollyVote combined forecast, averaging across forecast types, appears to have a good track record for US presidential elections, and their analysis suggests that citizen forecasts and prediction markets typically outperform the polls in the US.

The current endeavor by Tory backbenchers to repeal the Act is based on a simple calculation — most forecasts predict that the 2015 general elections will result in another hung Parliament, in which the joint seat share of the two dominant parties, Labour and the Conservatives, will be eroded even further.

In this article, Andrea Ceron, Luigi Curini, and Stafano M. Iacus (University of Milan and VOICES from the Blogs) find that supervised and aggregated sentiment analysis (SASA) applied in proportional electoral systems produces the most accurate forecasts of election resultIn this article, Andrea Ceron, Luigi Curini, and Stafano M. Iacus (University of Milan and VOICES from the Blogs) find that supervised and aggregated sentiment analysis (SASA) applied in proportional electoral systems produces the most accurate forecasts of election resultin proportional electoral systems produces the most accurate forecasts of election results.

An article I wrote in March attempted to forecast how Hillary Clinton's campaign would seek to «win the narrative game» by defining the election as a choice between unity and division, love versus hate, hope over fear, and the like.

As it's obvious now, pre-election polling and forecast models have been terribly wrong in this election cycle as not many predicted a Trump victory.

In this article, Andrea Ceron, Luigi Curini, and Stefano M. Iacus (University of Milan and VOICES from the Blogs) find that supervised and aggregated sentiment analysis (SASA) applied in proportional electoral systems produces the most accurate forecasts of election resultIn this article, Andrea Ceron, Luigi Curini, and Stefano M. Iacus (University of Milan and VOICES from the Blogs) find that supervised and aggregated sentiment analysis (SASA) applied in proportional electoral systems produces the most accurate forecasts of election resultin proportional electoral systems produces the most accurate forecasts of election results.

Nigel Marriott in his final model now includes a forecast for party vote shares as well as the previous seat forecasts and so this is included; we have also added new models from Election Data, Elections Etc, Janta - Lipinski, Kantar Public, Michael Thrasher, Andreas Murr et al and Number Cruncher Politics.

Since our first forecast combining different indicators of the election outcome last week, the Conservatives and particularly Labour have edged up in the polls at the expense of UKIP and the Liberal Democrats.

My forecasting model for seat gains / losses at local elections has previously been a simple model based on change in party support in the polls.

The Leader and Founder of Glorious Waves Church International, Prophet Emmanuel Badu Kobi who has forecasted one - touch victory for President John Dramani Mahama again prophesized that a popular flag bearer of one of the leading political parties will fall and faint in the heat on the 2016 election campaign.

We should be cautious though in interpreting the forecast for the Liberal Democrats — for the simple reason that it has never happened before it is impossible to know what the effect of being in government is going to be on the performance of the Liberal Democrats at local elections relative to their eventual performance at the next general election.

Marked «sensitive» and sent to the work and pensions secretary, Iain Duncan Smith, two weeks after the general election, the civil service memo forecasts that «around 40,000 more... children might in the absence of any behaviour change, find themselves in poverty as a result of reducing the cap to # 23,000».

In bringing together such a wide range of information, including candidate names, previous election results, demographics, party funding information, election forecasts, and information about constituency history, the Dashboard is the most comprehensive data source for citizens seeking to find out more about their local area.

He has won two Scottish elections, the first as the largest party in a hung parliament and the second in 2011 with an overall majority, which, under the proportional voting system introduced after the 1998 devolution settlement, was forecast as highly improbable.

I will now use my nURS model described in step 4 to generate an election forecast for a variety of CON - LAB leads shown in the blue and green labels in table P0.

The 2012 results are a reminder that voter enrollment is just one factor in forecasting elections, with fundraising, incumbency, top ballot races and issues also playing an important role [ii].

A lot can change in a week — especially the last week of a by - election campaign — and any poll is a snapshot not a forecast.

The European elections, however, provide the only opportunity before the general election to assess the ability of the pollsters to forecast the share of the vote in a Britain - wide election.

The forecasting model works by combining the number of seats won by parties in the previous election with vote intentions data from polls conducted six months prior to the election — in this case the data is from November 2014.

Between 1996/97 and 2009/10 (the time of the next general election), the tax burden is forecast to rise by # 8,153 a year in real terms for every household in the UK (or by # 12,881 in cash terms);

Since then the party has been overtaken in the polls by the Tories under its charismatic leader Ruth Davidson and some are forecasting it could slip to third place in this May's elections.

Election barometer The Political Forecasting Unit's «election barometer», designed to capture the changing state of the race as it unfolds through the campaign, shows the Conservatives one point ahead of the Liberal Democrats in terms of vote share, with Labour four points furtherElection barometer The Political Forecasting Unit's «election barometer», designed to capture the changing state of the race as it unfolds through the campaign, shows the Conservatives one point ahead of the Liberal Democrats in terms of vote share, with Labour four points furtherelection barometer», designed to capture the changing state of the race as it unfolds through the campaign, shows the Conservatives one point ahead of the Liberal Democrats in terms of vote share, with Labour four points further adrift.

The Political Forecasting Unit's «election barometer», designed to capture the changing state of the race as it unfolds through the campaign, shows the Conservatives on top in terms of vote share, but Labour leading in terms of projected seats, despite trailing last or joint last in terms of vote share.

Acrimonious Contest It further predicted an acrimonious contest between the ruling NDC and the opposition NPP in November saying, «Ongoing economic weakness at a time of approaching elections will expose Ghana to a notable risk of political and social instability early in the forecast period.»

«We probably endow polls with rather more accuracy than they are capable of delivering... We still think that the polls are really the only show in town for forecasting election results despite some of the claims.

Barring any unforeseen happening ahead of the November elections, President John Dramani Mahama and the National Democratic Congress will once again secure a resounding first - round victory in the upcoming polls, a report by the Bureau of National Investigations (BNI) has forecasted.

The OBR was set up by the new chancellor in the immediate aftermath of the election with the task of supplying the government with independent forecasts on economic growth and the state of the UK public finances.

[139] An election forecasting conference on 27 March 2015 yielded 11 forecasts of the result in Great Britain (including some included in the table above).

«A new behavior prediction tool is forecasting a landslide victory for former Democratic Vice President Al Gore in the 2008 presidential election.

The original book, published in the Republican year of 2002, forecast accurately the groups that would make up the Democratic majority coalition that emerged in the 2006 and 2008 elections: blacks, Hispanics, gentry liberals, single women, young voters.

(CNN)-- Current House Speaker John Boehner and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi engaged in an elections expectations debate Sunday, with both forecasting a party victory in November.

In an article for today's Platform, Mike Smithson of PoliticalBetting.com forecasts a hung parliament at the next General Election.

He has got his own forecasting model, based on the link between performance in local elections and performance in national opinion polls.

Is David Cameron risking a repeat of that miscalculation with his forecast on the Andrew Marr Show of the steps he would take on his first day in Downing Street after the winning the election?

Meanwhile, a leaked internal analysis of Labour's performance in May's local elections, obtained by the Observer, offers a grim forecast of the party's future under Corbyn.